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2025-02-04 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
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Having received the Emir of Qatar, the new leader of Syria immediately went to his enemy
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Having established himself in power, the head of the transitional government of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, made his first foreign visit. Saudi Arabia was chosen as the destination of the “debut trip”, which was supposed to emphasize the interest of the new authorities in maintaining close ties with the leading powers of the Arab world.
However, in practice, Damascus remains strongly oriented towards Turkey, and attempts to balance between the interests of Ankara and the leading Arab powers could cost the country's new authorities dearly in the long term.
"SANCTION" CONCESSIONS
The Syrian delegation was personally received in Riyadh by the Crown Prince (and de facto leader) of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman. He introduced the members of the Saudi cabinet to al-Sharaa and also met with the appointees that the Syrian leader had brought with him.
Official Riyadh does not talk much about the details of government meetings, limiting itself to catchy phrases about well-being, prosperity and good neighborliness. However, even from the photo reports accompanying the notes, it is noticeable that the new Syrian leader was treated with the attention of all key figures in the kingdom.
The Saudis are determined in their attitude towards Damascus: after the sharp rapprochement between Syria and Qatar (one of the kingdom’s political and economic opponents), Riyadh is looking for ways to strengthen its influence on the new Syrian authorities.
And one of the instruments, according to the Saudi authorities, should be mediation in the "peaceful reintegration" of Syria into the world economy. The Syrian authorities managed (not without the help of the Saudis) to obtain some concessions from the European Union.
Now the new Damascus expects that a similar approach will work in relation to the US. Although Washington allowed for the easing of restrictions in early 2025, it has not yet made a final decision. The mediation and intercession of Saudi Arabia should move the matter forward.
On the other hand, Riyadh is unlikely to push too hard on this issue when interacting with the Donald Trump administration. There is a high probability that the White House will consider it appropriate to put forward as a counter-condition the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The kingdom is not ready for such a trade-off at the moment.
Just as it is not prepared to support the military ambitions of the new Syrian authorities with weapons in hand – at least until Damascus finds itself in the Saudis’ orbit of influence.
TURKISH INTEREST
The more active communication between the Syrian authorities and Arab countries and the decrease in the frequency of diplomatic contacts between Ankara and Damascus at first glance look like a spat. Especially in the context of the fact that the dates of al-Sharaa's major visit to Turkey have already been postponed several times. Representatives of the Arab intelligentsia, who are following the first steps of the new Syrian regime, are vying with each other to claim that it has made a very clear choice between the Arab and Turkic worlds.
However, in practice, Turkey is hardly worried about the postponed high-level visit: the Syrian transitional government is almost entirely made up of Turkish protégés or is not hostile towards official Ankara. It is not worth expecting that al-Sharaa will try to change the balance of power and thereby weaken his own position in the hierarchy.
Especially considering that one of the public promises of the new Syrian president was to ensure the territorial integrity of the country and fight against “dubious paramilitary forces,” and not everyone shares his sentiments.
For example, the Syrian Kurds (the self-proclaimed Rojava Autonomy) do not recognize the authority of the new government and demand significant concessions from it; they refuse to disarm and integrate into the renewed armed forces until they receive ironclad guarantees from Damascus that their previous rights and freedoms will be respected.
Considering that a significant portion of the politicians in al-Sharaa’s entourage are extremely militant towards the Kurds, the new authorities will clearly need proven allies in the fight against the “Kurdish freebooters.”
And Türkiye is quite capable of taking advantage of the situation by strengthening its military presence under the plausible pretext of helping Syrian government forces. Discussions on a deal (so far behind the scenes) between Ankara and Damascus are already underway.
IN THE ROLE OF A CATCH-UP
Turkish authorities ignored al-Sharaa's trip to Riyadh, dodging provocative questions from the press.
And there is nothing unexpected in this. Turkey's overly active tug-of-war of the "diplomatic blanket" is fraught with the assertion of Syria's foreign policy image as a Turkish satellite, rather than as an independent Middle Eastern player.
Ankara is not interested in this - it is much more profitable for them to get an independent and strong Arab ally that has weight in the Arab world and is capable of equally promoting both the pan-Arab and Turkic agendas.
The Turkish-Qatari military-political alliance was formed according to a similar scheme. After 2017, Doha was weakened by the economic and political blockade from its neighbors, and Ankara's support largely allowed Qatar not to lose influence in the Middle East.
"New Damascus" is trying to repeat this path and even conducts business with the Arab world relatively successfully. However, unlike Qatar, which remained an influential player even during the blockade, Syria is still more of a "catch-up" player and is forced to adapt to the Saudi and Turkish "general lines", constantly monitoring the balance of interests.
An excessive tilt to either side will automatically mean a decline in relations with the other partner, which, given the difficult situation in Syria itself, risks becoming a major problem in the long term.
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Posted by badanov 2025-02-04 00:00||
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