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2004-04-10 Iraq-Jordan
DEBKA: US Troops Pull out of Major Centers
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Posted by lyot 2004-04-10 6:38:48 AM|| || Front Page|| [11126 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 I wish we had some alternative "exclusive military and intelligence sources" to provide a more level-headed analysis. Surely a lot of these claims are easily fact-checked.
Posted by virginian 2004-04-10 11:39:45 AM||   2004-04-10 11:39:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 I don't dismiss Debka out of hand and all the journalists are holed up in Baghdad. So who knows what happening but the report of Sunnis fleeing Mosul in large numbers has a certain verisimilitude, if the Kurds are mobilizing. Scores will be settled. And facts on the ground created.
Posted by Phil B  2004-04-10 11:53:54 AM||   2004-04-10 11:53:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Marines Move Third Battalion to Fallujah

Pass the salt, please.
Posted by Parabellum  2004-04-10 12:10:28 PM||   2004-04-10 12:10:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Journalistic situation normal: sky is falling, doom impending, all is lost.
Posted by Matt 2004-04-10 12:21:55 PM||   2004-04-10 12:21:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 As with all Debka posts, there is likely an element of truth.

The sad fact is that our relatively small occupation force (vs. Army projections) was based on the idea that the Iraqi Police and other security forces could pick up the slack. It's clear that they're doing nothing to help maintain order and are, at least sometimes, joining the insurrection.

We are in a bad negotiating position now that that IGC, which we are attempting to prop up as a legitimate sovereign authority, is opposing us rather than optting for order.

I presume our troops can get to safety and protect themselves, but there is no way we can maintain total control without the IP, etc. contributing to civil order.
Posted by JAB 2004-04-10 12:27:21 PM||   2004-04-10 12:27:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Some of this is just Israeli chauvinism - they think know best. And to Israelis that means using limited force to kill limited numbers of terrorists. The reality is that Israeli indecisiveness has encouraged terror for literally decades. Instead of paying the bill at once, they've been paying this bill for decades, with the attendant negative consequences for the Israeli economy.
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-04-10 12:28:44 PM||   2004-04-10 12:28:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 JAB: I presume our troops can get to safety and protect themselves, but there is no way we can maintain total control without the IP, etc. contributing to civil order.

I think the problem has been the IP in Fallujah. Instead of contributing to order, they've been contributing to chaos. This is why we have the kind of situation we're encountering there. We've been trying to buy them off, and this hasn't worked. It's time to purge the Fallujah IP, and perhaps impose direct American rule there. The solution may be to hire IP from the Kurdish part of Iraq - people who don't have local ties and are harder for local mobsters to intimidate.
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-04-10 12:34:12 PM||   2004-04-10 12:34:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 What is DEBKA? I read about half of this report, freaked out, and scrolled down to the message section. I'd like to know before I invest any time into reading this post. Enlightenment is requested. Thanks.
Posted by ex-lib 2004-04-10 1:19:13 PM||   2004-04-10 1:19:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Debka is, just like Stratfor, a private compagny that 'sells' intelligence on the web.. It's an Israeli compagny, and there often a bit biased. As long as you keep that in mind, it's often a usefull source of information.. (for instance , regarding the abductions in Iraq.. They wrote this already 2-3 months ago..)
Posted by lyot 2004-04-10 1:24:37 PM||   2004-04-10 1:24:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Debka also had Saddam on the Syrian vacation coast and in Belorussia.
Posted by Shipman 2004-04-10 1:51:08 PM||   2004-04-10 1:51:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 not Saddam, but other high ranking officials.. (this turned out to be true though !) ..
Posted by lyot 2004-04-10 2:02:57 PM||   2004-04-10 2:02:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 I believe this entire experience must make the western democracies (U.S. and Europe) really review what it takes to fight and pacify these Quasi-Mob style groups. Put yourself in the shoes of somebody in Iraq. If the cross the Insurgents what happens? They capture, rape, and murder your family and then you. If you cross the Americans what happens? You may get captured and put in a nice prison with 3-square meals. If you talk bad/back to the insurgents? You get killed. You talk back to the americans, you get on TV.


This same problem has caused the US and the U.N. problems in most of the peacekeeping operations around the world. This is why the U.N. has been found standing around while atrocities happen.


If the world was honest and really wanted to combat this type of despotism it may be time to revisit the Geneva Convention and what rules should be in place during a occupation (i.e. peacekeeping operation). If you truely trust your armies (as I believe most the western armies can be trusted) then we should review what worked after WWII. The local commanders were given wide powers to be the local constable, judge, jurry, and executioners. I believe the current lack of punishiment for fighting the americans right now is why this thing is escalating out of control. I also believe that is why they want some form of government up and running that can start trying and executing the people we catch.


Keep in mind that at the point Japan surrendered the island was highly armed to repel a invasion. Once we started occuping we went around and not only rounded up all the Firearms, but we even took their Swords. If you understand anything about Japaneese culture at that point you would know that this was highly offensive. And I don't buy for a minute that soley the coorporation of the Emperour is what made this work. The military had already shown that they would do what they wanted. I am guessing some heavy handed tactics is what did it.


It seems to me the Iraq war is not over. At this point I would work with the Kurds to develop an army, screw the rest of the country. I would then deploy a special division (like we have at falloga) and work from town to town just like we did with Tikrit and we are doing with Folloja. First establish that we are collecting weapons. Give it a week. Make it know anybody found with weapons will be shot. Plain, simple. This is the same thing we did in Germany. When the week is over start thru the town. Anybody found with weapons is given a quick on the spot trial and is shot.


Unfortunately the rest of the western countries either do not understand this is what is required and will not allow it. Therefore I see no choice here but eventually loosing. Unless of course another major attack is carried out in a western country. Then maybe?
Posted by Patrick 2004-04-10 2:12:15 PM||   2004-04-10 2:12:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 ex-lib: Debka is a rather interesting source of intel rumors. Maybe about 50% of every sentence they write turns out to be true; however the wrong part is often hugely important and changes the gist of the info 180degrees.

They also have a wierd obsession with Imad Mughniyah, blaming him for everything from 9/11 to fleas on dogs.

In other words, I call baloney here.
Posted by someone 2004-04-10 2:48:46 PM||   2004-04-10 2:48:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 yeah, but they did correctly predict the wave of abductions several months ago..
Posted by lyot 2004-04-10 4:53:02 PM||   2004-04-10 4:53:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Patrick> "It seems to me the Iraq war is not over."

Ya think??

You can choose to see this as the halfpoint of the war, start of the second half, the *important* half... or you can choose to see it as the starting point of a whole new war.

What you can't do is think that Sadr is but a detail. A couple days ago I said he's as important as Saddam -- I'm revising this now to say that he's *more* important than Saddam.

Saddam wasn't allied with the global Islamofascists and Sadr is.

I'm adding a WOT Future concerning him.
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-04-10 5:22:04 PM||   2004-04-10 5:22:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Aris,

so one could say the WOT is only now starting in Iraq.. (with the alignement Sadr /islamofacists)?
Posted by lyot 2004-04-10 5:25:31 PM||   2004-04-10 5:25:31 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 lyot> Yes, in my view.

Up to now the whole war on Iraq and Saddam's overthrow had been utterly trivial in relation to the WOT, except only in the way it paved the path for *this* offensive by the Syria-Sadr-Iran axis.
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-04-10 5:32:08 PM||   2004-04-10 5:32:08 PM|| Front Page Top

19:48 Iván Guzmán de Rojas
00:19 Concerned Citizen
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