Article

2003-04-01 Iraq

Republican Guard losses probably overestimated

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Posted by JAB 2003-04-01 02:14 pm|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 the point about Kosovo is well made - one presumes the Iraqis have learnded from the Serbs about decoys and such. On the other hand, shouldnt Iraq be different because of the presence of US ground forces, which can probe, find decoys, and attack forces that are over dispersed - isnt that the whole idea of combined arms - if he disperses we hit him on the ground, if he concentrates we hit him from the air? Which we couldnt do in Kosovo where we attacked from the air only?

Posted by liberalhawk 2003-04-01 14:39:11|| 2003-04-01 14:39:11|| Front Page Top

#2 National Review On Line's The Corner has had several posts about this.

O'Hanlon has testified before Congress that the President's Defense budgets are too high.

The Air Force went to school on the lessons of Serbia and learned a lot. And the geography of Iraq makes it hardly a complex backdrop.

Also, we are in contact with the forces that we are bombing. Eyes on the ground help a huge amount.

Also, JSTARS doesn't need to see the dug-in tank. It sees the cars driving up to it, the fuel trucks, the lunch wagons. JSTARS identifies the nodes where traffic comes and goes, and the terminuses where it goes and stays. All are then targets.

Posted by Chuck 2003-04-01 15:28:09|| [blog.simmins.org] 2003-04-01 15:28:09|| Front Page Top

#3 no doubt the 'corridors' through which we will access points around Baghdad are much more than 50% degraded and other areas much less than 50%

Posted by mhw 2003-04-01 15:41:14|| 2003-04-01 15:41:14|| Front Page Top

#4 One way to corroberate the losses is noting that additional troops are being drawn down from the north and placed in the south. We keep putting people into the north, and old hasbeen keeps weakening his defenders up there. That can only mean that he's REALLY worried about the troop strength in the south.

I went into an area in Laos after a Buff arclight strike (I was one of those that helped develop "boxes", and they thought this would help me do that). Think of a piece of hard clay ground in west Texas plowed to a depth of 20 feet - about fifteen times. Huge trees five feet in diameter were splintered into toothpicks, then the toothpicks broken. NOTHING lived in a strip three miles long by a half-mile wide. We have new, precision bombs that can target a specific window on a building, but percussion and shrapnel are still the main killing force.

Drop enough weapons on someone's head, and even if his skin is intact, his mind is jello. I can well envision a 50% kill after five days of heavy bombing.

The big question is, how much equipment do the survivors have, and what kind of condition is it in? Can't fight a war with T-55 tanks if the barrel is bent in the middle.

Posted by Old Patriot 2003-04-01 19:03:16|| 2003-04-01 19:03:16|| Front Page Top

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