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2008-05-21 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Global Expert Alert: $12 for a gallon of gas is “inevitable.”
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Posted by GolfBravoUSMC 2008-05-21 17:54|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ]  Top

#1 Well if could ever drill for more and get more refineries and stop the stupid 31 flavors of gas I say we have a good shot at getting back to $2 gas.

However, we must defeat the evironweenies first.
Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader  2008-05-21 18:07||   2008-05-21 18:07|| Front Page Top

#2 I gas hits $12 a gallon in my lifetime, Darth, you won't have to defeat the enviroweenies - they will only be found dangling from lampposts!
Posted by Bobby 2008-05-21 18:27||   2008-05-21 18:27|| Front Page Top

#3 Won't help if the Fed keeps debasing the dollar dumping billions on the credit market to bailout the investors and bankers. All they do is launder move the money around so they can continue to play at our expense as reflected in those prices. Of course, they're doing it for our own good(tm). Not much different between those players and socialist bureaucrats in the destruction of value.
Posted by Procopius2k 2008-05-21 18:30||   2008-05-21 18:30|| Front Page Top

#4 If oil gets anywhere near $500/barrel, the takeover of the middle east oil fields will be irresistible. 20M barrels at $500 is $3.65 trillion/year. That will fund a lot of pork and national health care, just saying.
Posted by ed 2008-05-21 18:42||   2008-05-21 18:42|| Front Page Top

#5 (eg, oil up to $300 a barrel and U.S. pump prices up to $15 a gallon).

Feel free Mr. Hirsh to pull any old number out of your ass. Say, you wouldn't happen to be eyeball deep in oil futures, would you?

Posted by ed 2008-05-21 18:45||   2008-05-21 18:45|| Front Page Top

#6 CNN > BLITZER/CAFFERTY FILE Segment AM > IIHC, CAFFERTY's sources are telling him that PEAK OIL may occur as early as next Year = before 2010, + that a US$200-a-Barrel price is strongly anticipated to occur TWO YEARS FROM NOW [May-June 2010]???

WOT > WAR FOR OWG-NWO > = AS MUCH AS AMERS MAY NOT LIKE IT, POLITIX + LIFE, ETC. IS NO LONGER ONLY ABOUT AMERICA, OR EVEN THE WEST + DEMOCRACY, ANYMORE.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-05-21 19:10||   2008-05-21 19:10|| Front Page Top

#7 He's right. Just uncertain about the date. Between inflation and continuing demand vs. finite supply, $12 gas IS inevitable. If not in 2010 then 2020 or 2030. There will be a prolonged period of very painful global adjustment to the end of the oil age, whenever that turns out to be. But I am still optimistic that innovative humans will find another energy source - maybe nuclear, maybe bio-engineered algal biofuel, maybe high-efficiency solar-electric conversion cells, or maybe something totally unconceived-of. But unless American students start actually learning (especially math and science) in school again, the US won't be the leader in whatever new technology develops.
Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore  2008-05-21 19:15||   2008-05-21 19:15|| Front Page Top

#8 Actually, $1000 a gallon gas is also "inevitable". "Inevitable" spans an infinite amount of time.
Posted by crosspatch 2008-05-21 19:26||   2008-05-21 19:26|| Front Page Top

#9 The sooner the better. There is nothing we use oil for that can't be produced from coal or nuclear for that matter.

$500 oil will force people to make real choices (insert economics 101 argument here), rather than the faux choices of the Green sustainability crowd.
Posted by phil_b 2008-05-21 19:44||   2008-05-21 19:44|| Front Page Top

#10 Necessity is the mother of invention, and she's pregnant and expecting to deliver a healthy child shortly. These are just labor pains.
Posted by Harcourt Jush7795 2008-05-21 19:55||   2008-05-21 19:55|| Front Page Top

#11 Over 20,000 have signed up to be on the waiting list for the Chevy Volt.
Posted by doc 2008-05-21 20:12||   2008-05-21 20:12|| Front Page Top

#12 From Bloomberg,

``What we have here is a situation where essentially higher prices aren't generating any more supply,'' Paul Sankey, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg radio. ``What we have to do is keep pricing the commodity higher until demand starts falling,'' which ``is around $150 a barrel.''
Posted by phil_b 2008-05-21 20:49||   2008-05-21 20:49|| Front Page Top

#13 See also RIAN > OIL PRICE REACHES $130.00 A BARREL AND IS STILL GOING UP.

Its $4.31 a gallon now for Regular here on Guam.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-05-21 20:49||   2008-05-21 20:49|| Front Page Top

#14 I have this most remarkable tulip bulb that you really should take a look at. Very rare.
Posted by KBK 2008-05-21 20:58||   2008-05-21 20:58|| Front Page Top

#15 REDDIT> WSJ: UN OIL MONITOR [IEA] IS GETTING READY TO SLASH THE WORLD'S ESTIMATE OF CRUDE. IEA Report won't be out until November but its already clear that world supplles will be getting tighter??? On separate note, REDDIT Poster on OIL DRUM artic argues that power plants will need to begin operating more at night, and that must start de facto switch to electric cars???
Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-05-21 21:06||   2008-05-21 21:06|| Front Page Top

#16 Let me guess, we'll have 12 buck gas when we start carrying around ten megabuck bills (Like Zim-bob-way) won't seem so bad then.
Posted by Redneck Jim">Redneck Jim  2008-05-21 21:21||   2008-05-21 21:21|| Front Page Top

#17 Let's do some numbers here. The average American commutes 32 miles a day. Assuming a mix of highway and city traffic in a Honda Accord, we are looking at about 25 miles per gallon, or about 1.28 gallons a day. At $12 a gallon and 22 work days per month, his monthly gasoline cost would be $337. This compares with a monthly commute cost of about $98 today (based on $3.50 gasoline). If we get $12 a gallon gasoline, we are looking at a serious dent in the American consumer's purchasing power. Assuming average income of about $3,000 a month, gasoline has just gone from 3% of the average American's budget to just over 11%. I expect the Honda Fit (30 mpg) to replace the Accord (25 mpg) as the best-selling car in America.

Let's say the average Chinese commutes 16 miles a day. He might drive a Chery QQ, which gets perhaps 50 mpg, given a similar mix of highway and city miles. China's subsidized price is now $3 a gallon. The Chinese QQ driver's monthly gasoline budget is $21 a month. If US gasoline goes to $12 a gallon - assuming the government continues with the $0.50 subsidy, we are looking at $11.50 Chinese gasoline. Assuming no change in the exchange rate, the Chinese driver's gasoline budget just went to $80. This is not a small change. The average Chinese worker makes about $250 a month. Gasoline would go from 8% of his budget to just under 30%. I predict a lot of Chinese will simply go back to riding motorcycles.
Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei  2008-05-21 21:57|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2008-05-21 21:57|| Front Page Top

#18 Gas in Europe is $9 a gallon
Posted by Whoting Sinatra6662 2008-05-21 22:03||   2008-05-21 22:03|| Front Page Top

#19 Build an EV

Lead Acid battery breakthrough - Could Propel Hybrid Electric Vehicle Market

January 15, 2008 – Efforts to make hybrid electric vehicles more affordable for consumers achieved a major milestone today when a lead-acid test battery surpassed a 100,000 mile performance run. The Ultrabattery, developed by member companies of the Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium (ALABC), completed its 100,000 mile test run in a Honda Insight at the Millbrook Proving Ground near London in the UK. The achievement is significant because the Ultrabattery now is proven to:

• Last at least as long as nickel metal hydride (Ni-MH) batteries installed in many hybrid electric vehicles.
• Operate at a higher level of efficiency than Ni-MH batteries.
• Cost considerably less than Ni-MH batteries.

During the tests just completed at Millbrook, the Ultrabattery operated at a normalized 40kW peak discharge power standard, exceeding by a wide margin the 25 kW standard set by the US Department of Energy’s FreedomCAR program in 2003. The Ultrabattery’s performance also was better than the 28.7 kW performance in separate tests of a Ni-MH unit similar to those installed in hybrid electric vehicles sold in the U.S. and other countries.
Since the cost of raw materials in lead-acid batteries is considerably less than the cost of nickel metal hydride or lithium batteries, the performance of the new Ultrabattery could be a key factor in boosting the acceptance of hybrid vehicles among car buyers.
Posted by 3dc 2008-05-21 22:15||   2008-05-21 22:15|| Front Page Top

#20 in Northern IL Fox Valley Electric Auto Association
Posted by 3dc 2008-05-21 22:19||   2008-05-21 22:19|| Front Page Top

#21 Let's not forget that Iraq was recently said to have proven reserves (whatever that means) greater than Saudi Arabia's, and they haven't yet started exploiting the newly discovered fields. Canada is increasing their pace of extraction, and new oilfields seem to be discovered monthly, with a five to ten year timeline to exploitation. This may not be a long term problem, although it's certainly ugly for the short term.

If our oil expert could comment on how far off base I am, I'd be grateful.
Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife  2008-05-21 22:44||   2008-05-21 22:44|| Front Page Top

#22 Why do I have the feeling that this guy is invested in oil speculation hedge funds up to his eyebrows?
Posted by Anonymoose 2008-05-21 22:55||   2008-05-21 22:55|| Front Page Top

#23 Based on my earlier calculations, if gasoline does in fact go to $12 a gallon, the consumption of gasoline will dive off a cliff. If we see gasoline at $12 a gallon, it will be on the way back to $3 a gallon gasoline. For probably a decade after peak prices.
Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei  2008-05-21 22:56|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2008-05-21 22:56|| Front Page Top

#24 My car runs on salad oil... no kidding
Posted by Whoting Sinatra6662 2008-05-21 23:52||   2008-05-21 23:52|| Front Page Top

23:59 Chinegum McGurque5166
23:52 Whoting Sinatra6662
23:50 GolfBravoUSMC
23:50 Angie Schultz
23:45 Angie Schultz
23:41 Secret Master
23:30 USN,Ret. (from home)
23:23 Paul
22:56 Zhang Fei
22:55 Anonymoose
22:52 trailing wife
22:49 trailing wife
22:48 Ricky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo)
22:44 trailing wife
22:40 trailing wife
22:31 trailing wife
22:21 trailing wife
22:19 3dc
22:15 3dc
22:14 Silentbrick
22:12 Frank G
22:07 Skunky Glins 5***
22:06 Frank G
22:04 jds









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