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2025-01-17 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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Gaza Deal: IDF Tactical Success and Israel's Strategic Failure
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov
[REGNUM] Israel and the Palestinian movement Hamas agreed on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on January 15. The agreement could end a devastating 15-month Israeli offensive in the enclave that has killed nearly 50,000 Palestinians. But there are many obstacles to not only implementing the agreement, but even getting it off the ground.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman bin Jassim al-Thani announced the deal on Wednesday, January 15, at a press conference in Doha, saying the ceasefire would begin on January 19. The Qataris, along with the Egyptians, helped Hamas reach an agreement with Israel, while the new US administration led by President-elect Donald Trump tried to pressure the Israelis.
"PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH"
Now everything depends on whether Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet ratifies the deal.
Trump has already been quick to praise the agreement, calling it “epic,” and stressing that it would not have happened without his return to the White House. That statement raises hopes that the two sides can move forward with at least the first phase of a deal.
It is the disputes within the Israeli government that are causing concern. Netanyahu's rejection of the deal would be perceived by Trump as an attempt to steal his administration's first victory and cause reputational damage.
“This monumental ceasefire agreement could only have been achieved as a result of our historic victory in November, as it showed the world that my administration will pursue peace and negotiate to ensure the safety of all Americans and our allies,” Trump wrote on the TruthSocial platform.
Trump singled out the efforts of his national security team's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to broker a deal, and also emphasized the allied nature of relations with Israel and the desire to "never again make Gaza a safe haven for terrorists."
“We will continue to advance the idea of peace through strength throughout the region,” Trump concluded.
THREE STEPS TO PEACE
In the first phase of the deal, which will last 42 days, Hamas must release 33 prisoners: minors, women (both civilians and soldiers) and civilian men over 50.
In exchange, Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners for every civilian hostage and 50 for every female soldier.
Israeli forces will withdraw from densely populated areas to the outskirts of the Gaza Strip, additional UN aid will be sent to the enclave, and displaced Palestinians will begin to return home.
On the 16th day, negotiations are expected to begin on the implementation of the second stage, which is also planned to last 42 days and will include a declaration of “sustainable calm.”
At this stage, Hamas is to release the remaining male captives (soldiers and civilians) in exchange for an as yet unagreed number of Palestinian prisoners and the beginning of a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which is to be completed by the end of the second stage.
In the third stage, the bodies of the dead Israeli hostages will be exchanged for the bodies of the dead Hamas members. The reconstruction plan for Gaza will be implemented, and the border crossings for entry and exit from the Strip will be opened.
The draft ceasefire agreement also provides for negotiations on a post-conflict governance and reconstruction structure for Gaza, but since there is no consensus on these issues, the possibility of a prolonged military occupation of the territory by Israel remains, up to and including a resumption of hostilities in the near future.
In addition, the deal does not include political negotiations to resolve the core conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
As Igor Subbotin, an international observer and expert on the Middle East, told Regnum, the agreed deal between Israel and Hamas partially eliminates the hostage problem, which formally underlay the military operation in Gaza that lasted more than a year, but does not stop the full-scale conflict itself and the underlying causes that lie at its origins.
According to him, Israel agreed to limit the operational activity of its troops in Gaza, but pushed Hamas to agree to something that had long been controversial: the establishment of buffer zones and the maintenance of a contingent on the isthmus between Gaza and Egypt.
This is not about withdrawing troops from the enclave, but rather a trigger for the armed wing of Hamas to begin regrouping and rebuilding its forces instead of demobilizing.
In turn, as Subbotin notes, Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 can only electrify the atmosphere around Gaza. Those close to the Republican say that he will seek "autonomy for the Palestinians" on the model of Puerto Rico, an unincorporated US territory in the Caribbean Sea.
An important aspect of this concept will be that it will be based on the principle of "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace," those close to the idea explain. And this is unlikely to be enthusiastically received by supporters of the "resistance."
Netanyahu himself had motives to make a deal, since it became obvious that the current stage of his military campaign in Gaza had reached a dead end. Therefore, he needs a pause at least to resolve the problem with some of the hostages, which would reduce the internal pressure on his cabinet to a certain extent and allow him, if necessary, to gather his strength and resume military operations.
It is clear that the Hamas movement has evolved from a centralized organization into an equally effective guerrilla movement that has been able to restructure itself and continue to inflict significant damage on Israel.
The Sheikh al-Qassam Brigades, the movement's military wing, after emptying its arsenals, launched a successful mine war against the IDF, mining roads where Israeli soldiers are blown up almost every day.
The number of Israelis killed in Gaza in recent months, starting in the fall, has been not fewer, but more than before. Israeli experts themselves write about this, also emphasizing that there have been no major military achievements in Gaza for six months now.
It is concluded that the deal could have been concluded back then - and all the heads of the special services and security agencies spoke about it. This would have saved the lives of soldiers and hostages.
However, this scenario misses an important detail.
It is quite possible that Netanyahu does not have the goal of bringing the agreement to a third or even a second stage and intends to resume hostilities.
And then the current deal is just a certain concession to the Americans, despite the fact that the US administration itself did not play any significant role in it. Despite Trump's loud statements, it was unable to force the Israeli leadership to make concessions, while Qatar, on the contrary, was able to put the necessary pressure on Hamas and force it to accept the deal.
ISRAEL DOES NOT RULE OUT CONTINUATION OF THE WAR
Netanyahu and his far-right government, from draft to draft of the agreement, included in each text the possibility of permanently occupying part of the Gaza Strip territory in the first two stages, so that they could return to military operations at any time.
This also applies to the latest, approved version. That is why some analysts have already called the approved agreement “staged.”
In particular, Professor Andreas Krieg from King's College London and journalist for the Israeli publication Haaretz Zvi Barel believe that the agreement itself is a diplomatic ploy: the Israeli government does not even intend to move on to the second stage and will seek to resume hostilities after the release of the first batch of prisoners.
But even in the second stage of the agreement, Netanyahu has every opportunity to continue the military campaign.
As experts familiar with the agreement, including Krieg, note, the IDF will not completely leave the sector, but will only limit its presence to forward operating bases. Relying on them, the Israelis can quickly resume military operations when they need to.
Only in the third stage, based on a political framework agreement on governance and reconstruction, will it be possible to talk about a complete withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. However, this stage is unlikely to be achievable even in the medium term.
Other escalation scenarios cannot be ruled out.
Netanyahu could take advantage of the lull in fighting in Gaza to launch a full-scale military campaign in the West Bank, while increasing pressure on Washington to back military action against Iran's nuclear program.
HAMAS - A SUCCESS WITH CAVEATS
On the other hand, it is interesting to see how Hamas and the representatives of the “Axis of Resistance” are trying to present a very shaky deal without any guarantees for the Palestinian movement as their own success.
Radical Zionists such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich are in full agreement with them in their assessments. They speak of an agreement that could allow Netanyahu to save face in the current situation as a “capitulation.”
In particular, Smotrich, who heads the Religious Zionism party, called the deal a “disaster for national security” and said his party would not support it. The leader of another far-right party, Otzma Yehudit, Ben-Gvir, called on Smotrich to work together to block the agreement.
If the Religious Zionism party, which has 7 seats in the Israeli Knesset, and the Otzma Yehudit party, which has 6 seats, cooperate, they could gain a majority sufficient to overthrow Netanyahu's cabinet. The government needs at least 61 seats in the Knesset to retain power, and the current coalition has 68 mandates out of 120.
However, it is clear that for the far right, disagreement with the deal is simply populism, detachment from reality and a refusal to acknowledge the situation that has developed “on the ground.”
The very admission that Hamas still rules part of Gaza and is a party to the deal is unacceptable to radical Zionists who want Hamas to be completely destroyed and Israeli settlements to return to Gaza – with all Palestinians expelled from there.
The current agreement, although it leaves open the possibility of returning to this plan of the radicals, carries with it the threat of prolongation and may ultimately lead to the implementation of the peace plan embedded in it.
Based on this, Hamas also has certain motives to declare success, albeit with certain reservations.
It should be emphasized that after 15 months and 50,000 deaths of Palestinian civilians, Hamas is still capable of launching rockets and attacking the IDF rear, Israeli prisoners have not yet returned home, Israeli casualties in Gaza are not only not decreasing but are growing, and Israel is politically isolated.
This is how Israel's strategic failure looks against the backdrop of its tactical successes. Hamas certainly surprised many military experts and analysts, unlike Hezbollah, whose military capabilities were somewhat overestimated.
***
Thus, the current deal, despite all the risks of continued military action and the presence of introductory elements that are certainly advantageous for Israel, confirms that the IDF has not been able to achieve a convincing victory over Hamas, and even if the agreements are disrupted, it is unlikely to be able to change anything radically.
On the contrary, Hamas, having agreed to accept conditions that are at first glance unfavorable to itself, related to maintaining the Israeli presence in Gaza, is still recognized as an active player with whom it is necessary to reckon and negotiate. A player that retains the prospect of a political future.
And for the people of Gaza, any ceasefire and access to humanitarian aid is like a breath of fresh air.
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Posted by badanov 2025-01-17 00:00||
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