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2024-12-05 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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Strange Bedfellows: Time for Israel and Syria to Bury the Hatchet?
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[PJMedia] In an exclusive report this week, Rooters revealed secret talks between the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates aimed at lifting sanctions on Syria if President Bashir al-Assad "peels himself away from Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
and cuts off weapons routes to Leb
 ...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
's Hezbollah."
This was even before Syrian rebels burst out of their concave in the country's northwest over the weekend, taking Assad's citadel in Aleppo and threatening Hama. Those events might have given the talks some added urgency.
According to Rooters' sources, renewed fighting in the Syrian Civil War "is a signal of precisely the sort of weakness in Assad's alliance with Iran that the Emirati and U.S. initiative aims to exploit. But if Assad embraces Iranian help for a counter-offensive, that could also complicate efforts to drive a wedge between them."
Assad might well be thinking of Tehran, "What have you done for me lately?" The best that Iran's Mullahs' regime could muster in his defense was a few columns of Iraqi Shi'ite militia — many of whom were quickly dispatched to Paradise (courtesy of the U.S. Air Force) long before they got anywhere close to the battlefield.
First and foremost, Assad is a survivor. His means of survival following the eruption of civil war in 2011 was aid from Iran and Russia. In exchange, the parts of Syria still controlled by the Assad regime in Damascus became a virtual vassal state of the other two powers. Syria became Russia's forward operating base in the Mediterranean and Iran's staging area (among other things) for supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon.
It was the smart play; Iran and Russia were the "strong horses," and, besides, the Americans were too tied to the hated Israelis. But those two are looking less like the region's strong horses. President-elect Trump will certainly restore sanctions on Iran, and the whole country sits exposed to the Israeli Air Force after they took out Iran's air defenses in October. The Russian military is almost entirely tied down in Ukraine, and their assistance to Assad has been limited to a few Arclight airstrike
...KABOOM! ...
s. Large amounts of effective aid are likely not forthcoming.
Assad might be smart to take the U.S.-UAE offer to sideline Iran. Of course, the Biden administration has never really understood the concept of second-order effects. Bolstering Assad would weaken Iran but also bolster Russia. As always, in the Middle East, it's complicated.
Or maybe it's too late.
There are rumors — still unconfirmed — that "Unlike Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Assad passed on the ammo and 'took the ride' with his family" all the way to Moscow.
But even if Assad is still in Damascus (which I believe), a genuine threat to his regime might not be welcomed in Jerusalem despite the two governments' longstanding disagreements. Not to mention, the occasional war. Syria, in a constant state of civil war, is bad enough. But as a failed state, the whole country would turn into a playground for the region's worst players, including ISIS, which has never quite gone away.
Assad is a predictable (and weak) enemy that Israel knows. The unknown would likely prove worse and could provide impetus for Assad and Netanyahu to cooperate, at least on a limited basis, until the moment of maximum danger has passed.
Ousting Iran from Syria would be a diplomatic coup for the outgoing Biden administration and one I believe they're unlikely to pull off. But if the U.S.-UAE talks can at least be kept on the back burner for another seven weeks or so, maybe it's something President Trump could accomplish — with or without lifting sanctions on the Assad regime.
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Posted by trailing wife 2024-12-05 2024-12-05 00:54||
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File under: Govt of Syria
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Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-12-05 06:31||
2024-12-05 06:31||
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Posted by Seeking Cure For Ignorance 2024-12-05 09:32||
2024-12-05 09:32||
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05:26 Skidmark
05:19 Skidmark
04:53 Grom the Affective
04:48 no mo uro
04:39 Seeking Cure For Ignorance
04:04 Grom the Affective
02:32 Fairbanks
00:43 Skidmark
00:24 Skidmark
00:19 EMS Artifact
00:06 Rambler
00:03 Rambler
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