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2024-08-26 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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'Iranian Trap': Hezbollah's Attack on Israel Gives Netanyahu a Free Hand
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Lebanese Hezbollah has announced the launch of its own retaliatory operation in response to the Israeli assassination of one of the movement's high-ranking commanders, Fuad Shukr.
The movement attacked Israeli territory with missiles and drones without waiting for Tehran to decide on its response to the death of Shukr and a number of other high-ranking members of the "Axis of Resistance."
Hezbollah's operation, although it took place in isolation from the rest of the "Axis of Resistance," was not criticized by official Tehran or other Iranian proxy groups. This suggests that the strike on Israeli territory was provocative in nature and was intended to draw the Israelis into the fight in new directions.
INTERRUPTED ANSWER
The Lebanese Hezbollah operation lasted several hours and was positioned as an "artillery preparation" before more serious actions. Representatives of the movement believe that they managed to catch the Israeli leadership by surprise and once again debunked the myth about the impenetrability of the Israeli air defense system.
The Israelis, for their part, claim that they knew in advance about the planned action, and therefore were able to almost completely disrupt it by carrying out preventive strikes on Lebanese territory. For these purposes, the IDF deployed more than 100 aircraft - a quarter of the national air fleet.
However, the game, apparently, was worth the candle. According to the IDF, Hezbollah initially planned to use about 6,000 missiles and drones in the attack, for which it concentrated more than 1,500 launchers in its control zone.
However, after the massive air raid, the movement was able to carry out only 320 launches and hit 11 targets, a significant portion of which, according to statements by the Israeli General Staff, turned out to be false. Among the thwarted "tasty" targets, in particular, are the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv and the base of the special intelligence unit "Unit 8200" in Ramat Hasharon.
Each side predictably portrays itself as the winner. Hezbollah believes that it deserves to “win on points” — because it was able to carry out strikes on Israeli territory in the face of “internal betrayal,” which deprived them of the element of surprise, and even hit a number of targets.
In addition, the thesis about a certain “special goal” for which this adventure was started migrates from statement to statement by the Hezbollah press bureau. It is expected that the veil of secrecy will be slightly lifted by the movement’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, whose speech, according to tradition, is scheduled to take place within 24 hours after the operation.
Israel, however, reports on the successful repelling of “aggression by pro-Iranian agents.” Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that, unlike the April incident, the attack was repelled without the participation of foreign partners and exclusively by IDF forces.
Although in this case there is a certain amount of cunning in the statements of the Israeli General Staff. A few days before the exchange of blows, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Army, General Charles Brown, urgently arrived in the Middle East. He probably not only participated in coordinating the actions of the Israelis, but also simultaneously interacted with other regional allies of Washington.
In case Hezbollah's individual action is picked up by other Iranian proxy groups operating in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
PUSH TO THE NORTH
After the exchange of massive blows, both sides took a tactical pause. Hezbollah focused on regrouping before the next stage of the retaliatory operation, and Israel - on developing a new response strategy. The country's leadership took 48 hours to think, introducing a state of emergency in the country.
The question of how to proceed next hung in the air.
On the one hand, the Israeli government – and especially the far-right populists within it – have received the long-awaited “casus belli,” which allows them, if not to launch a comprehensive operation against Hezbollah, then to significantly increase the strike force on the Israeli-Lebanese border.
The current state of affairs has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a free hand. He sees the hypothetical opening of a “second front” against the Lebanese Hezbollah as a good way to strengthen his authority and, at the same time, complete the defeat of the “security forces opposition” led by former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, which has been accusing Netanyahu of indecisiveness for the past year.
Possible objections from official Beirut are not taken into account: any discontent from Lebanon is rebuffed with the argument that the country’s leadership “condones” the actions of Hezbollah, thereby threatening the security of the countries in the region.
At the same time, the United States is holding back Israel's possible attack. The White House and the Pentagon, although they are assisting the Israelis in repelling Hezbollah's attacks, are unlikely to agree to igniting a new conflict in the Central Command's zone of responsibility. Especially in conditions where they have not managed to completely "extinguish" the previous one, which engulfed the Gaza Strip.
Washington will probably do everything in its power to dissuade Israel from a large-scale operation in the border area – at least while negotiations on establishing a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continue.
Given that the next round starts on August 25 and that even after the exchange of blows between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel has not withdrawn its delegation, Washington's exhortations are working so far.
It is not worth excluding, however, that Washington is trying to buy some time to prepare its regional allies for a quick and consolidated response to the threat – in case Hezbollah’s operation ultimately turns out to be an Iranian trap, and Israel’s invasion of Lebanon escalates into a clash with the entire “Axis of Resistance.”
The anti-Iran coalition is now largely occupied with finding out whether Hezbollah acted autonomously from Tehran or whether it played the role of bait. If these fears are even indirectly confirmed, Israel is unlikely to engage in a direct confrontation with Hezbollah – but in retaliation it will increase the frequency of targeted liquidations of the movement’s commanders, including its top leadership.
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Posted by badanov 2024-08-26 00:00||
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File under: Hezbollah
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Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-08-26 03:03||
2024-08-26 03:03||
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