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2009-01-13 Home Front Economy

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Posted by Anonymoose 2009-01-13 15:58|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top

#1 This is why I believe this downturn will be a full blown depression in most parts of the world rather than a "deep" rescission. The raw and base manufacturing supply lines are shutting down.

Posted by DarthVader 2009-01-13 16:17|| 2009-01-13 16:17|| Front Page Top

#2 The problem is that while the interbank market has been thawed, the letter of credit market is still frozen. People want to trade, but they can't be assured of payment so they aren't shipping. So Darth is right, this will be a depression, including in the US, though the greatest political repercussions should be in China

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2009-01-13 16:25|| 2009-01-13 16:25|| Front Page Top

#3 America gets the flu, the world gets pneumonia. Remember the line about all our trade being dependent upon each other - well, all lines lead to America. They been far more dependent upon us than us on them.

Han Solo: You said you wanted to be around when I made a mistake, well, this could be it, sweetheart.
Princess Leia: I take it back.

Posted by Procopius2k 2009-01-13 17:09|| 2009-01-13 17:09|| Front Page Top

#4 I disagree with depression outlook. Some of the top economists that saw this coming see it as a L-shaped recession rather than U-shaped recession or depression.

Don't get happy. A L-shaped recession that lasts 3-5 years is really really bad. But your checking and savings are safe in a FDIC insured bank. T-Bonds are also safe.

If the FDIC did not exist, I would agree with the depression theory.

Posted by Poison Reverse 2009-01-13 18:03|| 2009-01-13 18:03|| Front Page Top

#5 has fallen by 18pc year-on-year

Epik collapse? 18% few big screen, damn, how can we continue to function?

Posted by .5MT 2009-01-13 18:05|| www.cybernations.net]">[www.cybernations.net] 2009-01-13 18:05|| Front Page Top

#6 Does this mean that the cargo container nuke scenario can now go from Pakistan to Europe free of charge?

Posted by Laurence of the Rats">Laurence of the Rats 2009-01-13 18:10|| 2009-01-13 18:10|| Front Page Top

#7 There is something going on here beyond what we are being told. This smells like manipulation more than just an economic collapse.

Posted by crosspatch 2009-01-13 18:28|| 2009-01-13 18:28|| Front Page Top

#8 Yup, the stores are still full of sh*t. When the shelves are bare, I'll believe that intl. trade has come to a halt.
I'd say shippers want the govt. to subsidize their business too. They see all the handouts and figure they'll give it a try.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2009-01-13 18:38|| 2009-01-13 18:38|| Front Page Top

#9 International trade has not come to a halt. It has slowed. I work for a company that trades internationally. 3 weeks ago orders were almost nil, but the last 2 weeks have seen a marked increase in overseas orders. Nothing like back in the Spring or Summer but still positive.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2009-01-13 20:16|| 2009-01-13 20:16|| Front Page Top

#10 bigjim-ky, this is something I'm trying to remember from 20 (twenty) years ago, but shipping trade has a lag of 3 to 6 months before it hits the shelves. In other words, if it's true then we won't see it until April or July at latest.

Posted by AlmostAnonymous5839">AlmostAnonymous5839 2009-01-13 20:29|| 2009-01-13 20:29|| Front Page Top

#11 Poison Reverse: Don't count on the FDIC. Just yesterday it was let slip that the Schumer-caused failure of Indy-Mac bank in California, actually has outstanding debts $10B greater than known. They had been foisting bad loans off onto Freddy Mac.

But the FDIC is now on the hook for that extra $10B, and they only have about $35B in reserves, total.

Though the FDIC can directly tap into the Treasury, the assumption has long been that there would be something in the Treasury for them to tap into. And this may no longer be the case.

Once that now $25B is committed, the FDIC will likely be unable to insure accounts for even $1, much less a quarter million dollars each. That they just raised from $100k.

This does not look good.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-01-13 21:23|| 2009-01-13 21:23|| Front Page Top

#12 I thought Soros just bought Indy-Mac a few days ago?

Posted by 3dc 2009-01-13 21:43|| 2009-01-13 21:43|| Front Page Top

#13 I'm sorry, but if shipping is down 9 percent in one part of the world and 12 in another etc. That's a long ass way from a grinfing halt. And the low rates are an obvious result of over capacity. Some shippers are going to have to fold. Big friggin deal.

I honestly hope this recession is worse than I think it will be. The worse it is, the harder it is on China and our other enemies.

Never thought I'd say this, but we might have to thank our donk friends for crippling our enemies.

Posted by Mike N. 2009-01-13 22:55|| 2009-01-13 22:55|| Front Page Top

#14 That may be true, Mike N., but coming in second does not mean we are off the hook.

Posted by Alaska Paul in Haines, AK 2009-01-13 23:04|| 2009-01-13 23:04|| Front Page Top

23:54 JosephMendiola
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