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2024-11-08 Home Front: Politix
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The Return of the King: How Trump Triumphed and What to Expect from Him Now
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Direct Translation via Googler Translate. Edited.
by Malek Dudakov
[REGNUM] The recent presidential elections in the United States ended in a real triumph for Donald Trump and the Republicans. The extent of his victory surprised even many of Trump's fellow party members, who had hoped for success but were confident that the gap with Kamala Harris would be minimal. How did they manage to achieve such a result and what will it mean for America and the world?
Trump's campaign team had been radiating confident optimism for the last three or four weeks before the election. The teammates had even begun to divide up the posts in the future administration in advance. It seemed a bit reckless, but such optimism was based on closed polls conducted by the Republicans, which pointed to Trump's victory in all seven key states.
As a result, the closed sociology of the Republicans turned out to be much closer to reality than public polls or electoral models of the Democrats. American sociologists once again underestimated the level of support for Trump, as was already the case in 2016 and 2020. True, in this election they at least did not write him off. But the consensus was that Trump would take only some of the states and the distribution of electors would be approximately equal.
In the end, Trump won quite easily with 312 electors, both in the southern US – in Arizona, Nevada – and on the east coast – in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. He also managed to win in the Midwest – in Michigan and Wisconsin. It was a real “red wave” that literally washed away the Democrats. The Republicans showed a sharp increase in their level of support in almost all of America.
Former swing states like Florida and Ohio gave Trump a whopping 12-13 point lead. Even in traditionally Democratic states like California and New York, he won 40-45 percent, far more than he had four or eight years ago. That wave of support has been a huge help to Republicans in elections below the presidential level.
In the Senate, the Republicans take 52-53 seats, or even more. In the lower chamber, they also have a good chance of maintaining a shaky majority and keeping Mike Johnson as speaker. Trump desperately needs to have both houses of Congress under Republican control, otherwise he will not be able to carry out the promised reforms.
The exit polls that are trickling out show that Trump has dramatically increased his support among ethnic minorities, especially Hispanics and Asians. Almost half of Hispanics voted for him, an unprecedented figure. And he won about half of the votes of the “zoomers” generation, born after 1998.
Democrats' hopes that a young and ethnically diverse electorate would keep them in power forever have been dashed. The reality is far more complex.
For example, the same Hispanics are terribly unhappy with the importation of a huge number of illegal immigrants, who are taking away their jobs. The Democrats, however, have only imposed on them their “racial-gender” agenda, which is of little interest to anyone outside of university campuses and the editorial offices of liberal media.
The Democratic Party is still recovering from this real defeat, and an internal war and search for the guilty are already breaking out in its ranks. The left wing is rebelling and demanding an even more “progressive” ideology in the next elections. The establishment accuses the left of causing an internal split with their pro-Palestinian rallies.
The Muslim street did indeed have a significant impact on the elections.
For example, in Muslim-majority cities in Michigan like Dearborn, which is called the Islamist capital of the United States, Trump won. The Muslim diaspora supported Trump and independent anti-war candidates like Jill Stein. Now they will demand that Trump quickly de-escalate in the Middle East.
The Democrats will have to do a long and painful job of correcting their mistakes.
Their shaky minority electoral coalition simply fell apart. We should expect attempts to move away from playing the race-gender card in the presidential elections and to tone down the heat of the culture wars in the US with the same transgender people. It is quite possible that in the next elections in 2028, the Democratic Party will nominate a white man like California Governor Gavin Newsom, since the black woman Harris, taken under the quota, failed everything.
The "mail magic" that took off in the last elections did not help Kamala either. After all, many states tightened control over voting, and portable ballot boxes, into which ballots were thrown en masse, were no longer everywhere. And the Republicans acted wisely, placing their bets on early and mail voting.
They managed to gain such momentum that by election day it was already difficult to beat it with ballot stuffing and fraud, although there were probably also many cases of illegal or deceased voting. It’s just that Trump’s lead in key states, unlike in 2020, was so significant that falsifications could no longer influence the final outcome of the election.
Trump received a complete carte blanche from voters – the majority of voters voted for him nationwide. The Republicans managed to achieve this for the first time in twenty years – since the re-election of George W. Bush in 2004. Americans placed their hopes on Trump to pull the country out of the current systemic crisis with division, and to stabilize the international situation so as not to slide into a third world war.
Trump is inheriting a very heavy legacy of “Bidenism,” and if the situation cannot be quickly rectified, his ratings will quickly collapse.
The president-elect intends to lower taxes first and foremost and launch another round of trade wars with tariffs on imports from the European Union and China. A program to deport illegal immigrants and strengthen the southern border of the United States is expected.
At the same time, the Democrats retain the ability to block Trump's initiatives in the Senate, where many decisions require 60 votes to pass. They will certainly actively use this.
In foreign policy, the new team will most likely first tackle the Middle East agenda.
They want to summon Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington and demand a roadmap for resolving the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon. This is what the American electorate, tired of Middle East tensions, is waiting for. Trump is widely considered a pro-Israel politician, so he has more room to maneuver to pressure Netanyahu and force him to change his policy.
Trump will likely be helping his Eurosceptic friends in Europe like Viktor Orban, who needs American protection to wage war on Euro-bureaucracy. Relations with Britain will be very tense, especially in light of the way Labour actively interfered in the US elections on Harris’s behalf.
In the Chinese direction, we should expect a further “exchange” of increased tariffs and sanctions, although some billionaire sponsors of Trump hope to eventually somehow enter into serious negotiations on all the contradictions between the US and China.
Well, the question with Ukraine remains open.
The lobbyists of Volodymyr Zelensky's office seem to have burned all bridges in relations with Trump. Now their clumsy attempts to rewind everything back are unlikely to lead to anything. The new US president will first try to impose his vision of resolving the Ukrainian conflict. And if that doesn't work, then he can, according to his favorite habit, wash his hands of the situation and remove himself from the situation, shifting responsibility to Europe.
In any case, Kyiv does not expect anything good - the volume of tranches from the US will steadily decrease. And the focus of Washington's foreign policy will be shifted to those areas that Trump sees as a higher priority - such as competition with China in Asia.
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