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2024-10-08 Arabia
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'They Turn a blind eye.' Why Israel Isn't Hunting Houthi Leaders
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] In recent months, the Israeli army and intelligence services have launched a real hunt for the leaders of pro-Iranian groups that are part of the “Axis of Resistance.”
Since the high-profile assassination of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in August 2024, more than a hundred high-ranking resistance figures in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Palestine have been eliminated one after another. Among them was Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, whom the Israelis had been hunting for two decades.
At the same time, the Yemeni Houthis (the Ansar Allah movement) remain almost completely outside the scope of the Israeli liquidators’ activity. Of course, the Israeli air force and coalition forces periodically strike the movement’s infrastructure – the port city of Hodeida and the capital city of Sana’a, occupied by the Houthis, have suffered from the raids. However, the frequency and scale of these operations are incomparable to the Israeli actions in the Lebanese and Syrian directions.
It seems as if Israel is "forgetting" about the Yemeni rebels, although they are the ones who are causing the greatest damage to its economy with their naval blockade. Tel Aviv has a slightly different opinion on this matter.
| How is Houthi Yemen doing without oil or a working electrical power plant after the last round of Israeli airstrikes? |
ARABS ARE NOT EAGER TO HELP
The restraint towards Ansar Allah is largely due to Yemen's territorial remoteness - Israel does not have a common land border with this country, which significantly reduces the operational capabilities of the army (IDF).
Despite the fact that Israel has already clearly demonstrated its readiness to “reach out” to Yemeni territories (Operation Long Arm, July 2024), every such attack is impossible without the use of the airspace and airfields of Arab allies - primarily the monarchies of the Persian Gulf.
The prospect of becoming a “bouncing ground” for Israeli operations does not inspire enthusiasm among the Arabs, especially considering that the main burden of repelling Ansar Allah’s retaliatory strike will fall on them. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, which experienced the consequences of the conflict with the Houthis on their oil and gas infrastructure a couple of years ago, are now looking for any excuse to avoid participating in such adventures.
Moreover, Yemen’s neighbors – even those relatively loyal to Tel Aviv – are reluctant to publicly support “Israeli aggression,” since such an alliance is guaranteed to undermine their position in the Arab world and undermine all efforts to reduce tensions between Arab countries and Iran. Trading three years of diplomatic work for the destruction of several oil terminals in Yemen does not seem like an equal trade-off.
In many ways, Israel's zeal is also restrained by the United States, for which maintaining the status quo in Yemen is important for the implementation of a larger geopolitical combination. Washington hopes to use the "inter-Yemeni settlement," where the Houthi leaders act as a fairly "handshakeable" force, to stabilize the situation on the Arabian Peninsula as a whole. This is one of the unspoken conditions for Saudi Arabia's return to negotiations on normalizing relations with Israel, and the White House is making efforts to fulfill its promise.
At the same time, the US, together with Great Britain, continues to carry out missile and bomb strikes on the Houthi infrastructure – however, they are aimed more at “demonstrating the involvement” of Tel Aviv’s Western allies in the conflict than at preparing for more serious operations.
| True. But that’s their choice — they could be much more effective if they wanted. |
Finally, Israel simply does not have enough objective data on the opponent’s routes. The current leader of Ansar Allah, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, is known for rarely staying in one place and interacting with visitors exclusively online via video link. Israeli intelligence spent several decades tracking down the previous such opponent, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
At the same time, official Tel Aviv clearly does not want to conduct an “operation for the sake of an operation”: any attack of this kind against the Houthi leadership will be perceived as a threat to the movement as a whole and will only increase the frequency of Ansar Allah’s strikes on Israeli targets. Especially since after the death of the movement’s founder, Hussein al-Houthi, in 2004, the image of al-Houthi Jr. became practically inseparable from the image of Ansar Allah.
NO STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS
Although Tel Aviv is so far keeping a close eye on the Houthi actions, this does not mean that it has completely abandoned the idea of revenge for the economic and image damage. However, preparation for the attack will require much more time - especially since a significant part of the resources is diverted to preparations for an expanded operation against Hezbollah, which is a more significant priority for the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Israeli strategy will be largely influenced by the results of the US presidential elections. A victory for the Democrats does not promise major changes in the tactics of Israeli forces against the pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance". Tel Aviv will continue "pin strikes" aimed at disuniting Iranian proxy groups.
At the same time, the triumph of the Republicans in the US will open up opportunities for lobbying for more daring operations: Tel Aviv will be able to use Washington’s authority to “open” the airspace of the Arabian monarchies for its military aviation and thereby increase pressure on Yemen’s infrastructure.
In both cases, the main target will still be the oil terminals. By destabilizing the energy sector, Israel hopes to stir up the population in the Houthi-controlled territories and provoke an uprising in the rear. Thus, making it easier for itself to fight Ansar Allah.
However, this does not go beyond the current format of the struggle. In order to move on to a targeted “hunt” for the Houthi leaders, Tel Aviv needs a more compelling reason, since the blockade of the Red Sea and indirect support for the interests of Palestine do not pose an existential threat to the country (unlike the incessant strikes of Hezbollah on the northern regions of Israel), no matter how much the Israeli “hawks” try to prove it.
Such a reason could be, for example, the full-fledged joining of Ansar Allah in Operation True Promise 3, which official Tehran announced recently in response to Israeli threats of a “retaliatory strike.”
In this sense, Israel does not limit itself to any “statute of limitations” and is ready to fight pro-Iranian forces in stages.
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Posted by badanov 2024-10-08 00:00||
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Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-10-08 00:57||
2024-10-08 00:57||
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