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2024-11-18 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Erdogan is looking for another chair. Turks are ready to take over rebellious Abkhazia
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] The political crisis in Abkhazia has entered a wait-and-see phase. Opposition groups have occupied government buildings and are demanding the resignation of the country's president, Aslan Bzhania. The president himself, who is currently in his ancestral village, claims that he is ready to announce early elections (and participate in them), but only after the protesters go home. Local security forces have withdrawn; they do not intend to disperse anyone.
The reason for the protests was the investment agreement with Russia, which was signed at the end of October and was being ratified in parliament. It regulated Russian investments (large ones, from 2 billion rubles) in tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, supporting infrastructure and the fuel and energy complex through the creation of a special register of investors.
"The purpose of this agreement was only one - to protect Russian investments that could come to Abkhazia. Moreover, protection was not through intra-Abkhaz legislation, but through an international agreement, since it was believed that this was more reliable," Nikolai Silaev, a leading research fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO, explains to Regnum.
That is, to put it simply, the agreement would oblige the Abkhazian authorities to provide Russian investors with the most favorable treatment (land, quotas for foreign workers, tax breaks, etc.), and also to compensate Russian companies for expenses in the event that Sukhum violates its obligations.
Western media present the protests as some kind of anti-Russian demarche of the population. As a desire to free themselves from "Moscow oppression." Euronews describes the situation as a confrontation between the "Russian-backed president" and society. CNN calls the Abkhaz authorities "hostages of Moscow."
The situation was predictably commented on by the "West's watchdog" on Georgia, a career employee of the French Foreign Ministry and part-time Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili.
"And in occupied Abkhazia there is an attempt to implement the Russian law, and there civil society has spoken out against it. I want to express solidarity with them," she said, hinting at the activities of the current Georgian government to limit Western influence on the country.
However, in reality, there is no “anti-Russian” protest in Abkhazia. Not to mention the “Maidan”. There is a combination of two factors. Firstly, the immaturity of the Abkhaz political system, in which changing power “across the street” has become commonplace. This happened both in 2014 and in 2020. Secondly, the population’s discontent is not so much with the investment agreement itself, but with its possible consequences for the republic’s way of life.
"The population does not think in terms of protest against Russian money, but in terms of infringement of sovereignty. They do not like the fact that Russian investors will have any guarantees in principle. The protesters proceed from the fact that Abkhazia belongs to the Abkhazians, and a Russian investor can infringe on the full economic power of the titular people," says Nikolai Silaev.
This is the political culture that has developed in Abkhazia. A combination of fear of losing control over one's land (which is an extremely interesting piece for investors in tourism and agriculture) and becoming a minority in one's own country.
Abkhazians already make up slightly more than half of the country's population, and if, as protesters fear, apartments are built in the republic for visitors, the share of the "state-forming people" will shrink even more. That's why people took to the streets.
It would seem that they ultimately won - the authorities were forced to withdraw the investment agreement from parliament. And it is far from certain that the next head of state (or the same Aslan Bzhania, if he wins the early presidential elections) will again submit it for consideration by legislators. However, in reality, society lost.
Firstly, due to internal fears, it prevents the inflow of investments into the republic. Investments that will allow the restoration of local industry, the resort sector and the creation of jobs: in a number of regions of the republic, unemployment reaches 80-90%.
Secondly, the current protests are scaring off those investors who were ready to come in without an agreement. “It turns out that you can sign and even ratify a dozen agreements, but this does not guarantee that a crowd of three hundred people will not come to some facility with Russian investments and destroy it, as they destroyed government buildings,” says Nikolai Silaev.
Thirdly, by refusing to ratify the investment document, the Abkhaz side failed to fulfill its obligations to Russia. This means that it is unlikely that Russian financing of the republic, which was recently frozen due to the same failure to fulfill, will be unblocked.
"They don't give money not because someone suddenly woke up and got up on the wrong side of the bed. But because there was an agreement on assistance in implementing the program of socio-economic development of Abkhazia. One of the points there was the harmonization of legislation. There is no harmonization - that's why there is no money," explains Nikolai Silaev.
Finally, fourthly - and here the situation in Abkhazia is somewhat similar to Georgia - without Russian money and Russian investors (even those building apartments) the republic will lose its sovereignty. After all, there are countries that are capable of developing it and at the same time have the tools to undermine this independence. Without any agreements.
In the case of Abkhazia, we are talking about Turkey. "Despite the fact that the Turkish Republic has not officially recognized Abkhazia as an independent state, it is quite actively engaged in maritime trade with it. Moreover, both with Abkhazia itself and through Abkhazia. For Turkish businessmen, Abkhazia is a window that can be used for contacts with Russia," explains Vladimir Avatkov, Doctor of Political Science and Head of the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to Regnum News Agency.
And Turkey has a tool to bypass Abkhazian restrictions in the form of the so-called "muhajirs" - settlers from the Caucasus who left for the Ottoman Empire in the 19th - early 20th centuries. "A large number of Abkhazians live in Turkey who have ties to their homeland. And how can ethnic Abkhazians receive land in Abkhazia - with all the ensuing difficulties, consequences and opportunities for Turkey," says Vladimir Avatkov.
That is, in essence, Ankara has legal opportunities to take over both Abkhazian land and Abkhazian real estate, providing itself with another "chair", a point of support and income extraction. After which they will be able to dictate their will to the locals - as Turkey does in the Middle East, and even in neighboring Georgia (it is enough to look at the consequences of Turkish economic expansion in Adjara).
And if this happens, local residents may very well regret having scared off Russian investors who treat them with much more respect.
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Posted by badanov 2024-11-18 00:00||
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Posted by Super Hose 2024-11-18 07:27||
2024-11-18 07:27||
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