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2024-11-30 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
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Attack on Aleppo: Militants' sudden success in Syria has two reasons
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Dmitry Polyakov
[REGNUM] On the morning of November 27, the armed forces of the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, an organization banned in Russia), with the support of Syrian opposition formations, launched an offensive on the positions of government troops. The militants' operation was called "Containing Aggression," and its goal was to restore the borders of the Idlib de-escalation zone. To some extent, the event signifies the "defrosting" of the Syrian conflict.
For almost five years, the status quo was maintained in Syria. In March 2020, the last major operation, “Dawn over Idlib 2,” was completed.
As a result, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) established control over part of Idlib province, significantly reducing the de-escalation zone of the same name. After that, no territorial changes were observed, and clashes between militants and government forces were local in nature.
The current offensive is changing the military and political situation in northern Syria. In just one day, militants were able to cut off the M5 highway, which connects the north and south of the country. Fighting is already taking place within the city limits of Aleppo, which poses a threat to the "northern capital."
The offensive also expanded southeast of Idlib, reaching areas of Saraqib, a key city for controlling the M5 highway, which was only captured by government forces in 2020.
Interestingly, the militants' attack began just hours after a ceasefire was established between Lebanon and Israel. Given that HTS militants have been shelling government positions almost simultaneously with Israeli airstrikes over the past month, this has raised some questions about possible coordination between the parties in the current operation.
But most likely, the sequence of actions is explained by tactical considerations. Syrian militants took advantage of the moment when most of Hezbollah fighters are in southern Lebanon and cannot be quickly transferred to neighboring Syria. However, in essence, this aspect is secondary. The offensive, its pace and tactical successes are determined by two main factors.
THEY PREPARED THOROUGHLY
It is important to recall that the active phase of the armed conflict in Syria ended in 2018, when government forces occupied three de-escalation zones: Eastern Ghouta, northern Homs, and the Southern Zone in the provinces of Daraa and Suwayda. And after the last full-scale military operation ended in March 2020, the status quo was established in the country.
Due to the lack of military actions that somehow supported the combat capability of the Syrian army, its rapid decline began. This process was also influenced by the deep socio-economic crisis in the country, which negatively affected the overall condition of the troops.
Over the past five years, no action has been taken to improve the quality of the armed forces. The exercises did not practice modern methods of warfare that would be adequate to the conditions of the Syrian campaign.
A sign of the general decline was the deterioration of the security situation, especially in the central regions of Syria, where the Islamic State (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) has become active again.
The problem has become systemic, and it is precisely here that the reasons for the ineffective defense against the advancing forces in the current operation lie.
In Idlib, the situation was completely different.
Over the past five years, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has successfully centralized its presence in the region.
Most of the disparate formations were brought together under a single military command called Al-Fatah al-Mubin. Groups that did not want to integrate fell into disgrace.
In addition, the HTS militants have been constantly training, taking into account the realities of modern warfare. For example, in the current offensive, the militants are effectively using strike and FPV drones. All this has greatly contributed to the rapid pace of their offensive and tactical success.
It is noteworthy that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham announced the need for the operation several months ago, which was explained by internal reasons. Today, there is a high level of discontent among residents in Idlib with the actions of HTS and the Syrian Salvation Government controlled by it. The region has faced constant protests.
This is why a military operation could quell popular discontent and increase support for HTS. Most residents of the province share opposition views, so an attack on government positions could be welcomed by them.
THE TURKS COULDN'T HELP BUT KNOW
To fully understand the situation, it is important to say that today the north and northwest of Syria are divided into two zones. One of them is under the control of the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) and the other is under the control of the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). Both political bodies are opposition forces.
It is noteworthy that these zones are actually Turkish protectorates, where Turkish troops are present. Moreover, many opposition structures are financed by Ankara. For example, the "Syrian National Army" (SNA) has actually become a "proxy force" of Turkey. And its units are also participating in the current operation.
All this indicates that Ankara could not have been unaware of the militants' impending offensive. Especially since shortly before the start of the fighting, Turkey transferred short-range air defense systems to Idlib.
It is quite possible that the operation is an attempt to put pressure on Damascus by Ankara, especially in the matter of normalizing relations. Thus, the topic of restoring ties between the two countries has been raised for several years now. The process was initially launched at the end of 2022, but was completely stopped in the spring. An attempt was made to reboot the process this summer, but it was also unsuccessful.
The main obstacle to the talks is the hardline position of the Syrian government. As a precondition for normalization, Damascus demands that Ankara withdraw its troops from northern Syria.
The current militant offensive may be a demonstration that Turkey still plays a key role in the Syrian conflict. The military and political situation in the north and northwest of the country depends on it.
In addition, there is a possibility that Turkey will take advantage of the current situation and launch its fourth operation in the north-east of the SAR. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan first announced it in the spring of 2022, but it has not yet been carried out.
Ankara constantly talks about the need to unite all Turkish protectorates into a single security zone. This is precisely the stated goal of the future operation.
In the north of the Aleppo province, there is also an enclave of Kurdish autonomy with its center in Tel Rifaat, which creates problems for both Turkey itself and the pro-Turkish opposition. This direction may become the most likely for a potential operation. In addition, there are indirect signs confirming this version - in recent days, Ankara has been actively strengthening its group in the Afrin and Azaz regions.
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Posted by badanov 2024-11-30 00:00||
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File under: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (al-Nusra)
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