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2025-01-16 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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Hamas and Israel Ready for Deal, But Not Thinking of Stopping
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Negotiations on the exchange of hostages between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas are gradually entering the home stretch. The parties have fewer and fewer demands on each other, while those that remain are more symbolic and do not interfere with the discussion of details.
The seriousness of the parties' intentions is also demonstrated by the fact that "narrowly profiled" officials are involved in discussing the details of the deal - for example, the head of the committee for Palestinian prisoners, Kadura Fares. Of course, the deal is unlikely to put an end to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, it will allow Israel to jump out of the protracted conflict, while saving face.
INVISIBLE FRONT
Despite the obvious decrease in the intensity of hostilities, it is too early to talk about an end to the fighting in the Gaza Strip. Hamas continues its guerrilla war in the enclave, periodically raiding Israeli checkpoints and small groups of soldiers.
It plays into the hands of the Palestinians that the Israelis are trying not to concentrate too many soldiers in Gaza (even taking into account the completion of the offensive in the Lebanese direction and the lack of need to constantly maintain a “strike force” in the border area).
Moreover, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) seeks not to disperse its forces throughout the enclave, relying on the mobility of battle groups and pinpoint suppression operations. In light of this, Israeli soldiers constantly return to previously “cleared” areas to conduct new operations, which neutralizes their superiority in strength and weapons.
Also, according to the Israeli General Staff, Hamas has begun to use new tactics and convert unexploded IDF ordnance into remote bombs.
This places additional strain on the sapper units and slows down the advance of Israeli forces within the enclave, as well as increasing the associated losses in personnel and equipment.
| They’ll move faster when not constrained by the Biden administration's’ deliberately hobbling restraints. |
Over the past week, the number of IDF soldiers killed has reached at least 15, and since the beginning of Operation Iron Swords, losses have amounted to more than 700 soldiers and officers.
Israeli defense consultants point to a worrying trend: Israeli casualties are rising and clashes with the Palestinians are becoming more intense, even in contrast to the first months of the war.
HAMAS 2.0
During Operation Iron Swords, Hamas lost, according to various estimates, between 15 and 25 thousand fighters, and also lost a good half of its military and political leadership. However, even taking this fact into account, Israel failed to achieve the complete defeat of the movement.
Recently, Hamas was headed by Mohammed Sinwar, the younger brother of Yahya Sinwar, who was liquidated by the Israelis, and one of the experienced Palestinian functionaries. Sinwar Jr. not only managed to take over the reins, but also risked conflict with the "political functionaries" sitting in Doha; he refused to form a collective governing body.
Sinwar Jr. preferred complete autonomy for the actions of the units entrusted to him in Gaza to the “Palestinian Seven Boyars.”
In order to replenish its losses, the movement has relied on recruiting neophytes – despite their low combat experience, new Hamas members are highly motivated and eager to get even with the Israelis for civilian casualties and the destruction of the enclave. Particularly zealous are those from northern Gaza, for whom participation in Hamas operations is often tantamount to revenge for the deaths of loved ones.
Another significant lever of influence for the younger Sinwar over recruits was the monopolization of humanitarian aid. Hamas still controls the distribution of food and other goods in Gaza and rewards its most loyal fighters with advanced access to incoming supplies.
| Praise from Russia for deliberately starving the civilian population? How admirable, indeed. |
The effectiveness of Hamas' actions is also recognized by Israel's allies. For example, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated at one of his briefings that "Hamas has recruited almost as many new fighters as it has lost"; that is, it has essentially fully restored its combat capability.
| Newbies, however driven by fear of starvation if they don’t fight, are not the equal of seasoned, trained fighters. |
ON THE EVE OF THE DEAL
At the same time, the new Hamas leadership did not demonstratively reject negotiations, even when the Israelis refused to return the body of the liquidated Sinwar Sr. to his homeland.
On the contrary, the movement tried to divert the dialogue into the bureaucratic plane in order to delay the approval of even the smallest details of the deal and thereby gain time to restore the mobilization resource.
The calculation turned out to be quite accurate: given that many attribute the current peace initiative on Gaza to Donald Trump personally, Tel Aviv does not want to confuse its strategic ally, and therefore patiently works on every remark.
Moreover, in a public gesture, the IDF abandoned the Netzarim corridor in Gaza, previously created specifically to “cut” the enclave into two parts, and also effectively stopped claiming control over the Philadelphi corridor on the border with Egypt.
At the same time, Tel Aviv's concessions (partly dictated by Washington) are not understood by the Israeli "hawks". In their eyes, Benjamin Netanyahu's government "pays too high a price" for satisfying American strategic ambitions, and the possible withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip is interpreted as nothing less than a defeat.
On the other hand, Tel Aviv understands perfectly well that the confrontation with Hamas will not end after reaching a deal on the hostages.
On the contrary, the release of the captives will untie the hands of the Israeli government, eliminating the social tension that has been building for a year and a half. In this interpretation, the IDF's withdrawal from Gaza, under any conditions, will be presented as a victory for Israel and the end of Operation Iron Swords.
The subsequent confrontation with Hamas will be positioned as a separate stage of the struggle, and not as a new round of an old operation. And before approaching Hamas 2.0, Tel Aviv will probably do some serious work on its mistakes.
Top Biden aide seems to downplay Blinken’s claim that Hamas recruited as many fighters as it lost
[IsraelTimes] A senior Biden administration official appears to downplay a claim made by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
 ...71st United States secretary of state and a leading light of the corrupt and inept Biden administration. He previously served as deputy national security advisor from 2013 to 2015 and deputy secretary of state from 2015 to 2017 under the corrupt and inept Obama administration. He advocated for the 2003 invasion of Iraq while serving as the Democratic staff director of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2002 to 2008. He was a foreign policy advisor for the Biden 2008 presidential campaign. During his tenure in the Obama administration, Blinken helped craft B.O.'s policy on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the nuclear program of Iran. We all saw how well each of those worked. After leaving government service, Blinken moved into the private sector, co-founding WestExec Advisors, a lobbying firm...
that Hamas
..a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",...
has recruited roughly as many fighters as it has lost.
The senior US official was asked about Blinken’s comments during a briefing with news hounds following the announcement of a Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response ...
hostage deal.
"I heard that, but Hamas is a significantly degraded military organization," the official responds. "Israeli forces can go anywhere in Gaza they want. Hamas leaders are living almost entirely underground and trying to take refuge in civilian structures."
"They really have no free-standing brigades or military organization anymore," he says of Hamas.
"Have they recruited poor Gazooks who are living in hell on earth? Yes, but that is a far cry from an organization that invaded Israel with military formations with thousands of organized fighters on October 7. Its ability to do that I really believe has been forever foreclosed," the senior US official states.
Blinken made the comments Wednesday while arguing that Israel’s failure to stand up a viable alternative to Hamas has led the IDF to repeatedly return to places in Gaza ipreviously cleared of Hamas fighters who managed to return.
"We’ve long made the point to the Israeli government that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone, that without a clear alternative, a post-conflict plan and a credible political horizon for the Paleostinians, Hamas, or something just as abhorrent and dangerous, will grow back," Blinken said in an address on the Biden administration’s Mideast policy at the Atlantic Council.
"That’s exactly what’s happened in northern Gaza since October 7. Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back Hamas, Death Eaters regroup and reemerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void," he said. "That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war." 
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Posted by badanov 2025-01-16 00:00||
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