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2024-12-15 Europe
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France's New Prime Minister: A Lover of Shady Schemes Caught on 'Snowdrops'
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Olesya Orlenko
[REGNUM] On December 13, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed a new prime minister, his fourth this year. After much hesitation, he chose centrist François Bayrou. While the new head of government considers candidates for ministerial posts, the French are discussing how long he will hold on to the job.
François Bayrou began his political career in the early 1980s. During this time, he served as a member of parliament, a member of the European Parliament, and as Minister of Education under Presidents François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac.
He also ran for president in 2002, 2007 and 2012. In 2007, he and his party, the Democratic Movement (MoDem), created specifically for the elections, even took third place in terms of the number of votes received – 18.57%, which, however, did not allow him to advance to the second round.
In 2017, he entered into an alliance with Emmanuel Macron, supporting his candidacy for the French presidency. Since then, Bayrou has been considered a loyal ally of the head of state. His name was mentioned among potential candidates for the post of prime minister after the resignation of Michel Barnier. However, Macron apparently made his choice at the very last minute. And he made it largely after Bayrou’s insistent requests.
This version explains the nervousness that the new prime minister clearly felt when he delivered his speech during the ceremony of handing over power from his predecessor. In his hands he held a sheet of paper with handwritten outlines of his speech, obviously hastily written. He did not thank the president for the trust he had shown. Instead, he spoke a lot about the difficulties associated with the post he was now taking on. And they were all serious.
The first problem is related to the state budget. The fact that this document was not adopted this year will lead to additional expenses starting from January 1, 2025. As a result, whatever the budget proposed by the new government, it will be physically impossible to fit the savings proposed by Michel Barnier into it.
Consequently, the national debt will only increase, which will have a detrimental effect on both the domestic economy and France's position in the European Union. It is not for nothing that the American rating agency Moody's, a few hours before the announcement of the new prime minister, lowered France's credit rating and expressed doubts about the country's ability to quickly improve the state of public finances.
Also important is the question of whether Bayrou will be able to secure a parliamentary majority and avoid another vote of no confidence. This is what France Insoumise
| ….a leftwing French political party launched in 2016 by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, then a Member of the European Parliament and former co-president of the Left Party... |
of the left-wing NUPES coalition is insisting on, assuring that many other members of this group are ready to support such a proposal.
Indeed, the majority of the left shares the view that Macron has once again failed to learn from his mistakes and continues to act as before, blind to the obstacles that arise. However, for now, the leaders of the Communists, Greens and Socialists have | …all idiots by definition… |
said that they will refrain from trying to immediately dismiss Bayrou. Although the latter have said that they will refuse ministerial posts in the new government if they are offered them.
The right has also adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The so-called independence that Bayrou has always tried to demonstrate is mistrusted by them. In particular, they voice concerns that the new head of government will be too favorable to the left. After all, in 2012 he called on his supporters to vote for François Hollande in the second round.
The position of the right will largely depend on the first steps of the new prime minister. An important moment will be the choice of the Minister of the Interior: the "Republicans" are very much counting on Bayrou leaving their party member Bruno Retaillo in this position.
Unfortunately for Bayrou, he has neither a wide circle of political supporters nor the goodwill of the press. His performance as a politician is rated average.
Since 2020, he has headed the High Commissioner for Planning, an advisory agency that is supposed to work on optimizing the activities of public services in certain areas. Many officials consider the existence of this agency useless and pointless, because the recommendations coming from it are extremely rare and superficial.
Moreover, the prime minister is under threat of trial. François Bayrou was tried on exactly the same charge as the head of the National Rally parliamentary faction, Marine Le Pen: creating fictitious positions in the European Parliament, the funding of which was used as salaries for members of their parties. Such employees, who appear on the payroll but do not exist in reality, have been called "snowdrops" since Soviet times.
In connection with this process, Bayrou even had to leave the post of Minister of Justice, to which he was appointed after Macron’s election in 2017, where he held it for about two months.
The court found that there was no evidence against Bayrou, but some members of his MoDem party were convicted. For example, Jean-Luc Benamiat received a 30,000 euro fine, a 12-month suspended sentence and a three-year ban on running.
By the way, Le Pen faces five years in prison, three of which are suspended, a ban on being a candidate in elections for five years and a fine of 300 thousand euros. But the justice system continues to remind that it is not sure of Bayrou's innocence, and a new trial may begin in the near future.
The job of Prime Minister of France looks particularly unattractive these days. The consequences of any decision will be negative, and attempts to rely on different political forces will cause discontent among their opponents.
At the same time, budget expenditures on social security will inevitably be reduced, causing popular discontent. This is confirmed by the recent speech of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. He complained that Europe spends too much on pensions and health care, at a time when it is necessary to switch to “wartime thinking” and increase funding for the Alliance from 2% to 4% of GDP.
So only skillful political maneuvering can save François Bayrou from resignation.
| Except that it sounds like he is neither skillful nor clever. Eventually it will comedown to the candidates on the right. |
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Posted by badanov 2024-12-15 00:00||
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