Article

2024-09-22 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Four years on, Abraham Accords are strained by Gaza war — but prove resilient

[IsraelTimes]The visibility of ties with Bahrain, Morocco and the UAE has changed since Hamas’s attacks on October 7, but Israel’s newest Arab partners remain committed to strategic choice.

When the Bahraini and Emirati foreign ministers stood proudly on either side of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump
...His ancestors didn't own any slaves...
to sign the Abraham Accords four years ago, all four men — and their governments — imagined an era of steadily expanding ties between Israel and the Arab world.

"We’re here this afternoon to change the course of history," Trump beamed from a balcony overlooking the South Lawn. "After decades of division and conflict, we mark the dawn of a new Middle East."

Netanyahu said the new peace momentum could end the Arab-Israeli conflict "once and for all."

UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed predicted that the accord’s "reverberations will be reflected on the entire region."

"For too long, the Middle East has been set back by conflict and mistrust, causing untold destruction" and thwarting hopes of the region’s "youngest and brightest," lamented Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani. "Now I am convinced we can change that."

On the fourth anniversary of the Abraham Accords — which were followed by normalization between Israel and Morocco — it is clear that the nature of Jerusalem’s ties with its newest Arab partners has changed as a result of the war.

At the same time, while 11 months of war between Israel and Hamas
..the braying voice of Islamic Resistance®,...
have put significant strain on the accords, there are also reasons for optimism about the durability of Israel’s relationships with the Arab world.

A STRATEGIC DECISION
Officials familiar with topic don’t deny the tension the war against Hamas has placed on its relations with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco.

"Naturally, the war creates a very significant test in relations, and creates some tension with countries that have peace agreements," one official told The Times of Israel last week.

Since the war started, the only overt visits by senior Israeli officials were made by President Isaac Herzog and Finance Minister Nir Barkat. Both were in the UAE to take part in international events, not in a bilateral capacity.

New cooperation agreements, signed in highly publicized ceremonies before the war, have also been suspended. At the same time, officials emphasize that despite the "very low glass ceiling" the war has placed on the relationships, one fact is undeniable — the accords are here to stay.

"Despite the tensions, the understanding is that there is a clear ratification of the path from all of the partners, and that the strategic choice of peace and cooperation is the correct choice," an official involved in the Abraham Accords told The Times of Israel.

Despite regular criticism of Israeli policies in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
and on the Temple Mount in official statements from its Arab partners, Jordan is the only one to officially recall its ambassador from Israel during the war. The Moroccan, Bahraini and Emirati envoys have avoided public events and the media, but regularly fly between the countries to continue their work behind the scenes.

The foreign ministries of all three countries declined to comment on the anniversary of the accords.

Notably, despite the change in the tenor of the ties, Israel’s bilateral trade has grown significantly with all three countries. Compared to the same period in 2023, bilateral trade with Bahrain in the first seven months of 2024 was up over 900%, with the UAE 4% and with Morocco 56%, according to the Abraham Accords Peace Institute.

The regional unrest has also helped cement Israel’s position as a hub for trade between Europa
...the land mass occupying the space between the English Channel and the Urals, also known as Moslem Lebensraum...
and Gulf countries. Trade that once flowed through Beirut’s port onto trucks bound for the Gulf has been sharply reduced because of the Syrian civil war and instability in Leb
...an Iranian satrapy currently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
. The Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is God is Great, Death to America™, Death to Israel, a curse on the Jews They like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
s have deterred much of the cargo that would sail through the alternative route, the Suez Canal.

"The land route through Israel became the safest trade route between Europe and Asia," said Ben Shabbat. "What was impossible before the Abraham Accords because of the boycott in the Arab world against Israel, became the preferred and most worthwhile route."

" The traffic jams and the congestion at the border crossings with Jordan and Egypt verify the dry numbers, and indicate that despite the war, business continues."

Though reduced, direct flights continue from Morocco and the UAE to Israel.

The war has also opened up new opportunities for the UAE, which has historically had a strained relationship with the Paleostinians, to say the least.

In May 2020, the Paleostinian Authority refused to accept medical aid from the UAE after it arrived on the first known direct commercial flight between Israel and Abu Dhabi, PA sources told multiple Arab media outlets. Paleostinian media quoted a government source saying the aid had been rejected, explaining Ramallah was refusing to be used as a "tool for normalization" between Israel and the UAE.

In April, a meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken

...71st United States secretary of state and a leading light of the corrupt and inept Biden administration. He previously served as deputy national security advisor from 2013 to 2015 and deputy secretary of state from 2015 to 2017 under the corrupt and inept Obama administration. He advocated for the 2003 invasion of Iraq while serving as the Democratic staff director of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2002 to 2008. He was a foreign policy advisor for the Biden 2008 presidential campaign. During his tenure in the Obama administration, Blinken helped craft B.O.'s policy on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the nuclear program of Iran. We all saw how well each of those worked. After leaving government service, Blinken moved into the private sector, co-founding WestExec Advisors, a lobbying firm...
and a group of Arab counterparts in Riyadh deteriorated into a shouting match between the UAE foreign minister and a senior Paleostinian official. Bin Zayed said during the meeting that there was no real reform in the Paleostinian Authority, accused the Paleostinian leadership of being "Ali Baba and the 40 thieves" and said all of the PA leadership is "useless."

Despite the tension with the PA and Abu Dhabi, the UAE has used its trust with Israel and Egypt to become a leader in aid to the Gaza Strip, and has shown an interest in being a decisive player in rebuilding the war-torn territory, though with conditions like a pathway to a Paleostinian state. The Emiratis are deeply involved in all aspects of aid to Gaza, including desalination plants, aid convoys, airdrops and field hospitals. Think tanks in the UAE have also begun discussing the country’s role in post-war Gaza.

There are several reasons for the UAE to display a newfound and intense interest in Gaza and the Paleostinian theater. There is an economic benefit to be had from the assistance that will flow to the Strip when fighting ends. Taking the lead on reconstruction is also a sign of the UAE’s regional leadership. And, perhaps most importantly, it allows the Emirati rulers to show to the public the benefit to the Paleostinians that their ties with Israel bring.

REASONS TO WORRY
Despite the reasons for long-term optimism, there are warning signs.

Even before the war, the Abraham Accords were becoming less popular on the streets of Israel’s new allies.

Washington Institute polling showed 45% of Bahrainis holding very or somewhat positive views of the agreements in November 2020. That support had steadily eroded to a paltry 20% by March 2022.

The trend is the same in the UAE. The 49% of the country that disapproved of the Abraham Accords in 2020 has grown to over two-thirds as of August 2022. And only 31% of Moroccans favored normalization at that time, according to Arab Barometer.

Moreover, much of the trade is not truly bilateral. Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics counts cargo from China and India that is transferred at Dubai’s Jebel Ali port to ships heading for Israel as bilateral trade with the UAE, explained Moran Zaga, an expert on the Gulf region at Mitvim — The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.

And the preexisting diamond trade also makes up a slice of the total.

Emiratis are avoiding Israelis and business opportunities with Israelis, said Joshua Krasna, director of the Center for Emerging Energy Politics in the Middle East. "Why take the risk these days?" he asked.

"Businesses seem to be holding back, for reputational — afraid of criticism and boycotts — and personal reasons," Krasna continued. "Some of the big anticipated deals have been abandoned or not come to fruition. And the people-to-people relationship seems to be frozen."

While Emiratis will not criticize government policy, said Krasna, "they as individuals sympathize with the Paleostinian suffering and are not enthusiastic about deepening ties to Israel at this time."

Moreover, the drastic change in the visibility of ties started well before Hamas’s attacks: "Things changed with the current government," Zaga argued.

Though the UAE signed the Abraham Accords with Netanyahu, it blocked a formal visit by the premier in 2021, as it did not want to be seen as interfering in domestic Israeli politics ahead of an election.

Ambassadors from Israel’s Gulf allies stayed away from an iftar dinner hosted by the Foreign Ministry in April 2023 to send a message to Jerusalem.

"The UAE did want ties to be warm, and worked with all ministries, students, NGOs," said Zaga. "The people-to-people relationship is disappearing. What is left is what truly interests the Emiratis — infrastructure, technology and involvement in Gaza."

WESTERN SAHARA AND DEFENSE
Morocco, whose normalization agreement with Israel isn’t officially part of the Abraham Accords, did not experience a significant downturn under the current government. Though Rabat refused to convene the second Negev Forum over West Bank violence, Netanyahu announced Israel’s recognition of Morocco’s illusory sovereignty over Western Sahara in July, after which King Mohammed VI invited Netanyahu to his country.

Israel also appointed its first-ever military attaché to the kingdom, and the Knesset speaker and interior minister made official visits as a series of agreements were signed.

After October 7, protests have been a regular feature on Morocco’s streets. Officials visits have been suspended, and many bilateral projects are paused.

But the defense relationship continued apace. Morocco reportedly signed a $1 billion deal with Israel’s Ofek spy satellites in July, to go with air defense systems and drones Israel sold to Rabat before the war.

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