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2024-10-19 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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After taking out Sinwar, Israel aims to lock in strategic gains before US election
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Just in case. [IsraelTimes] Biden expected to use Hamas chief’s killing to pressure Netanyahu to end Gaza war, though latter may choose to wait him out as Israeli leaders seek to reshape regional order
The killing of Hamas
 ..the braying voice of Islamic Resistance®,...
chief Yahya Sinwar, criminal mastermind of the terror onslaught through southern Israel that ignited the war in the Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response ...
Strip, marked a major triumph for Israel. But Israeli leaders are also seeking to lock in strategic gains that go beyond military victories — to reshape the regional landscape in Israel’s favor and shield its borders from any future attacks, sources familiar with their thinking say.
| Before thousands of Hamas-led murderous Moslems stormed southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and abducting 251, Israel had been "willing to tolerate a high-level threat," responding to rocket fire from the Paleostinian terror group and other foes with limited strikes, Schenker said. "No longer." |
With United States presidential elections approaching, Israel is rushing to inflict maximum damage on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
, and seizing the moment to carve out de facto buffer zones in a bid to create an irreversible reality before a new US president takes office in January, eight sources told Rooters.
By intensifying its military operations against Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel wants to ensure that its enemies and their chief patron, Iran, don’t regroup and threaten Israeli citizens again, according to Western diplomats, Lebanese and Israeli officials, and other regional sources.
US President Joe The Big Guy Biden
...46th president of the U.S. Too old and senile to be prosecuted, not too old and senile to set national policy...
is expected to use Sinwar’s killing to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wind down the war in Gaza. But Netanyahu may prefer to wait out the end of Biden’s term and take his chances with whoever wins the election — the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris
What can be, unburdened by what has been
, or Republican rival Donald Trump
...The tack in the backside of the Democratic Party...
, with whom Netanyahu has had close ties.
Before considering any ceasefire agreements, Israel is accelerating its military campaign to push Hezbollah away from its northern border while thrusting into northern Gaza’s densely packed Jabaliya refugee camp in what Paleostinians and United Nations
...an idea whose time has gone...
agencies fear could be an attempt to seal off northern Gaza from the rest of the enclave.
The smart thing, of course, would be for Hamas to sue for peace before Israel accomplishes separation, so that Hamas might get something instead of nothing. It’s a sure bet, though, that Hamas will choose to miss this opportunity, depending on an undefined deus ex machina to reset all 10/6/2023. To be fair, President Biden is trying his best. Israel is also planning a response to a ballistic-missile barrage carried out by Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
on October 1, its second-ever direct attack on Israel.
Iran prefers to play puppet master rather than risk its fingers directly. "There is a new landscape, a new geopolitical change in the region," said David Schenker, a former US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs who is now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute think tank.
Before thousands of Hamas-led murderous Moslems stormed southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and abducting 251, Israel had been "willing to tolerate a high-level threat," responding to rocket fire from the Paleostinian terror group and other foes with limited strikes, Schenker said. "No longer."
"This time Israel is fighting on many fronts. It’s Hamas; it’s Hezbollah, and Iran is coming soon," he said.
Formally announcing that IDF troops had killed Sinwar in Gaza’s Rafah, Netanyahu said in a statement on Thursday that the terror chief’s death "settled the score," but he warned that the Gaza war would continue with full force until Israel’s hostages were returned.
His office said it had nothing to add.
*Mic drop*
Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the IDF front man, said Sinwar’s elimination marked a "great achievement" in efforts to destroy Hamas’ military apparatus, but added there were other commanders in Gaza.
On Friday, top Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya confirmed Sinwar’s death and said the hostages would not be returned until Israel ended its "aggression" and withdrew its forces.
Israeli forces have inflicted other big blows on its enemies: a series of high-profile strikes have wiped out Hamas’s military chief Mohammed Deif, Hezbollah’s longtime leader His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
...The late, lamented satrap of the Medes and the Persians in Leb...>
, and Nasrallah’s military deputy Fuad Shukr. An explosion in Tehran in July also killed Hamas’s then-leader Ismail Haniyeh
...became Prime Minister of Gaza after the legislative elections of 2006 which Hamas won. President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed Haniyeh from office on 14 June 2007 at the height of the Fatah-Hamas festivities, but Haniyeh did not acknowledge the decree and continues as the PM of Gazoo while Abbas maintains a separate PM in the West Bank...
. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its role in the blast.
In addition, Israel says its has eliminated thousands of the groups’ fighters, captured deep tunnel networks and severely depleted their weapons arsenals.
In September, thousands of booby-trapped communications devices used by Hezbollah members were detonated — an attack for which Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility.
But Israel’s ambitions are broader than short-term military victories, however significant, the sources who spoke to Rooters said.
BROADER AMBITION
On September 23, Israel launched ground operations in Lebanon with the stated goal of driving Hezbollah back around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from its northern border, to behind the Litani River, and ensuring the Shi’ite terror group is fully disarmed after 30 years of military support from Iran. Israel says Hezbollah’s withdrawal is required by a UN resolution intended to keep peace in the area and protect residents from the terror group’s cross-border attacks.
Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted after Israel’s last war with Hezbollah in 2006, empowered international peacekeeping force UNIFIL to help Lebanon’s army keep the area south of the river free of weapons and armed personnel, other than those of the Lebanese state. Israel complains the two forces never gained control of the area from Hezbollah, long regarded as Lebanon’s most potent military force and a key player in its government.
Hezbollah has resisted disarming,
…that’s one way to described massively up-arming until almost every house in every village has its own rocket launcher and/or weapons stash hidden under the roof or in the spare bedroom, not to mention hidden access to Hezbollah’s tunnel network… claiming the need to defend Lebanon from Israel. Since last year, it has used the border strip as a base for near-daily attacks on Israeli towns and military posts along the border. The terror group has said its attacks, which began a day after the Hamas onslaught, are in solidarity with Gaza
…solidarity is pronounced pincer movement… amid the war there. Israeli officials say the only way to enforce resolution 1701, and ensure the safe return of some 60,000 residents evacuated from northern Israel, is through military action.
"At the moment, diplomacy is not enough," an Israeli diplomatic source told Rooters.
Given that the 2006 war was to enforce the provisions of the first Lebanon War — that Hezbollah be disarmed south of the Litani River, it certainly appears that diplomacy was never enough. Lebanese authorities say the offensive against Hezbollah has displaced more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon, mostly members of the Shi’ite community from which Hezbollah draws support.
Don’t start a serious war against Israel, and you’ll get to keep your nice things. Israel has also faced international criticism over incidents in which its forces fired at UN peacekeepers’ posts, injuring several of them. A Lebanese security official and a diplomat familiar with the situation in southern Lebanon said it appeared that Israel wanted to drive UNIFIL from the area along with Hezbollah.
UNIFIL’s job is to guard the region south of the Litani so that Israel feels no need to return. UNIFIL failed completely. The security official said Israeli forces were fighting for access to strategic overlook points, which are where UNIFIL bases are located.
"Their goal is to clean up this buffer zone," the diplomat said.
This could take a few weeks, if Israel aims to clear Hezbollah positions and infrastructure from a narrow band of Lebanese territory along the border, they said, but anything deeper would take much longer at the current pace.
President Biden objects to Israel bombing Hezbollah sites in Beirut. He’s not complaining about Israel plowing up the empty countryside…. On Monday, Netanyahu rejected accusations that Israel was deliberately targeting UNIFIL’s peacekeepers, but said the best way to assure their safety was to heed requests to temporarily withdraw from combat zones. The IDF says Hezbollah has been operating from sites within and adjacent to UNIFIL posts for years. The UN has said its peacekeepers will not leave their positions in southern Lebanon.
"We have to stand against ... every suggestion that if Resolution 1701 was not implemented it’s because UNIFIL did not implement, which was never its mandate," UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix told news hounds on Monday, stressing UNIFIL has a supporting role.
Supporting who to do what? Because right now it looks like they’re acting as human shields for Hezbollah, which ought not to have been the original plan. UN, US and other diplomatic envoys agree that reviving the resolution could provide the basis for a cessation of hostilities, but better implementation and enforcement mechanisms are needed. Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, told Rooters on Monday that he wanted to see "a more robust mandate for UNIFIL to deter Hezbollah."
What will happen to the various 7NIFIL national units should they choose not to deter and enforce? Any changes to the mandate would have to be authorized by the UN’s 15-member Security Council, and diplomats said there were no such discussions at the moment.
At minimum Russia and China won’t agree to change. Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said his government is prepared to deploy troops to enforce Resolution 1701 as soon as a truce takes hold.
What percent of the Lebanese army is actually on the Hezbollah payroll? The US and La Belle France have said that strengthening Lebanon’s army would be crucial to this endeavor.
Buy-in from Iran will also be needed, said the diplomat familiar with the situation in southern Lebanon. But they said Israel did not appear ready to start negotiating any truces.
"They want to push their advantage, to be in an even stronger position to negotiate," the diplomat said.
PURGING BORDERS
Israel informed several Arab states last year that it also wanted to carve out a buffer zone on the Paleostinian side of Gaza’s border. But it remains unclear how deep Israel would like it to be or how it would be enforced after the war ends.
Israel’s ongoing offensive in Jabaliya, an area that endured heavy bombardments early in the war, has raised concerns among Paleostinians and UN agencies that Israel wants to clear residents from northern Gaza. The Israeli military denies this and says it is trying to stop Hamas fighters from regrouping for more attacks.
In May, the IDF moved into the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow strip running along Gaza’s southern frontier with Egypt, giving Israel effective control over all of the Paleostinian territory’s land borders. Israel has said it will not agree to a permanent ceasefire without guarantees that whoever runs postwar Gaza will be able to prevent the corridor from being used to smuggle weapons and supplies to Hamas.
Iran is also in Israel’s crosshairs following the recent missile attack, launched amid Israel’s escalation in Lebanon. The Middle East has been on edge about Israel’s response, worried that it could disrupt oil markets and ignite a full-scale war between the arch-enemies.
Enjoy sleeping poorly. I recommend a go bag by the bed and sleeping fully dressed with your shoes on until the bad thing happens. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last week the response would be "lethal, precise, and, above all, unexpected," although he has also said Israel was not looking to open new fronts. Iran has warned repeatedly that it will not hesitate to take military action again if Israel retaliates.
The US, Israel’s chief weapons supplier, has supported campaigns against Iran-backed targets like Hezbollah and Hamas, which it has designated foreign terrorist organizations. But tensions have grown as US officials have tried to persuade Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza, curb Arclight airstrike
...KABOOM! ...
s on residential areas and negotiate ceasefires. Biden’s attempts to engage with Iran through indirect talks about restoring a 2015 nuclear deal, and his opposition to any strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, have also been points of tension. Israel views Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat.
Some diplomats suspect Netanyahu is also considering how a ceasefire might affect the election. Any breakthrough could help Harris, when Netanyahu would prefer to deal with Trump, whose hardline views on Israel, Paleostinians and Iran align more closely with his own, they say.
"There is no reason for Netanyahu to stop his wars before the American elections," said Marwan al-Muasher, Jordan’s former foreign minister, now vice president for studies at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "He’s not going to give Harris any credit or gift before the polls."
For now, Netanyahu appears determined to redraw the map around Israel in his favor by purging its enemies from its borders.
"He put his win in his pocket and is pursuing his wars and imposing a new [regional] status quo," said the Lebanese political official. 
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