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2004-04-05 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Lux 2004-04-05 5:30:24 AM|| || Front Page|| [11131 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Yesterday, I suggested that our forces use airpower to destroy militia roadblocks in Sadr slum. Looks like that is what is happening today. The Shia militia have no experience in fighting an organized enemy, let alone American armor and airpower.
With this and the Fallujah operation underway, the real killing time is here. The media will go apeshit, especially the hard-core collaborationists like Al Jazeera and Reuters. It wouldn't bother me a bit if some of them fell afoul of Black Flag vigilantes during all the confusion.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-04-05 6:11:35 AM|| 2004-04-05 6:11:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Sadr city will fall quickly, but we need the big man himself. I hope he's found and killed trying to ~~hide~~ escape

Posted by Frank G 2004-04-05 8:04:50 AM|| 2004-04-05 8:04:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Al-Sadr should have been dead a long time ago. We need to make it clear to these clerics that they need to STFU. Arrest him, have the Iraqi GC try him as a traitor, and kill those who riot afterwards. The country will be a better place afterwards, I guaran-damn-tee.

Posted by AllahHateMe 2004-04-05 8:10:08 AM|| 2004-04-05 8:10:08 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 I'm pissed that we didn't do this earlier. We've been screaming for months that Sadr needs to go away. Between his militia, his courts (where he actually had the balls to arrest an Iraqi policeman...) and his "newspaper" I've been shocked that we waited for the situation to explode before finally deciding to wax this scumbag. I hope we've learned a lesson here and don't tolerate this crap from anyone else.

I think the problem is we were trying so hard to show them what the rule of law and freedom were all about that we allowed those goals to take precedence over the goal of creating security.

Posted by Damn_Proud_American 2004-04-05 8:10:23 AM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com] 2004-04-05 8:10:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Damn..Proud...American

I think you have a basically correct diagnosis except for one thing. We should have also had an armed ex pat Iraqi battalion in the liberation and then we could have put that battalion in charge of some of the clean up jobs. I suppose it wasn't possible to do this given the technical demands and the problem of getting slam dunk anti Saddam people in such a battalion.

Another problem is that after the liberation we should have had some hard nose 'law and order' type proclamations right away.

Posted by mhw 2004-04-05 8:22:31 AM|| 2004-04-05 8:22:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 I believe we have a 20,000 bomb. Leveling his mosque might get the message across. As I heard earlier, Bush isn't a Carter or Clinton. Thank you !

Posted by Bill Nelson 2004-04-05 8:48:44 AM|| 2004-04-05 8:48:44 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 This is the start of the war on Iraq that *really* has to do with the war on Terror. The destruction of the secular fascists did nothing but set the stage for the conflict that'd be actually important, the one between Islamofascism and secular liberals.

(And btw I'm using "liberals" here in the sense that some people talk about "liberation" of Iraq, not as the opposite of conservative.)

And if the Islamofascists win, then Saddam's overthrow only served create the axis of countries you were supposedly warring against.

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-04-05 10:02:36 AM|| 2004-04-05 10:02:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Key points

1. Center of confrontation seeems to be, unsurprisingly, poorer Shiite sections of Baghdad, esp Sadr City.

2. BUT - reports of violence in Kufa, Najaf, Karbala, Basra.

3. BUT - reports of Mehdi army withdrawl from Kufa, peaceful resolution in Nassariyah, Brits trying to resolve Basra peacefully. Limited info from Najaf and Karbala.

VERY BIG QUESTION - is this uprising across the Shiite zone, or largely confined to Sadr City?

4 .How are local Iraqi forces responding. Ive seen reports that Iraqi police in Kufa are cooperating with Mehdi army, and a report that ICDC forces fired on Americans. Most reports however indicate Iraqi forces are avoiding battle and basically running the hell away/

So next BIG QUESTION - are the Iraqi forces simply running away - which would fit in with what we've thought - these (ICDC and IP) are decent folks, but poorly trained and equipped, able to carry water for coalition forces in raids, but not yet able to act on their own, much less face open battle - OR are these guys totally unreliable and worthless????

5. Where is Sadr??? It is clear now that the CPA will try to arrest him, not for treason but for the murder of Grand Ayatollah Al Khoei. Is he in Sadr City? How is he hidden? Etc.

6. What will the other Shiites do? Sistani has called for "calm and negotiations" - Sistani is NOT backing the uprising, but it sounds like he pressing the CPA NOT to arrest Sadr. Reports of talks between Sadr and forces closer to Sistani - Badr brigades, Dawa, etc. United Front unlikely - Sadr may trying to ensure that they push IGC and CPA NOT to arrest him personally - see next question

7. WHY NOW????? Spark seems to be coalition arrest of Yacoubi, an aide to Sadr, on charges of conspiracy to murder Gr. Ayat. al Khoie. Based on that Sadr called his forces to war. Did this come to close to Sadr??? Is he afraid we were about to arrest him, and go for it while he was still strong???? Perhaps unleashing a long developed plan as John Burns of the NYT says? Was he trying to take advantage of the situation in Fallujah, and the pressure the US is under there??? Is he worried about the steady movement toward handover to Iraqi soveregnty??

What is Sadrs intention now - war to the death, or to make a point and then negotiate??? If the latter how will the coalition respond - clearly we dont want to have him around anymore - but can we get SOLID IGC support for crushing Sadr, if Sadr offers to negotiate??? What if the IGC splits on this, with SCIRI and Dawa favoring negotiations - can we get enough in negotiations so that we can avoid splitting the IGC at this crucial point??? Or do we say to hell SCIRI and Dawa and Sistani and go for broke ourselves. If the latter, how many troops do we need, and what will offer to get more allied troops???

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-05 10:38:05 AM|| 2004-04-05 10:38:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 AP now reports Al Sadr is in Kufa, surrounded by armed followers.

Why - one would think hed be safer in Sadr City, a dense slum, much for difficult for the US to operate in than a small town. Was the Coalition already deeply penetrating Sadr City??? Is the above disinfo??

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-05 11:42:02 AM|| 2004-04-05 11:42:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Reports yesterday said both Sadr City and his home were surrounded yesterday - so he was cut off.

Posted by .com 2004-04-05 11:57:09 AM|| 2004-04-05 11:57:09 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Aris, your explanation of what you meant by "secular liberals" was not entirely clear; perhaps you meant "the secular liberated" ?

And "were supposedly warring against" really shouldn't be past tense; we have been at war continually since 9/11; Iraq is merely a battlefield in that war. If Iran is suspected to be behind the latest outbreak among the Shia, then Iran could be the next battlefield.

Posted by Carl in N.H 2004-04-05 1:04:53 PM|| 2004-04-05 1:04:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 WaPo article this AM implies Sistani et al would like to see Al Sadr arrested, but dont want to be seen calling for it - essentially want Coalition to do their dirty work for them. Imply that Coalition didnt move against Al Sadr earlier, in hopes Sistani et al would deal with him.

Well, now we ARE doing the dirty work, while Sistani washes his hands of the matter. This should result in a lowering of the value placed on Sistani and his positions.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-05 1:33:22 PM|| 2004-04-05 1:33:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Carl> I could have used "secular democrats", but as has been mentioned several times here, democracy isn't all there is to freedom. "Liberal" is probably the best word around to use for people in love with personal liberties, even though in America (and to a lesser extent in Britain) it seems to also carry the connotations of either "progressive" (it being the true opposite of 'conservative') or of "socialist" (as the word "liberal" was once used as a euphemism for "socialist" and it stuck)

Anyway, wrong usage or not, I used it in my earlier post as the opposite of "fascist".

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-04-05 1:39:03 PM|| 2004-04-05 1:39:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 More from Sistani et al
(Reuters) Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has turned down an appeal by Iraq's powerful Shi'ite Muslim establishment to renounce violence, a leading cleric said Monday.
An aide to Mohammad Bahr al-Uloum, a member of the U.S.-installed Iraqi Governing Council, said Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, regarded as Iraq's most powerful cleric and a rival of Sadr's, supported the Iraqi seminary's appeal.

"The Hawza (seminary) is unanimous on this," the aide said.

"We asked Moqtada (al-Sadr) to stop resorting to violence, occupying public buildings and other actions that make him an outlaw. He insists on staying on the same course that could destroy the nation."

He said Sadr refused to meet a religious and tribal delegation at the main mosque of Kufa, near the holy city of Najaf, where he is staging a sit-in with armed followers.

"The delegation met Moqtada's aides, who did not express interest in relying on wisdom and patience," the aide said.

U.S. authorities occupying Iraq issued an arrest warrant for Sadr Monday in connection with the killing of a senior Shi'ite cleric a year ago.

Iraq's U.S. governor, Paul Bremer, termed Sadr an outlaw Monday, a day after battles between Sadr's militia and U.S.-led coalition troops in Baghdad and near Najaf killed 48 Iraqis, eight American soldiers and one Salvadoran soldier.

For the past week, Sadr has been at the head of violent anti-American protests. His followers have sworn to fight back if attempts are made to arrest him.

Unlike the Shi'ite religious establishment, which has historic alliances with Iraq's merchant class and has cooperated with the U.S.-led occupation, Sadr has denounced the occupation and demanded the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

His brand of nationalistic Islam appeals mainly to poor young Shi'ites who grew up under a crippling economic embargo and repression by the former Baathist government of Saddam Hussein.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-05 4:29:43 PM|| 2004-04-05 4:29:43 PM|| Front Page Top

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