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2024-10-30 Europe
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Gypsies and Russophiles spring a surprise at Bulgarian elections
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Igor Ivanenko
[REGNUM] On October 27, Bulgaria held its seventh parliamentary elections in the last two years. The degree of tension is indicated by the fact that one of the parties stumbled over the barrier when entering the latest protocols of the election commissions into the CEC system.
Thus, the final result of the small Eurosceptic party "Greatness" fell to 3.999% (with a passing threshold of 4%), as a result of which it will lose its parliamentary faction.
WINNERS AND COALITIONS
The formal winner of the election race was the center-right bloc "GERB - Union of Democratic Forces" (GERB-SDS) headed by former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. In the People's Assembly of the 51st convocation, its supporters will receive 69 of 240 mandates.
Their objective ally is the second-place winner, another pro-Western bloc, Continue Changes – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB). This left-liberal alliance won 37 seats.
It is obvious that the votes of these two pro-Western political forces are not enough to form a coalition. To overcome the protracted political crisis, they clearly need a third partner.
Previously, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) acted as such. Its specificity lies in its reliance on national and religious minorities (mainly ethnic Turks and Muslim Bulgarians).
While the leadership of the liberal pro-Western parties in Bulgaria was undisputed, the DPS limited itself to the role of an informal situational ally. But as the support of the "Westerners" weakened, their former junior partner began to claim equal status. Moreover, in the last elections, in June 2024, the DPS even received a "silver" result, overtaking the PP-DB in popularity.
But the image of the pro-Turkish party of the democratic coalition does not correspond at all. Not only is the honorary president of the DPS the oligarch Ahmed Dogan, who is odious to the liberal public, but also the official leader of the movement Delyan Peevski has been convicted of corruption. In the US and UK, the latter is officially a figure in the "Magnitsky list".
After the previous parliamentary elections, when there was talk of creating a pro-Western coalition, the Anglo-Saxon-oriented PP-DB bloc openly stated that it would not join the alliance if Peevski was a member. Largely because of this, the liberals failed to agree on a coalition government four months ago.
When the new election race began, a very timely split occurred in the DPS. It was caused by an attempt by the old leaders, led by Dogan, to get rid of Peevski. However, he received unexpectedly large support in a number of local branches of the party and the parliamentary faction. Behind the desire to remove Peevski was the desire to make the formation of a “Euro-Atlantic” coalition in the 51st People’s Assembly less problematic.
However, the initiators of this plan clearly miscalculated. Peevski developed such an energetic activity that the association he headed, "DPS - New Beginning" (DPS-NN), was able to obtain the fourth result in the elections - 30 seats. Dogan's supporters, who went to the elections under the brand "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (APS), received only 19 mandates.
Thus, if we add up the resources of GERB-SDS, PP-DB and APS, the three of them have 125 votes. This is barely enough to form a coalition (at least 121 mandates. - Ed.). Moreover, the process of disengagement of the two wings of the DPS has not yet been completed, and Dogan may experience an outflow of supporters.
STRENGTHENING THE PRESIDENT
Despite all the tension, the parliamentary elections that took place were notable for their low turnout. Less than 39% of voters came to the ballot box. Moreover, a certain portion of them, according to a number of observers, were “bought votes.”
For example, even before the vote, a statement was circulated by the Bulgarian hacker group "Elfi" about the planned mass purchase of voters' votes. The operation was allegedly being prepared by a community of 200 people led by Peevski. Moreover, all 200 names were made public. A significant part of the list consisted of people with a criminal past.
Law enforcement agencies failed to detect major voter fraud, but apparently it was not without it. According to the findings of the Alpha Research company, the Roma voted especially actively for Peevsky's movement. In the total number of votes cast for DPS-NN, the share of representatives of this ethnic group was 25%, despite the fact that its representatives are usually not distinguished by an active civic position.
Thanks in large part to the phenomenal success of Peevski's newly formed political party, the leader of the victorious political bloc Borisov has another coalition option. In addition to GERB-SDS, DPS-NN, it could include the Socialist Party and the populist party "There is such a people".
Borisov himself hinted that such an option is not excluded in his first speech after the results were announced. According to the former prime minister, his party is ready to cooperate with all political forces represented in parliament, with the exception of Vozrozhdenie.
The Revival Party is considered the largest "pro-Russian" force in Bulgaria and took third place in the recent elections, receiving a faction of 35 deputies. Moreover, the gap with second place was minimal. In a number of electoral districts in Bulgaria, the Russophiles came in second, and at some point it seemed that the Russophiles could bypass the left-liberals from PP-DB on a national scale. However, third place is also a serious success for Revival.
At foreign polling stations, the Bulgarian diaspora in Russia and Moldova voted especially actively for this party. "Renaissance" was preferred by 64% of Bulgarians, who mainly live compactly in the Taraclia region of Moldova and in Gagauzia. So it is not difficult to predict the preferences of the Bulgarian community already in the second round of the presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova on November 3.
Thus, the process of creating a ruling coalition in the newly elected Bulgarian parliament promises to be difficult. The reduction in the number of parliamentary parties slightly improves the starting positions of the participants due to the redistribution of the votes of "Greatness", but does not guarantee success.
The most important circumstance is that Borisov’s liberal partners from the PP-DB do not want to see him as prime minister.
Borisov considers this unacceptable, but he clearly has to give in to something. After all, time in Bulgaria is clearly not working in favor of the parliamentary republic.
With each new legislative elections, which fail to produce a viable coalition to form a "real" and not "service" government, the number of supporters of strengthening the role of the head of state increases. Especially since President Rumen Radev is already the most popular Bulgarian politician.
Liberal analysts fear that the rotation of members of the Constitutional Court scheduled for November could lead to the emergence of a pro-presidential majority in it.
After this, it is quite possible that restrictions on the appointment of “service” (temporary) prime ministers by the head of state will be lifted.
The pro-presidential political “March 3 Movement” (named in honor of the Day of Bulgaria’s Liberation from the Ottoman Yoke by Russia) is also at a “low start”, which could significantly change the political situation in Bulgaria as early as 2025–2026.
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Posted by badanov 2024-10-30 00:00||
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