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2025-01-05 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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'Shadows of October 7': Political calm in Israel threatens Netanyahu with an explosion
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Israel entered the year 2025 in the conditions of a “besieged fortress” and fighting on several fronts at once.
At the same time, compared to the beginning of the year, the socio-political situation in the country has significantly leveled out. Israeli leaders managed to quell popular discontent with unpopular decisions, preventing a political crisis.
For some politicians – first and foremost for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – the outgoing year has been a triumph in many ways. The country’s position on the international stage has been strengthened, and Israelis intend to continue their “victorious march.”
However, upon closer examination it is clear that strengthening in some areas has provoked distortions in domestic political life. However, the Israeli establishment is trying not to notice them for now.
UNSINKABLE
The person of the Israeli Prime Minister has been the focus of most attention in the past year. By the end of 2024, Netanyahu had significantly strengthened his position - neither numerous spy scandals (in some of which the Prime Minister was involved) nor the break with his former allies - Benny Gantz and Yoav Galant - could "sink" him.
In addition, the prime minister managed to achieve the main thing: torpedo the creation of a commission to investigate the reasons for the successful breakthrough of Hamas into the territory of the Jewish state in October 2023. The investigation promised big problems not only for Netanyahu, but also for a number of his allies, which would have led to the dissolution of the current government.
In an attempt to fight back against the “October 7 theme,” Netanyahu carried out personnel purges in the Defense Ministry and special services (in particular, in military intelligence), and also launched the process of forming his own “personal intelligence,” transferring the Ifcha Mistabra unit to the Prime Minister’s Office.
| According to Wikipedia, “The Devil's Advocate Unit" is a small unit in the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate. Its purpose is to evaluate intelligence assumptions and products in a professional and critical manner, including serving as the "Devil's advocate" or the "Ifcha Mistabra" function. This means examining unlikely scenarios and questioning common assumptions of the Research Department as well as proposing adversarial evaluations. The unit works as an independent part of the Research Department. |
Thus, he not only prevented a possible consolidation of military officials against himself, but also demonstratively “punished those responsible” for the Hamas attack, thereby somewhat relieving public tension.
It is very difficult, at first glance, to reproach Netanyahu for miscalculations on external borders. The Israeli government considers itself the winner not only in Gaza, but also in Lebanon, where the ceasefire was established essentially on Tel Aviv's terms.
The Israelis' skillful use of the "Syrian turmoil" to expand their zone of control in the Golan Heights is also considered a plus. Tel Aviv makes it clear that it does not plan to simply leave the occupied territories.
Netanyahu also showed great foresight in his timely rapprochement with the Republicans in the United States, which, in light of Donald Trump's election victory, provided Tel Aviv with a vote of confidence from the White House, as well as support for the Israelis' regional ambitions.
Israel hopes that with Trump's support it will be able to inflict a strategic defeat on Iran and also continue to normalize relations with its Arabian partners. Both tasks are likely to become priorities for Tel Aviv in the coming year.
THE FATE OF THE NEGOTIATIONS
At the same time, the external success of the Netanyahu government is quite ephemeral. Beautiful slogans, sounding from the podiums, mask, but do not solve any of the problems that have accumulated in the country.
Israeli society is highly polarized. Living in a besieged fortress does not contribute to the country's economic prosperity, and the ongoing shelling of cities (including the capital's neighborhoods) provokes panic and defeatism, and alienates foreign partners.
Residents of the northern regions of the country are dissatisfied - despite statements about the defeat of Hezbollah, people are in no hurry to return to the border regions. No politician has yet undertaken to guarantee the "inviolability of the northern borders."
And given that a number of areas of the Israeli-Lebanese border are still considered a “zone of special attention” by the Israeli army, the return of internally displaced persons there does not seem possible even in 2025.
The issue of releasing hostages held by Israel's opponents also remains in limbo.
Both Hamas and official Tel Aviv periodically report on achieving a “fundamental breakthrough” in the negotiations, but do not back up these statements with anything.
And given the general unpredictability of Trump (the future main guarantor of the deal), the hostage agreement is hanging by a thread.
Of course, symbolic exchanges could happen at the beginning of the year – as a “gift” for Trump’s inauguration – but even the most optimistic politicians are not talking about a full return of the detainees.
Skeptics also point to Trump's desire to take into account, in addition to Israel, the interests of some of the Arab allies (for example, Saudi Arabia), and also to try to achieve a cautious détente with Iran. And here, Tel Aviv's overly belligerent position risks spoiling Washington's diplomatic game.
Israelis' dissatisfaction with the situation "on the distant frontiers" is compounded by other challenges - growing interethnic tensions and disagreements over economic and political reforms.
The government has so far preferred not to respond to internal problems, shifting the focus of attention to military and diplomatic victories, which is very dangerous.
Given the dynamics of public sentiment, the situation risks escalating to the limit in the first months of the new year, provoking a large-scale domestic political crisis.
FRIENDS AND ENEMIES
Another challenge for Netanyahu and his supporters is the gradual strengthening of the opposition. And this is not only about the “military wing” consisting of high-ranking retirees (including former defense ministers Benny Gantz and Yoav Galant) – the current prime minister is watching it very closely.
A much greater danger is the formation of an “opposition clique” from among the most ardent and irreconcilable Israeli politicians – Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Both hawks advocate a tougher Israeli policy toward the Palestinians and Tel Aviv's "sole control" over the Gaza Strip. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich criticize Netanyahu for his "indecisiveness," viewing his attempts to balance the interests of other beneficiaries of the Gaza reorganization as weakness.
Considering that the parties represented by the hawks act as one of the “props” of Netanyahu’s coalition government, their transition to the opposition could seriously weaken the prime minister’s political stability.
Apparently, in 2025, Netanyahu will have to balance interests not only with opponents, but also with yesterday’s allies and like-minded people.
Otherwise, the triumphal march of the “most right-wing government” in Israel’s history risks ending as disastrously as the rise of its predecessor, the “most inclusive government” in history led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.
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