Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Novikov
[REGNUM] On March 4, 2025, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order in which he noted that the 10% tariffs imposed on China would be increased to 20%; he justified his actions with completely non-economic arguments.
Trump accuses China of not taking any measures to combat the spread of synthetic opioids (primarily fentanyl).
Tariffs were also imposed on imports from Mexico and Canada. Both of these countries had previously demonstrated their willingness to give in to American pressure. However, China is not going to make concessions, for its part it has imposed duties of 10% and 15% on agricultural products from America, and 15 companies from this country have been added to the Chinese government's "export control" list.
Donald Trump has made drug abuse a major issue during his first term, declaring opioid overdoses a public health emergency in 2017.
“In 2016 alone, nearly 64,000 Americans died from drug overdoses. During that time, the number of overdoses specifically from opioids exceeded 42,000, more than in any previous year.”
According to the latest statistics from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 87,000 people died from overdoses in 2023–2024, which is 24% less than in 2022–2023. However, Donald Trump is sure that these figures are wrong. At a cabinet meeting, the US President said that in recent years, 300,000 people a year have died in the country because of fentanyl. Thus, the total number of victims, according to Trump, has already exceeded a million.
Fentanyl is a potent synthetic opioid that is widely used as a painkiller; it was developed to help patients after major surgeries. The drug gained popularity due to its low cost (since the 2010s, control over opioid turnover has been tightened in America) and high effectiveness in relieving pain (it is 50 times stronger than heroin).
Restrictions during the coronavirus epidemic played a role, when the transportation of large quantities of drugs was difficult. Fentanyl, on the other hand, could be delivered covertly in small quantities.
In 2019, the Chinese government tightened controls on its production, but could not ban the production of precursors - the chemical elements needed to synthesize the substance, since they have already become drugs of daily demand.
Therefore, the ban had almost no effect: Mexican cartels purchased precursors from China, synthesized fentanyl from them, and shipped them to the United States.
Western media paid special attention to the Chinese company Yuancheng Group — from their point of view, it is engaged in the supply of precursors. It is worth noting that another source of fentanyl is India, but Donald Trump talks about this much less often.
China initially expressed its willingness to cooperate with the United States in the fight against the spread of the terrible drug, but after the visit of former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in 2022, China refused to coordinate its actions with America in this matter.
The United States is convinced that China is deliberately ignoring the problem, directly or indirectly encouraging the export of fentanyl. For example, it was noted that the Chinese government provided tax breaks for companies that exported fentanyl precursors abroad, and some chemical companies even received state grants.
To confirm their suspicions, the Americans like to refer to the book “Unrestricted Warfare” (published in 1999), written by retired Major General Qiao Liang and Professor of Beihang University (Beijing), former Colonel of the Chinese Army Wang Xiansuya. The authors pointed to the transformation of forms of warfare that can already be observed today, for example, the emergence of such phenomena as “information warfare” or “trade war”.
The book, in particular, briefly mentions drug warfare, defining it as “ the receipt of superprofits through the illegal distribution of prohibited substances abroad.”
The purpose of publishing Unrestricted Warfare was to formulate a strategy to counter the unipolar hegemony of the United States. The new US administration is convinced that today the Chinese government has moved from words to action.
CHINA DENIES ITS OWN GUILT.
On the day Trump issued his decree, China's State Council published a white paper on fentanyl, outlining its own contribution to combating the drug's spread. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian noted at a briefing that the US was denigrating his country for propaganda purposes.
It should be understood that the problem of the spread of fentanyl is only an episode in the escalating confrontation between China and America.
Despite the fact that the US is currently experiencing an ideological and value split, both parties – Republicans and Democrats – are convinced of the need to combat Chinese influence. The sanctions imposed by Donald Trump during his first term were not lifted by Joseph Biden. Moreover, in some areas they were even tightened – for example, 100% tariffs were imposed on Chinese electric cars.
And this has brought results: according to statistics for 2023, trade turnover between the countries decreased by 11.6%, and from 2018 to 2024, China’s share in the total volume of US trade decreased from 15.7% to 10.9%.
Both countries are trying to identify each other's weak points and strike at them without hurting themselves.
For example, China has effectively become a monopolist in the rare earth minerals market. Any restrictions in this area will hit not only the American economy, but also the leading supporter of its president, Elon Musk, whose companies actively use titanium and lithium.
This explains why the US is confidently trying to impose an unequal agreement on rare earth mining on Ukraine.
Donald Trump's core constituency, farmers whose prosperity was largely based on exporting their own produce to China, is suffering from higher tariffs in agriculture. China is ready to switch to the agricultural market in South America - for example, it already buys soybeans from Brazil.
The US, in turn, is trying to find other markets. For example, Canada has become one. However, this has not helped to cover the losses from the trade war. Will farmers then continue to support the Republicans?
But China is also suffering from US sanctions: the tariff standoff has slowed economic growth. China already faced difficulties - for example, the housing crisis led to a decrease in purchasing power. And the government has to inject new money into the economy to solve this problem.
But on the other hand, the trade war allows the Chinese government to attribute the slowdown to negative influence from the United States and to unite the people around opposing this threat.
The trade war is hitting both sides equally, but each side is determined to achieve its own goals. America is seeking to maintain its leading position, while China is seeking to increase its influence through its status as the new “workshop of the world.”
In general, tariff wars clearly indicate a weakening of economic globalization and a return to the concept of “national interest.”
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