Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Victor Vasiliev
| The GUR is training one set of terrorists for the same reason Russia is training a different set of terrorists: to be cannon fodder so their own people can do more productive things. And Russia is talking loudly about the GUR mote so people won’t notice the Russian log. |
[REGNUM] In recent months, the flow of news from the African region of Sahel, directly concerning Russia and the Russian presence on the continent, continues to grow. And often it brings only negative things for us.
The current surge of attention to the region began with the events of July 27 in Mali, when dozens of Malian FAMA soldiers and Wagner fighters were ambushed and killed during the battle for Tinzauten. This was a heavy military and reputational loss. This was followed by a statement by the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine about helping the Tuaregs in this attack. The reaction of a number of African countries was harsh, including breaking off diplomatic relations with Ukraine.
Among the latest sharp statements, it is worth noting the speech of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Mali Abdoulaye Diop at the "Summit of the Future" within the framework of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. In his statement, the minister emphasized that the UN Security Council must "take responsibility" and respond to the "conscious choice" of Kiev.
"The Confederation of Sahel States, led by Mali, strongly condemns the Ukrainian government's open support for international terrorism, especially in the Sahel," he said.
At the same time, leading French media do not hesitate to provide support and express sympathy for the separatists, and also directly testify to the connections of Tuareg separatists with Ukraine.
DIFFERENT COUNTRIES, COMMON PROBLEMS
Before attempting to analyze the current flow of events and make a forecast for the prospects for their development, it is necessary to make several reservations.
Firstly, if we discuss current processes even strictly in the context of security issues, we will have to go far beyond the Sahel region states. Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad are usually considered to be part of this region. But de facto, this is already an interregional story.
According to the geographical, geo-economic and even, if you like, geopolitical division, these countries belong to different subregions of Africa - Western, Central and Northern. However, common problems of a trans-border nature, connected primarily with separatism and Islamic radicalism, unite these countries into one region.
These problems are caused, among other things, by differences in landscapes and differences in the way of life of the ethnic groups inhabiting the countries.
Along the perimeter of this entire region, with completely different political, geographical and historical initial data, almost all neighboring countries are forced to come into contact with the same problems to one degree or another. From Morocco, Algeria, Libya to Sudan, South Sudan, DR Congo, CAR, Nigeria, Cameroon, Togo, Benin, Ghana, Guinea and others. Perhaps with the exception of Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire.
Secondly, it is necessary to recognize and record the global nature of the confrontation with Ukraine. This instrument, if it remains in the hands of Western opponents, will always be used against Russia.
Today, the Kiev regime has fully expressed solidarity with the Tuaregs from the unrecognized entity of "Azawad." Tomorrow, it could be the separatist "March 23 Movement" in the east of the Republic of Congo. Yesterday and the day before, it was expressed in support for the Ichkerian separatist terrorists who suffered a complete defeat in Russia in the 2000s.
The confrontation in the modern world has acquired a global character, and Kyiv, as the stakes are rising, has received funds to implement a variety of "wants" in Africa - if only to spite Russia. This includes the supply of weapons to African actors under criminal and gray schemes, and the opening of a whole network of new embassies in African countries, and the training of Tuareg separatists in military technologies using UAVs.
Thirdly, it is impossible not to acknowledge that behind all current global events there is a very public and very precise planning of destructive processes on the part of the main player in the West African region – the USA.
NEW US STRATEGY
All the problems of the recently formed "Confederation of Sahel States" have been predicted in one way or another, and in some places even artificially constructed by the United States. It does not matter whether it is by the hands of Ukraine or terrorist organizations such as the "Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM)" and others.
Back in January, The Wall Street Journal published a very remarkable article acknowledging the problems and tactical defeat of the United States in the Sahel and simultaneously outlining the contours of a new strategy in West Africa.
If we are to believe the publication of a publication known for its inside information from Western intelligence agencies, the world's first army, whose technological power allowed it to literally wipe out more than one of the strongest regional powers, is retreating before the threat of African jihadists in slippers.
Yes, the growth of Islamist sentiments in Africa is a real fact, and it is fueled by objective problems - an explosive growth in the birth rate, underdeveloped infrastructure, the raw materials nature of the economy, etc. But for the States to simply admit their impotence in the face of several thousand poorly trained natives - sounds ridiculous.
In reality, the US withdrawal from the Sahel is, of course, due to the miscalculations of American analysts, who placed their bets on Niger's army special forces and failed to notice the growing role and popularity of Russia in the region, as well as pan-African ideas in general.
Last July, a coup took place in Niamey, and French and American troops were expelled from the country. The foreign policy of the new military government of General Abdourahmane Chiani is firmly oriented towards Russia. This was a grave disappointment to the Americans in their own abilities in Africa.
"Niger has been the linchpin of this approach. The U.S. has built a $110 million base in Agadez and stationed about 1,100 troops in the country," The Wall Street Journal writes.
The ultra-modern base in Agadez has effectively been closed down, and aid to the Niger military has been stopped. Among the new potential allies (and military bases as a consequence) are Benin, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. In Benin and Côte d'Ivoire, American air bases for UAVs have already been launched, and instructors are present. In Ghana, a similar base has been operating for a long time.
The new strategy is military cooperation and the deployment of bases in several coastal countries of West Africa at once. In this way, the US blocks the growth of influence of Russia and other competitors in the region. No access to the sea - no logistics, no logistics - no influence.
Those same jihadists, before whom the American military suddenly retreated, have indeed gained great strength over the past six months. Including through mastering modern methods of armed confrontation using UAVs, which they learned with the help of Ukrainian military specialists.
Sahel is left alone with its problems and with Russia. The Confederation of Sahel States, which is now the focus of attention of all African countries, and especially neighboring Chad, is first and foremost a pro-Russian geopolitical project in Africa.
And any military failure or defeat of the Confederation countries is automatically projected onto Russia and all Russian projects on the continent.
WAR WITH THE TUAREGS
The main role in destabilizing the situation in retaliation against Russia and the Confederation allied with Moscow is assigned to the Tuaregs. The main blow is aimed at Mali, since it is a kind of key to the entire region. Bamako is behind the formation of the Confederation of Sahel States, and the very possibility of its emergence. As well as behind the manifestation of pan-African and pro-Russian political forces and their rise to power. The leader of Mali, Colonel Assimi Goita, is the president of the Confederation of Sahel and sets the tone in the unification processes of the three states.
The main problem of the state of Mali since gaining independence is the separatism of the peoples inhabiting the north-east of the country - up to 40% of its territory. First of all, we are talking about the Tuaregs. Today they are sufficiently organized in the ideological, military and political sense to be a full-fledged alternative to the current authorities.
Their unrecognized state formation of Azawad itself was made possible by direct political and military support from Paris and Algeria since 2014. Therefore, there is nothing unexpected in the appearance of Tuareg leaders in the leading media of France.
For example, just recently, Attaye Ag Mohamed, who is responsible for external relations of the key Tuareg separatist organization, the Strategic Composition for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA), confirmed on France24 that he has ties with Ukraine.
"The connection was established recently and continues <…> We communicate with various Ukrainian departments and discuss not only issues of data exchange," he said. The Tuareg avoided the question of whether Kiev trains Azawad representatives to handle drones, saying that he " cannot provide details of relations with Ukraine."
The newspaper "Le Monde" was even more frank, citing its own sources in the Tuareg community. Since this summer, separatist fighters from the CSP-DPA group in Mali have been actively using UAVs to attack the regular army and the Russian armed contingent in the country.
Kyiv supplies the terrorists with drones, and a number of CSP-DPA members have been trained in Ukraine. This fact, which they tried to keep secret until recently, has now become a subject of their bragging.
Footage of drone attacks on military bases in northern Mali has been widely shared on social media, with supporters of the CSP-DPA praising the idea that the rebels finally have the capability to carry out airstrikes that could change the balance of power.
The first widespread use of CSP-DPA drones was recorded during the July battles for Tinsauten, a town in northern Mali, near the border with Algeria. In the same area, separatists, together with jihadists from JNIM (former Al Qaeda in West Africa*), carried out a brutal ambush on a convoy of Malian armed forces (FAMA), which was accompanied by Wagner fighters.
According to Le Monde, cooperation between Ukrainian special services and terrorist groups began in early 2024. The publication's sources confirm that at the beginning of the year, several CSP members traveled to Ukraine via Mauritania and Moldova to undergo training in the production and operation of drones.
And in March, Ukrainian instructors went to Mali to continue training militants on the ground, and are still there.
GOOD, BAD, UKRAINIANS
The French carefully constructed strategy of dividing the radicals into “good” separatists and “bad” jihadists is failing: it is quite difficult to distinguish one from the other. Yesterday’s enemies are now acting in concert. The coordination between separatist and jihadist groups is not hidden by anyone. Moreover, some of yesterday’s Tuareg leaders are now becoming jihadists.
Numerous jihadist attacks along the entire perimeter of the Sahel Confederation border add to the problem of separatism in northeastern Mali. Of particular note is the August attack on the airport and the gendarme school in Bamako. It occurred on the anniversary of the formation of the "Sahel Alliance", and dozens of cadets were killed.
Today, Tuareg leaders are fighting with weapons in hand against the legitimate authorities and do not deny their allied ties with the most odious jihadist organization in the region — JNIM. And in these conditions, their support by leading French media is in fact self-exposure. The picture is completed by the involvement of the Kyiv regime in supporting the "good" Tuaregs.
There is not even a step left, but only half a step, before the French admit their support for terrorism in Africa. And that means their entire strategy in the region since 2014 is a total lie to justify their own military and political presence.
France, with its extremely negative reputation in the Sahel, has no chance anymore. Many people understand this even in the “metropolis” itself – from the ultra-left to the ultra-right. With the exception of Emmanuel Macron.
It is obvious that France's goal today is to at least "annoy" the leaders of the Confederation of Sahel States, who dared to leave Paris's guardianship. There is no longer any talk of any positive agenda or prospects. And behind the facade of Paris' dirty and emotional game, Washington is the one who is getting the real profit, implementing a new strategy.
France, with its political and military provocations, will sooner or later leave the region, but the problems for the Confederation will not go away: the global interests of the United States on the Black Continent have not been cancelled.
The main question is whether Moscow will be able not only to ensure security in the region, but also to provide a project for positive economic and political development for the countries of the Confederation.
If so, Russia remains in the pool of such leading states as the US, China, India, Great Britain and France. If not, we will at least have to forget about many of our ambitions in Black Africa, and therefore abandon the long-term strategy of asymmetric responses to our Western opponents.
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