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| It's Not Victory, It's War That Matters. Will Israel Invade Lebanon? | |||||||||||
| 2024-09-20 | |||||||||||
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Kirill Semenov [REGNUM] On the morning of September 19, Israeli warplanes attacked southern Lebanon after 32 people were killed and more than 3,000 injured when pagers and radios exploded across the country.
In addition, at least three drone attacks were carried out by Hezbollah in the Kiryat Shmona and Beit Hillel areas near the Lebanese border. A shell also hit the northern Israeli community of Ya'ara, wounding several more people. Tensions on Israel's northern front escalated after Defense Minister Yoav Galant vowed to begin a "new phase of war" with Hezbollah. Speaking at an air base yesterday, Galant said: "This requires courage, determination and persistence from us." In turn, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously presented a proposal to the cabinet, adding a new official goal of the war - “the return of security to the North and the return of its citizens.” TWO VERSIONS However, the "untimely" exploding pagers indicate that the promised war in Lebanon is unlikely to resemble a simultaneous large-scale invasion of IDF brigades, as happened in 2006. Although such a scenario cannot be ruled out. Perhaps Israel had planned to blow up Hezbollah pagers on more important occasions, such as simultaneously with a military operation in southern Lebanon and the start of an assault on the border fortifications of the Party of God. However, no decision was made to do so, and there was no way to postpone the action. But here Hezbollah itself provoked the Netanyahu regime to use the schemes that were planned for the “X” hour, that is, for the moment of the direct invasion. Al-Mayadeen, citing European security sources, reported that Hezbollah's Operation Arbaeen against the IDF's Unit 8200 intelligence headquarters at the Glilot base on August 25 resulted in the death of 22 IDF soldiers and the wounding of 74 more.
8200 is a signals intelligence unit within the Israeli military's Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN). In English-language military publications, it is known as the "Central Collection Unit of the Intelligence Corps." Operations such as the pager bombings in Lebanon are precisely the unit's responsibility, and in this case, it looks like an act of revenge.
The massive strikes on Hezbollah bases, launch pads and missile depots in late August did not weaken the organization's potential and, apparently, mostly fell flat. The same applies to the IDF strikes on the Yemeni port of Hodeida, which failed to harm the Houthis' potential.
At the same time, there is another version. In recent days, Israeli leaders have become concerned that Hezbollah might detect the threat posed by the pagers. So Benjamin Netanyahu, the military commanders, and the heads of intelligence services decided to detonate the explosives rather than risk Hezbollah discovering them. Israel's concerns that led to the decision to carry out the attack were first reported by Al-Monitor, which reported that two Hezbollah militants had raised suspicions about the pagers in recent days. However, this version rather complements the first, since in any case it is obvious that the decision on a land invasion of southern Lebanon had not been made at the time of the pager explosion. Another issue is that the current cyber attack on Lebanon, although it did damage Hezbollah, was not as damaging as it might have seemed at first glance. Most of the dead and wounded were civilians: doctors, teachers and other employees who used pagers from the same batch that was prepared by Israeli intelligence services. Children were also injured and killed.
The European Union condemned the actions of the initiators of the "action", calling them unacceptable. Many qualify the actions of the special services as a terrorist act. The United States also hastened to distance itself from this attack. According to Axios, minutes before the pagers started exploding, Yoav Galant called US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and told him that Israel would soon carry out an operation in Lebanon. The US minister said the Israelis had not told the US the details, but added that Galant's call was an attempt to avoid leaving the US completely in the dark about Israel's actions. However, Washington was running out of time to dissuade Tel Aviv from the attack. At the same time, Israeli and US officials have already stated that Hezbollah itself could launch a retaliatory operation by carrying out a large-scale attack on Israel. Therefore, regardless of which version is more true, it is likely that the Netanyahu regime has “passed the ball” to Hezbollah and will wait for a massive attack to justify the start of a full-scale war in southern Lebanon. Although the option of Israel’s preemptive action cannot be ruled out. One way or another, the Israeli cabinet, despite its bellicose rhetoric, is under pressure from the Americans. And even despite Netanyahu’s ability to find ways around certain American prohibitions and even act against the will and desire of the Biden administration, the invasion of Lebanon is not an issue where Washington’s position can be completely ignored. Therefore, the Israelis will most likely try to follow the path of increasing escalation in order to prepare the ground for an invasion, if they do decide to do so. The difference from the previous stage of the confrontation with Hezbollah will be the speed of action. Let us recall that the finger has been on the trigger of the invasion of Lebanon for a long time and one of the main obstacles is Washington's position. Shortly after the Hamas attack in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel almost started a preventive war against Hezbollah. At the time, Israeli intelligence reported that the Party of God fighters were allegedly ready to cross the border into Israel and launch a full-scale invasion in support of Hamas. In turn, the IDF had already prepared combat aircraft and deployed units on the border with Lebanon, awaiting orders. Israeli officials apparently notified the White House around 6:30 a.m. on Oct. 11, 2023, that they were considering preemptive strikes and asked for support. But senior U.S. officials, including President Joe Biden, have strongly opposed them. According to CSIS, which interviewed U.S. officials, Americans were concerned that Israeli strikes on Lebanon could trigger a regional war and were skeptical of Israeli intelligence that a Hezbollah attack was imminent. Therefore, since then, the Netanyahu regime itself has been trying to provoke the “Party of God” into actions that Washington would consider an appropriate pretext for intensifying the IDF’s military efforts in southern Lebanon. Another issue is that the mass explosions of equipment have not met with understanding in Washington, at the very least. And if Hezbollah continues to act within the framework of its previous strategy, launching limited strikes on Israeli territory, then for the US this will hardly become a compelling reason to support the IDF's Lebanese campaign. Moreover, the red banner of revenge for the murdered Ismail Haniyeh still flutters over the dome of the Iranian Jamkaran mosque, and any escalation in Lebanon could lead to the very same retaliatory strike from Iran that has been long postponed in the hope of the IDF leaving Gaza. This significantly increases the risks of regional escalation. WAR WITHOUT END The “Axis of Resistance” already sent an important signal to Israel when a Houthi missile penetrated Israeli air defenses on September 14, reminding Israel that the retaliatory strike had been postponed, but not cancelled. The Houthis showed that such an attack, if massive, consisting of dozens or hundreds of missiles, could be very destructive. And if Israel decides to invade southern Lebanon, it will be a step toward regional escalation, which is exactly what both the US and Iran are trying to avoid.
But even this does not guarantee that the scenario of October 7, 2023 will not be repeated in the northern regions of Israel, but this time by the "Party of God", whose military potential is incomparably greater than that of Hamas. That is why Israel needs a security zone in southern Lebanon. For now, the IDF will likely choose to proceed cautiously, increasing the number of air attacks and then possibly attempting to attack individual Hezbollah strongholds near the border from which ATGMs are launched. If such limited operations are successful, the IDF will likely move on to the next stage – a larger ground campaign. But each operation will have a “face-saving” option, which will allow any combat action to be declared a success, even in the event of heavy losses. After that, the air offensive against Hezbollah will continue, and new attempts will be made to switch to ground operations using the same scheme, probing the enemy’s weak points. In any case, what matters to Netanyahu is not victory, but war. And not just any war, but a war without end. Related: Unit 8200: 2024-09-13 2 jets, few plans and no clue: Probe finds air force unready and in the dark on Oct. 7 Unit 8200: 2024-08-26 'Iranian Trap': Hezbollah's Attack on Israel Gives Netanyahu a Free Hand Unit 8200: 2024-04-07 UK paper reveals ID of 8200 intelligence unit chief, says he accidentally outed himself | |||||||||||
| Posted by:badanov |
| #7 hezballah hamas? iran is the enemy |
| Posted by: irish rage boy 2024-09-20 16:45 |
| #6 Well, Mohammed didn't have a pager, cell phone or walkie talkie. So Israel is just helping Hezbollah get back to the good old days. |
| Posted by: Rambler in Virginia 2024-09-20 15:58 |
| #5 Deliciousness from Skidmark’s Russia Today link: On September 17, a series of explosions rocked Lebanon, as pagers used by the militant group Hezbollah for communication were detonated. The blasts occurred in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a stronghold of Hezbollah, as well as other parts of the country and Syria. According to Reuters, the explosions lasted for more than half an hour, claiming at least 12 lives, including the ten-year-old daughter of a Hezbollah member. Thousands were injured, including Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon. The next day, Lebanon witnessed another wave of detonations, this time involving communication devices and equipment installed in cars and motorcycles, as reported by Al Hadath. The explosions occurred in Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley, leaving around 100 people injured and at least three dead in the town of Sohmor. Al Jazeera confirmed that the blasts were linked to portable devices used by members of Hezbollah. Iran’s Press TV added that radios and ICOM communication devices were among those that exploded. Al Hadath also reported that laptops and equipment installed in vehicles were destroyed, some of which were unrelated to communication devices. A security source told Reuters that the portable radios were acquired by Hezbollah five months ago, similar to the pagers that were also sabotaged. As reported by Reuters and AFP, one explosion occurred near the funeral of Hezbollah fighters who died the previous day. According to Al Jazeera, the explosions were also heard near Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut. Videos shared online show burned-out cars and destroyed scooters and motorcycles. Witnesses said the devices made strange noises and vibrations before the detonations. Hezbollah issued a warning to Lebanese citizens, urging them to dispose of all gadgets and electronic devices So the entire country — plus, probably, the Shiite sections of Syria and Iraq — are incommunicado except for in-person gossip? Kudos to Mossad and Unit 8200. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2024-09-20 14:25 |
| #4 ^The last 17 years was just a Special Military Operation? |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-09-20 13:49 |
| #3 [RT]Everything is explosive: Israel and Lebanon are on the brink of war |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2024-09-20 13:10 |
| #2 So is REGNUM the RT understudy? |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2024-09-20 09:37 |
| #1 Al-Mayadeen, citing European security sources, reported that Hezbollah's Operation Arbaeen against the IDF's Unit 8200 intelligence headquarters at the Glilot base on August 25 resulted in the death of 22 IDF soldiers and the wounding of 74 more. That's a lie. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-09-20 00:10 |