Article

2007-02-08 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Steve White 2007-02-08 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11130 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Kudos to some good people in the Treasury and other departments for putting the squeeze on the Mad Mullahs and that big haired freak in North Korea. There's a lot more going on here than some milquetoast UN sanctions.

Posted by Classical_Liberal 2007-02-08 01:16|| 2007-02-08 01:16|| Front Page Top

#2 Good work by the Treasury boys. They've done a bang-up job in the war so far, from everything I've heard.

Unfortunately, sanctions won't dissuade a fanatical leadership. Look at North Korea, their citizens are freezing to death and starving, and it didn't stop the government from going nuclear.

Posted by gromky 2007-02-08 02:40|| 2007-02-08 02:40|| Front Page Top

#3 Thanks to crushing regulation, taxation, and the euro, the EU's unemployment and inflation numbers are pretty close to the Iran's. I.e., Europe's self-appointed elites have voluntarily achieved against their own subjects what the US has had to actively pursue against an enemy state.

Posted by exJAG 2007-02-08 06:29|| 2007-02-08 06:29|| Front Page Top

#4 I had the idea that real unemployment in the under-30 age group was around 50%, and that suicide and drug use are both at epidemic levels? With all Iran's business troubles, I find it very difficult to believe that net after inflation growth of the economy to be in the 5% range, more like China or India than even the US. I mean, even the EU appears to me to be better situated than Iran, and aren't they in the net 1% growth rate?

Posted by trailing wife 2007-02-08 06:42|| 2007-02-08 06:42|| Front Page Top

#5 Things are bad. The Tehran stock exchange is down about 30% in the past 2 years and their official currency rate has decline by about 10% during that time. By my caluclations all the stocks on the exchange come to a market cap of below $3 billion (about 10% of the market cap of CVS Drugs).

The Tehran stock market is at:

http://www.tse.ir/qtp_27-04-2048/tse/

currency history is at:

http://www.farsinet.com/toman/exchange.html

Posted by mhw 2007-02-08 08:38|| http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/]">[http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/] 2007-02-08 08:38|| Front Page Top

#6 Counterbalanced by Iran-China trade. In 2001 trade was $3.3 billion, in 2005, $9.2 billion.

Posted by Theans Hupeatle5489 2007-02-08 10:06|| 2007-02-08 10:06|| Front Page Top

#7 "Counterbalanced by Iran-China trade. In 2001 trade was $3.3 billion, in 2005, $9.2 billion."

good point... how much more does this send them into Chinas bed?

Posted by Thealet Hupeatle2938 2007-02-08 10:38|| 2007-02-08 10:38|| Front Page Top

#8 1. Re NKor comparison. Iran govt does not have nearly the degree of control over society that Kimmie has over Nkor. Its an authoritarian society, not a totalitarian society. That makes it that much more vulnerable.

2. 5% growth. Remember when your labor market is growing fast, just creating enough jobs to keep the new workers marginally employed creates high growth figures. A third world country that DOESNT achieve high growth figures is in real trouble (and yes, there are quite a few of those) In any case, I suspect much of that growth is due to the increase in the price of oil, which still overwhelms any problems they are having in its production.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-08 10:56|| 2007-02-08 10:56|| Front Page Top

#9 LH got it. Iran's huge baby boom population has been entering the workforce for the past 10 years. Iran 2006 Population Pyramid

Posted by ed 2007-02-08 11:13|| 2007-02-08 11:13|| Front Page Top

#10 Liberal Hawk,
Unfortunately, the extra money is not going into job creation. The young are still unemployed and have the highest heroin addiction rates in the world.

Also high numbers of new job entrant does not cause high economic growth rates. It creates a NEED for high growth rates. If those rates are not forthcomming, you experience a drop in real per capita GNP (e.g. Saudi Aradia).

Al

Posted by Frozen Al 2007-02-08 12:05|| 2007-02-08 12:05|| Front Page Top

#11 U.S. and Western pressure on Iran is squeezing its economy, feeding the inflation and joblessness that have swelled under its controversial president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Any day now we'll see a lift-the-sanctions effort to "mitigate the suffering" of the Iranian people. I don't think tougher sanctions have a snowball's chance in Hades of getting implemented. I wonder how long before the mullahs start parading dead babies around for the MSM/UN crowd.

Posted by xbalanke 2007-02-08 12:13|| 2007-02-08 12:13|| Front Page Top

#12 re. 5% economic growth.

Iran's economic growth came from selling oil at $40 in 2004 to $53 in 2005 and to $60 in 2006, and spending the proceeds.

Posted by DoDo 2007-02-08 12:31|| 2007-02-08 12:31|| Front Page Top

#13 actually to some degree a rise in the labor force DOES create economic growth, by forcing down wages, increasing availability of labor, making it easier to start profitible industry, either for exports, or import-substitution. You still need capital, to create good jobs, and thats an issue, to be sure.

KSA is rather different I think, since their labor force has fairly extragavant expectations of what reasonable employment looks like, or so ive been led to believe.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-02-08 13:38|| 2007-02-08 13:38|| Front Page Top

14:09 wxjames
23:51 KBK
23:38 KBK
23:12 Barbara Skolaut
23:12 sinse
23:07 sinse
23:03 sinse
22:50 Angaviling Thomoter8773
22:38 liberalhawk
22:38 Biff! Sock! Kapow!
22:37 liberalhawk
22:36 Anonymoose
22:36 Fleck Graish5949
22:32 SteveS
22:32 Mullah Lodabullah
22:31 liberalhawk
22:25 Alaska Paul
22:24 Omolurt Elmeaper6990
22:21 Broadhead6
22:19 Broadhead6
22:02 JosephMendiola
21:43 Alaska Paul
21:40 Barbara Skolaut
21:40 Alaska Paul