Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Turkey's most popular opposition politician was arrested on March 19. Ekrem Imamoglu, 53, is accused of corruption and supporting terrorist organizations. In addition to being a prominent opposition figure, Imamoglu has held the key position of mayor of Istanbul since 2019.
At one time, the country's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: whoever controls Istanbul controls Turkey. Because the current president came to the Olympus of political power from the same position of the mayor of Istanbul. Now the young and ambitious Imamoglu has entered this path.
Imamoglu emerged as the main opposition figure after the 2019 municipal elections. At that time, he ran for the Republican People's Party (CHP), the party of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic. Imamoglu was able to beat the contender from the ruling Justice and Development Party, former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, and won by 20,000 votes.
But then Erdogan came on the scene, accused Imamoglu of stealing votes, the Central Election Commission recounted them and awarded the victory to Yildirim. But then the street intervened. Under pressure from protests, the results of the vote were annulled, and Imamoglu won a landslide victory in the re-run.
Imamoglu's triumph, on the one hand, made him the clear leader of the CHP and a direct competitor to Erdogan in the upcoming presidential elections, but on the other hand, it created obstacles for his future career.
After the politician called the Central Election Commission's decision to cancel the first elections in Istanbul "stupid", he was accused of insulting the authorities, judicial investigations were launched and, at the end of 2022, he was sentenced to almost three years in prison.
Imamoglu was also banned from political activity, partly because of this, the alliance of opposition parties did not risk nominating him as their leading candidate in the 2023 presidential elections.
To be fair, it should be acknowledged that Imamoglu is no less disliked within his own party than Erdogan. He was a competitor of former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş. Kılıçdaroğlu even preferred to lose the presidential election rather than follow in the footsteps of the Istanbul mayor.
At the same time, the defeat, not only in the presidential but also in the parliamentary elections, forced the Republicans to think about renewal.
Kılıçdaroğlu was removed from his post as chairman, and the new leader became Özgür Özel, who favored İmamoğlu.
In the spring of 2024, when Erdogan's AKP lost municipal elections for the first time, Imamoglu was re-elected as mayor of Istanbul and further increased his influence in the country and within the party.
The opposition is now insisting on holding early elections and criticizing the government for the ongoing crisis of the national currency. But they need to decide on a candidate, and Ozel proposed holding a "primary" a month ago. Imamoglu has a high chance of winning, so another major opposition figure, Ankara Mayor Yavaş, is against it.
Feeling his strength and the support of party functionaries, Imamoglu officially entered the race for the presidency on March 8–9. He began touring the country, starting with Izmir, which he called “the city of the first shot and the last victory.”
ERDOGAN'S ENEMY NO. 1 IS DEAD, BUT BEHIND HIS DEATH LURKS THE GHOST OF AN IDEA
Imamoglu, who is taking over power and popularity among Republicans, is becoming a "stone in Erdogan's shoe". The current term is the last for the Turkish president; he will have to leave in 2028.
And with the successor, everything is very complicated.
At one time, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Suleyman Soylu, was considered such, but he discredited himself during the pandemic. The sons are also no good, because they were involved in various corruption scandals.
They also predicted Berat Albayrak's son-in-law, but in 2020 he resigned as finance minister due to health reasons, although it is more likely that he could not cope with the crisis and inflation.
Last year, Western media focused their attention on another of the president's sons-in-law, drone developer Selcuk Bayraktar. There is also the highly experienced former intelligence chief and current Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
But can they compete with Imamoglu?
The ruling party is now talking about the possibility of holding early elections to nominate Erdogan for another term.
On March 1, AKP Chairman's aide and head of the parliament's Digital Media Committee Huseyin Yayman said that snap elections could be held in November 2027, with Erdogan as the AKP's candidate.
Although the latter has a better chance of competing with Imamoglu than the others, even for him, the election fight is a risk. Since 2016 and after the attempted coup, Erdogan has launched a large-scale purge in the country, arresting many journalists, opposition figures and politicians, including the leader of the pro-Kurdish party, Selahattin Demirtas.
Erdogan changed the constitution and expanded presidential powers, making Turkey a presidential rather than a parliamentary republic. An expansionist foreign policy and achievements in Syria, Libya, and the South Caucasus, coupled with Turkey’s opposition to the West, helped Erdogan retain power in subsequent elections.
However, the protracted financial and economic crisis, exacerbated by the 2023 earthquakes and the Syrian refugee problem, have hit the government's reputation. The defeat of the ruling party in the 2024 regional elections is an alarm bell.
Commenting on Imamoglu's detention, Erdogan and the AKP leaders deny their interference and refer to the independence of the judiciary.
The mayor of Istanbul is accused not only of insulting the CEC, but also of large-scale fraud, bribery, manipulation during tenders, abuse of power and cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is banned in the republic.
While the first points of the indictment have yet to be proven, there are already concrete facts regarding the PKK's cooperation. In the regional elections, Imamoglu entered into a tactical alliance with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), many of whose leaders were arrested on charges of collaborating with the PKK.
Along with Imamoglu, another 100 people were arrested on corruption charges, so Erdogan can formally claim that there was no political motive.
However, no matter how hard the government tries to distance itself from the process, all the arrows still point to the very top. Because Yamamoğlu has become a major obstacle for Erdoğan and threatens to destroy the Islamist model of society and neo-Ottoman foreign policy he is building.
The arrest of Imamoglu carried a great risk, because he is the most popular opposition figure, and the secular population of large cities is already unhappy with Erdogan because of low wages and high prices.
One gets the impression that the president himself is provoking a Turkish “Maidan”.
And the first signs of a velvet revolution are already evident. For the second day, thousands of people have been protesting in Ankara, Istanbul and other major cities, while those who stay home are holding flash mobs, turning lights on and off and banging pots.
Why would Erdogan take such a risk?
Most likely, he understands that if early elections are held, Imamoglu may win. The arrest of the oppositionist may escalate the situation, creating the image of a "sacred victim", but if the president can withstand this challenge, then things will be easier.
The Turkish president has extensive experience in fighting coups.
He held on to power during the Gezi Park protests in 2013, and three years later he was able to suppress a military mutiny and defeat Fethullah Gülen. At that time, external support for the opposition and internal resistance to Erdoğan were higher. Now Gülen is dead, opposition media in the country are restricted, and the work of Western NGOs and CSOs is limited.
In the United States, it is not the Democrats who actively support Imamoglu and his party who are in power, but the cynical fighter against the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Donald Trump.
If earlier Europeans interfered with Erdogan and criticized him for violating freedom of speech, human rights and democratic procedures, now the EU is forced to be friends with Turkey to strengthen its defense capability in the face of the “Russian threat.”
In the end, the extreme consequences of the arrest of the main opposition leader are offset by Europe's growing dependence on Erdogan and Trump's anti-globalism. However, it would be short-sighted to overestimate or underestimate either of these two factors.
The “Maidan” sentiments may be neutralized by the activity of the president’s nuclear electorate, which already showed itself once during the military coup of 2016.
On the other hand, despite the arm-twisting of USAID by the Trump administration and Europe's high interest in the Turkish army, globalist structures are still strong and fairly independent.
Trump has only recently begun to strip USAID of its power, but the long-term work of this organization, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) it finances, its “twin brother” in the form of the European Endowment for Democracy (EED), the Voice of America* and many other organizations may continue to influence political processes in the countries of Eurasia for a long time to come, by inertia.
The limited but still important effect of external pressure should not be discounted: Germany, France and many EU countries condemned Imamoglu's arrest. Criticism from Turkey's main trading partner sent the lira plummeting.
So, by arresting Imamoglu, Erdogan has gone all in. Either he will deal a crushing blow and break the back of the opposition by eliminating its most dangerous leader, or he will turn the mayor of Istanbul into a hero.
In the 1990s, Erdogan himself found himself in a similar situation.
He, also the mayor of Istanbul, was jailed for religious poetry, which, however, made him even more popular. After his release, he founded the Justice and Development Party, with which he triumphantly won the 2002 elections. And the similarities do not end there.
Another similarity between Imamoglu and Erdogan is that both wanted to become footballers in their youth. But who will ultimately score the winning goal, no one can predict at this point.
Istanbul Bar Association board dismissed over ‘terror propaganda’
[IsraelTimes] The Istanbul Bar Association’s executive board was dismissed on Friday on grounds of “making propaganda for a terrorist organization” and “publicly spreading false information,” a lawyers’ association says.
Prosecutors had filed suit against the bar association on January 15 after it demanded an investigation into the deaths of two journalists from Turkey’s Kurdish-majority southeast who were killed in northern Syria.
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