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2024-10-29 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

[RealClearWire] Residents of western North Carolina try to reconcile with the “once in a thousand years” storm that wasn’t supposed to happen to them.

Posted by Skidmark 2024-10-29 03:37|| || Front Page|| [11152 views ] Top

#1 Johnstown Flood - 1889. Dam broke - much higher death toll. Helen was not a "thousand year storm" apparently.

Posted by Mercutio 2024-10-29 09:22|| 2024-10-29 09:22|| Front Page Top

#2 The hurricane may not have been a thousand year storm, but could easily generate local rainfall events which match the theoretical probability of once in a thousand years.

I stood in a valley in suburban Kansas City where they had two one-hundred year storms, back to back. Might have been equivalent to one 500-year event. Probability and statistics. Meteorology. Hydrology. Science.

Posted by Bobby 2024-10-29 16:48|| 2024-10-29 16:48|| Front Page Top

#3 A "thousand year event" (flood,storm, etc.) doesn't mean that if it occurs, you are safe for another thousand years. It means that there is a 0.1% chance of it occurring. So if it occurs, it could happen next year or the year after.If it does, they will probably reassess the probability.

Posted by Rambler in Virginia 2024-10-29 16:53|| 2024-10-29 16:53|| Front Page Top

#4 How silly of me. I forgot man-made, elite-controllable, Climate Change science.

Posted by Bobby 2024-10-29 16:54|| 2024-10-29 16:54|| Front Page Top

#5 #3 - Spot on. Journalists are unable to grasp statistics.

Posted by Frank G 2024-10-29 18:04|| 2024-10-29 18:04|| Front Page Top

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