Archived material Access restricted Article
Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Mon 03/03/2014 View Sun 03/02/2014 View Sat 03/01/2014 View Fri 02/28/2014 View Thu 02/27/2014 View Wed 02/26/2014 View Tue 02/25/2014
1
2014-03-03 Europe
Ukraine mobilizes army, loses part of its navy
Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by Steve White 2014-03-03 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11129 views ]  Top

#1 There is a lot going on here that the average American is not going to understand. Historically, Crimea is not an ally of Ukraine, in fact, they were enemies for centuries. Catherine the Great built the first Russian port in Sebastopol in the 18th century. Sebastopol is as important to the Russian navy today as Pearl Harbor was to the US in the 1940's.

The current "government" of Ukraine, such as it is, is extremely anti-Russian and there have been noises from some sectors of wanting to join NATO. Russia is not going to allow Crimea to become part of NATO. Russia is not going to risk a repeat of the Crimean War situation of the middle 1800's.

As long as Kiev will respect the autonomy of Crimea, things will probably be ok, otherwise, if Kiev attempts to "Ukranian-ize" Crimea, there will be trouble and there isn't much Ukraine or anyone else is going to do about it. Crimea will always be in the Russian orbit.
Posted by crosspatch 2014-03-03 00:34||   2014-03-03 00:34|| Front Page Top

#2 Ukraine is the game, Crimea is the excuse. Have a look at the map of pipeline routes that tranist Ukraine into Europe. The opening is set, soon the middle game will begin. Russia will not risk direct military conflict on an "inavsion" type scale. They need to seize what they can quickly then hold and wait for winter and remind European politicians who really controls the thermostat. Then Europe will turn a deaf ear to Ukranian cries, press will be excluded as in Georgia. It will be Russia freeing Ukraine from the Fascists or maybe a "stabilizing regime" to ensure warm bottoms in gay Paris. The spice must flow. He who controls the spice, controls the universe. Prophetic, almost.
Posted by jefe101 2014-03-03 01:13||   2014-03-03 01:13|| Front Page Top

#3 Dune comments aside, if Kiev leaves Crimea alone, they will probably be OK.
Posted by crosspatch 2014-03-03 01:26||   2014-03-03 01:26|| Front Page Top

#4 What exactly do you mean by OK?
Hope clouds observation.
Posted by jefe101 2014-03-03 02:25||   2014-03-03 02:25|| Front Page Top

#5 Kiev leaves Crimea alone, they will probably be OK.

They haven't been Ok until now.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2014-03-03 05:02||   2014-03-03 05:02|| Front Page Top

#6 
Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-03 09:20||   2014-03-03 09:20|| Front Page Top

#7 This map of the Crimean Invasion is making the rounds on the net, click map for larger version.

Posted by Crarong Hatrack8773 2014-03-03 09:24||   2014-03-03 09:24|| Front Page Top

#8 Excellent CH, thanks for post the preliminary OB.

Link to above site.
Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-03 09:36||   2014-03-03 09:36|| Front Page Top

#9 Croosppatch. There are no historical relationship between Crimea and Ukraine. Uhraine has not been an independent country since the Rus of Kiev that fell to the Mongol hordes. Later it was disputed between Poland, Russai and the Turks. About Crimea when it was invaded by Tsarist Russia it was ruled by the Tatars. I don't know who toiled in the fields, tatars or ukranian slaves but I can definitely tell you that there was nothing called Ukraine and the Ukranians didn't rule over Crimea. The only reason Crimea has been part of Ukraine was because the latter inherited the boundaries arbitrarily set by the Tsars and Stalin.
Posted by JFM 2014-03-03 10:53||   2014-03-03 10:53|| Front Page Top

#10 What is a group of baboons called?

It is a myth that a group of baboons is called a "Congress." There was a political email chain that circulated a few years ago that made this claim. A "congress" can be a meeting or session of any group. However, according to most scientific-related sites, a group of baboons is actually called a Troop.

Russian Troops have been in Crimea going on 3 days now.

Posted by Claitch Lumplump5553 2014-03-03 10:59||   2014-03-03 10:59|| Front Page Top

#11 Russian Troops have been in Crimea going on 3 days now.

And it's quite likely they'll be there a while longer.
Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2014-03-03 12:33||   2014-03-03 12:33|| Front Page Top

#12 It will ultimately depend on what Crimeans want. They aren't going to sit well with the edicts coming out from the thugs currently running Kiev such as trying to ban the Russian language in a majority ethnic Russian autonomous republic.

If Kiev respects Crimea's autonomy and allows the Crimeans to make their own choices, there will not likely be any major loss of life. If Kiev attempts to usurp Crimean autonomy and make it more directly subordinate to Kiev, there will likely be a war, Kiev will lose, and there isn't much anyone else is going to do about it.

It all comes down to whether or not Kiev respects Crimea's status as an autonomous republic or not. If they try to ignore that autonomy, all bets are off.
Posted by crosspatch 2014-03-03 12:42||   2014-03-03 12:42|| Front Page Top

#13 This particular issue needs to be looked at in the historical context of Crimea and Russia and in context with the strategic importance of Sevastopol to Russia. This is less a "Ukraine" issue and more a "Crimea" issue and really needs to be kept in that context. My personal opinion is that Russia is protecting herself strategically and really has little interest beyond Crimea but would be prepared to go farther if Kiev challenges Russia strategic interests with regard to Sevastopol and the surrounding Crimean Republic.
Posted by crosspatch 2014-03-03 12:46||   2014-03-03 12:46|| Front Page Top

#14 Crimea is the shiny. Keep your eyes on the eastern oblasts of the Ukraine. That's the shooting war waiting to happen.
Posted by OldSpook 2014-03-03 13:40||   2014-03-03 13:40|| Front Page Top

#15 Russia has nukes. Ukraine does not. The rest is detail. Take note, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.
Posted by Iblis 2014-03-03 14:48||   2014-03-03 14:48|| Front Page Top

#16 ...Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia.
Posted by Procopius2k 2014-03-03 15:08||   2014-03-03 15:08|| Front Page Top

#17 By the way "crosspatch", the real "thugs in Kiev" were the Russian authoritarian gangsters who looted the country and got chased out. Ah, but you knew that.

Your phasing is straight from Russian propaganda as is your ethnic justification of an invasion by an authoritarian nationalistic socialist Fuhrer Putin; As Aesop said an ass is always given away by his bray. Care to take off your mask, gospodin Donkey?
Posted by OldSpook 2014-03-03 16:37||   2014-03-03 16:37|| Front Page Top

#18 OS: You forgot to mention the Presidential, er, ex-presidential Mansion. Yunokovich was living like Trump wishes he could.

Posted by Charles 2014-03-03 19:15||   2014-03-03 19:15|| Front Page Top

#19 I for one am happy that the FSB is taking time out of its busy day to read Rantburg!
Posted by Secret Master 2014-03-03 19:45||   2014-03-03 19:45|| Front Page Top

23:02 Pappy
22:56 Pappy
22:09 Rob Crawford
22:04 JosephMendiola
21:54 phil_b
21:48 JosephMendiola
21:02 Kojo Spinelet6673
20:46 swksvolFF
20:35 Hannibal Barca
20:27 Procopius2k
20:15 Richard Aubrey
19:49 Besoeker
19:45 Secret Master
19:37 Richard Aubrey
19:25 Florida Al
19:15 Charles
19:12 DarthVader
19:08 DarthVader
19:03 JosephMendiola
18:58 JosephMendiola
18:56 JosephMendiola
18:47 JosephMendiola
18:13 Airandee
18:12 Iblis









Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com