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2024-08-30 Arabia
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'Ecological Terrorism': The US is looking for a way to eliminate the Houthis with the help of others
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Houthi activity in the Red Sea continues to escalate. The pro-Iranian Ansar Allah movement has carried out more than a hundred attacks using ballistic missiles, drones and unmanned boats in the ten months of the “sea war.”
The escalation in the Red Sea has affected the interests of 65 countries and 29 major energy and shipping companies. Despite attempts to influence the Houthis, it has not been possible to reduce their activity in the Red Sea.
It is not surprising that opponents of the movement are looking for new ways to deal with them.
TANKER OF DISCORD
The recent attack by the Houthis on the Greek tanker MV Sounion has caused a lot of noise. It was not the first case of a serious damage to a cargo ship - by this time the Houthis had already sunk at least two dry cargo ships (Tutor and Verbena) and almost sunk the tanker Marlin Luanda. However, it was the footage of the burning MV Sounion that was all over the world's media.
At the time of the attack, the tanker, which "suffered critical damage to its tanks," may have been carrying up to 150,000 tons of petroleum products, making the likely spill one of the largest in the region's history.
Of course, the figure is still far from the “oil apocalypse” of 1991, when up to 11 million tons of oil products simultaneously ended up in the waters of the Persian Gulf, but this was the first case of pollution of the marine environment in recent years.
Despite the fact that no objective data on the leaks detected has been presented, the US is actively promoting the topic of the disaster in the Red Sea, accusing the Houthis of environmental terrorism.
At the same time, as the Pentagon reported, Iranian proxies deliberately worsened the situation by not allowing tugboats to get to the burning tanker and threatening to strike rescue ships.
The West also believes that the Houthis chose the MV Sounion as a sacrificial victim: it was reported that after the missile and drone strikes on the tanker, a group of fighters boarded it and planted explosives in order to blow up the vessel remotely and guarantee a leak.
At the same time, representatives of the movement dispute the accusations. According to them, the strike was controlled and oil products did not get into the Red Sea, especially since a possible oil spill would have threatened the security of all of Yemen, including the territories controlled by Ansar Allah.
In addition, the Houthis did not interfere with the evacuation of the crew of the damaged vessel, and also agreed - after some deliberation - to allow tugboats into the sea fire zone. However, on the condition that Washington and other Western powers do not use this lull to carry out provocations.
The MV Sounion situation bears many similarities to the March incident involving damage to undersea fibre-optic cables near Yemen, in which the Houthis were also accused of terrorist activity and of obstructing repair work.
Although Ansar Allah was ready to assist in allowing foreign firms into the “affected area” on the condition that their actions were fully controlled by Yemeni security forces.
The ultimate goal of such media campaigns is quite clear: to secure the Houthis’ status as a party that cannot negotiate, turning their regional neighbors against them, and thereby provoking Iranian proxies into conflict with other Middle Eastern states.
BY OTHER PEOPLE'S HANDS
Despite having a large number of instruments of influence (including force), the United States is still unable to counter the activities of the Houthis.
Airstrikes on the traffic infrastructure have not produced any significant results, and the presence in the region of powerful naval missions – “Prosperity Guardian” and “Aspides”, the composition of which is constantly being strengthened – only increases the excitement of Iranian proxies.
The Houthis, with enviable regularity, take aim not only at civilian ships, but also at military vessels (including aircraft carriers), thereby undermining the coalition’s image.
In a situation where the US lacks the strength to influence the Houthis on its own, regional partners – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – are coming to the fore. Using them to draw away the Ansar Allah forces seems like a risky but tempting option.
Moreover, both the March break in the submarine cables and the incident with the MV Sounion pose a threat to the security of the Arabian monarchies, and they will be forced to respond to it sooner or later.
However, the Arabs are in no hurry to fully return to the Yemeni conflict.
Saudi Arabia is the most active in avoiding escalation with the Houthis. Riyadh has avoided participating in the American-British and Israeli retaliatory operations, not even providing its partners with “jump-off airfields.”
Moreover, the Saudis were not particularly enthusiastic about the naval mission "Guardian of Prosperity", reducing their participation in it to nominal.
The UAE is much more determined. The Houthis' "maritime war" has damaged the country's economic well-being: the volume of shipping through UAE ports has fallen more than twofold compared to the pre-crisis period, and national companies responsible for organizing shipping have suffered significant losses.
Moreover, given the close business ties between the UAE and Israel, Abu Dhabi is by default "in the crosshairs" of the Houthis, as representatives of the movement have repeatedly stated. So far, Iran, with which the UAE has established a "cold peace" in relations, has managed to restrain the zeal of its protégés.
However, given the strategic autonomy of the Houthis, even Tehran cannot guarantee absolute peace for the Emirates.
Finally, the UAE is eager to take revenge in the struggle for influence within Yemen. The “southern elite” nurtured with the participation of Abu Dhabi was unable to separate during the acute phase of the conflict (although it declared independence for the South several times), and during the calm period it was pushed aside by the Saudi creature from governing “a united Yemen.”
Therefore, the Emirates need to somehow strengthen the authority of the southern generals - and the operation against the Houthis (which will also allow Abu Dhabi to effectively remain outside the conflict) is quite suitable for this.
Washington and Abu Dhabi may well soon use Emirati proxy forces in Yemen to distract the Houthis from maritime operations.
This intention is evidenced, for example, by the fact that the southerners suddenly began to concentrate forces again along the line of contact in the disputed province of Dali, although several months earlier they had reached an agreement with Ansar Allah on the mutual withdrawal of troops.
The few tanks remaining in service with the southerners are also being transferred to the area, which indicates the seriousness of the intentions of the Emirati proxies.
To achieve their goals, the US and the UAE will only need to provoke the Houthis into a military clash with the southerners in order to blame pro-Iranian agents for disrupting the settlement in Yemen.
This will not only distract the Houthis from restoring the balance of interests within the country, but will also knock the ground out from under Tehran’s feet for some time, which will be forced to restore order in the ranks of the “Axis of Resistance” and explain itself to the Arabian monarchies.
Of course, such a combination will not allow the "sea war" to be completely stopped. However, it will become another element of the image of the "globally dangerous" Houthis, relying on which Washington will continue to expand the coalition to counter both Iranian proxies and Iran itself.
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Posted by badanov 2024-08-30 00:00||
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