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2025-01-20 The Grand Turk
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Erdogan Ready for Clash with US to Weaken Syrian Kurds
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Direct Translation via Google Translate.
by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM]  In the current “new Syria,” Türkiye is behaving like a true patron. It is trying to confirm not only in words but also in deeds that it is the main beneficiary of the change of power.
According to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan , all recent visits by colleagues from France, Germany, Italy and other countries took place thanks to Turkish mediation. Syria's northern neighbor is lobbying at international meetings, such as the recent summit in Riyadh, for the lifting of sanctions and the restoration of the Arab republic.
According to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan , Damascus needs no less than $500 billion. For their part, the Turks have already begun to help the Syrians. Together with Qatar, they sent two floating power plants to the eastern Mediterranean to improve the electricity supply situation – the ships will be able to produce up to 800 megawatts of electricity.
Turkish construction companies are already "rising" on news about their possible participation in the construction of roads, schools, hospitals. But for a full-fledged restoration, international donors are needed - the US, the EU, China, the rich countries of the Persian Gulf.
Turkey's superiority is also felt during political and diplomatic events. The first high-ranking guest in Damascus after the December coup was the former head of Turkish intelligence, Hakan Fidan, and the leader of the new Syria and the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) movement*, Ahmed al-Sharaa, will pay his first foreign visit to Ankara.
He does not miss the opportunity to thank Erdogan for his support and help. It is clear that al-Sharaa will look for any way to weaken the dominance of the successors of the Ottoman Empire, but for now the reality is different. On January 16, he sent the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the transitional government, Asad Hassan al-Shibani, to Erdogan .
The main issues of interest to Erdogan and Fidan included the restoration of state institutions, the lifting of sanctions, and the return of 3 million Syrians from Turkey home. But the most problematic topic for Ankara is the fight against terrorism and the territorial integrity of Syria.
In Turkey, terrorists are no longer even understood to mean ISIS*, but rather the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which are part of the so-called "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF). The YPG, which the Turkish authorities consider to be the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, and the SDF occupy territories in northwestern Syria and are under the care of up to 2,000 American troops.
Erdogan demands the complete elimination of the YPG. In early January, Fidan told al-Sharaa in an interview with CNN Türk that "Syria must solve the problem of the Kurdistan Workers' Party ." If Damascus is unable to solve this problem, Ankara is ready to take responsibility into its own hands. At a meeting with al-Shibani, Erdogan said that in the future of Syria "there is no place for terror," that is, the YPG and SDF, and Turkey will not agree to the division of Syria, that is, the formation of Syrian Kurdistan, whether in the form of autonomy or a separate state entity.
Damascus, at least rhetorically, shares its ally's concerns. Al-Shibani told Erdogan that "northeastern Syria should not pose a threat to Turkey and should be united under our central control . "
For now, the Damascus administration is negotiating with the Kurds. And that is why Ankara has adopted a wait-and-see attitude, periodically flexing its muscles to intimidate the YPG and SDF. As part of this policy, the Turkish Air Force struck the town of Suluk in northern Syria in the first week of January.
KURDS TALK ABOUT INTEGRATION
Al-Sharaa announced the first official negotiations with the Kurds on December 29: "We are negotiating with the SDF to resolve the crisis in northeastern Syria ." The essence of those negotiations was, first of all, de-escalation. After all, on December 9, immediately after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad , fighters of the Syrian National Army (SNA) loyal to Turkey went on the offensive against the YPG and SDF forces in the Manbij and Ain al-Arab (Kobani) regions.
At the same time, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) began to build up their forces along the Syrian border in preparation for a large-scale operation. Two weeks later, an SDF spokesman reported that the Kurds had decided to launch a counterattack near the Karakozak Bridge and the Tishreen Dam on the Euphrates River. And, according to some media, the Kurds managed to retake the dam. Al-Sharaa needs to extinguish the hotbeds of conflict in order to build new state structures and rebuild Syria.
Further issues in the negotiations concern the status of the territories under the control of the SDF and YPG and the status of these armed groups in the new state. In the same speech, the head of HTS* made it clear that his government considers the Kurds an integral part of Syrian society, but will not allow Syria to become a platform for PKK attacks. Al-Sharaa also stated that he wants to include the YPG and SDF in the forces of the Ministry of Defense.
Two days later, a Kurdish delegation arrived in Damascus and the first round of negotiations began. The main achievement of that meeting was the Kurds' agreement to preserve the integrity of Syria.
On January 9, SDF chief Mazloum Abdi said: “We share a common position on the importance of the unity and territorial integrity of Syria and reject any plans to divide the country that could threaten its unity . ”
What the negotiations between Damascus and the SDF will ultimately lead to is not yet entirely clear. Yes, formally the Kurds agree to the integrity of Syria, which seems to suit Erdogan. But what status will the Kurds receive for their territories and will there be some kind of autonomy that will smoothly flow into independence, like in Iraqi Kurdistan? Will the YPG and SDF fighters be disbanded or will they receive some status as part of the forces of the Ministry of Defense, which, by the way, other groups in Syria, such as the Southern Operational Headquarters, are also seeking for themselves? All these questions will have to be resolved in the near future by the new leader of the still ununited Syria.
By helping the new Syrian government, Turkey's allies will push them to take action against Kurdish militants. The only acceptable option for Ankara is the complete dissolution of the YPG and SDF.
The Erdogan government, by the way, is trying to achieve the same thing from the PKK already on Turkish territory. At the end of the year, Erdogan's AKP coalition partner Devlet Bahceli (MHP party) suggested that the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan address parliament and announce the self-dissolution of his organization.
On December 19, Fidan said that Türkiye would not carry out an operation against Kurdish groups if the new Syrian authorities took control of the northeastern territories.
But the longer the negotiation process between Damascus and the Kurds lasts, the more bellicose the statements from Ankara become. On January 16, during a speech in parliament, Erdogan said that Turkey could “crush all terrorists” in Syria on its own, referring to ISIS* and the YPG.
POTENTIAL CRISIS
The United States remains an additional and significant component of the "Kurdish issue". After the overthrow of Assad, the Americans doubled their presence in northeastern Syria.
On January 8, at a meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Ankara against a large-scale operation. Blinken said that Washington is working closely with Ankara to resolve issues with the PKK, and Turkey should not launch an operation. At the same time, he demanded that al-Sharaa ensure the participation of the Kurds in the transition period.
The following day, Deputy Secretary of State John Bass arrived in Ankara to discuss the YPG presence in northern Syria. The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet noted that Bass arrived after Ankara had toughened its rhetoric against the YPG, and therefore the White House wanted to reach an agreement with its ally. On the eve of the Deputy Secretary of State's visit, Turkish media outlets spread rumors that Turkey and Syria could jointly conduct an operation against the YPG, but apparently this was only a tool to increase pressure on the United States.
For his part, Fidan stressed that Ankara has no intention of talking to Kurdish fighters, saying that “the countdown to military action has begun .” Turkey has only one condition: the Kurds must lay down their arms and the foreign SDF fighters must leave Syria. If the West makes new demands on Turkey, a military operation will become inevitable, Hurriyet says.
Erdogan is irritated not only by the US, which is covering up the YPG, but also by France. But while the Turks are ready to talk to the Americans, they do not take the French seriously. At one of the press conferences, Fidan made it clear that his country will not interact with those who “hide behind the power of America, promoting their own plans .” This is how the Turkish minister responded to rumors that French President Emmanuel Macron proposed to outgoing US President Joe Biden to deploy a Franco-American contingent on the Turkish-Syrian border from the Syrian side.
Macron's plans were revealed to the Turks by the co-chairman of the Kurdish administration for foreign affairs, Ilham Ahmed , who said on TV5 Monde that the US and France "could ensure the security of the entire border . "
The warnings and attempts by Blinken's team to make diplomatic moves are understandable, given that the Biden administration has supported the Kurds and prevented Turkey from eliminating the YPG for four years. But all the State Department's statements are of little use now, because Donald Trump's team is coming to power tomorrow , and Erdogan will have to resolve issues with him.
The ongoing settlement of the Gaza conflict removes one of the major problems in the future relations between the leaders of the two countries, even taking into account that members of the new US administration are extremely pro-Israel. But the Kurdish issue has the potential to create a crisis in relations between Ankara and Washington.
For Trump, Syria is not only a question of influence in the Middle East, but also oil, concentrated mainly in Kurdish territories. Al-Sharaa can eliminate a potential problem point between the US and Turkey by reaching an agreement with the Kurds. But relying solely on the leader of HTS*, who needs improved relations with America to lift international sanctions, would be extremely short-sighted from Erdogan’s point of view.
The Turkish government is now fully confident that it can solve the Kurdish problem in Syria. According to a source at the Atlantic Council (an organization considered undesirable in Russia), who asked to remain anonymous, Turkey prefers to persuade the YPG to disarm rather than carry out a military operation against them, since Ankara believes that such a decision will create an opportunity to put an end to the PKK. But “if the YPG rejects the Turkish olive branch ,” Turkey will go on the offensive, and “the US will not be able to stop it . ”
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Posted by badanov 2025-01-20 00:00||
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