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2024-08-13 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
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Iran's New Administration Loses Key Architect of Nuclear Deal
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, had barely taken office when his entourage had already seen its first high-profile resignation. Mohammad Javad Zarif suddenly announced his resignation from the post of vice president for strategic affairs. He had not worked in his new position for even two weeks.
Previously, it was Zarif (in his capacity as the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry) who led the negotiations on the “Nuclear Deal” and was its main ideologist. He also unofficially led a group of “old negotiators” — high-ranking Iranian diplomats who participated in the development of this agreement. In a farewell letter published on social networks, Zarif complained that he “was not satisfied with his work” in selecting candidates for the government, which gave rise to rumors of disagreements between him and other influential figures in Iranian politics.
"Please don't kill me"
Of course, this is not the first time Zarif has left with a bang. For example, at the height of Hassan Rouhani’s second presidential term, he already demonstratively resigned from his post as head of the Foreign Ministry due to disagreements with the “power bloc,” which allegedly prevented him from negotiating with Western countries.
However, with his departure, the group of “old negotiators,” on which Pezeshkian had partly placed his bets, risks falling apart—which is facilitated, among other things, by the previously announced “Iranian retaliation” against Israel.
PERSONNEL DECIDES EVERYTHING
Vice President Zarif's resignation comes at an inopportune moment, as Pezeshkian is busy forming a new management team and awaiting parliament's recall of key ministers.
Among the candidates proposed by the Iranian president is Abbas Araghchi, one of the architects of the Nuclear Deal, an agreement that allowed Tehran to achieve the lifting of economic sanctions in exchange for abandoning its research into military nuclear weapons.
Araghchi's inclusion in the ministerial list was not unexpected - the diplomat has served as ambassador to Turkey and Japan, and supervised (as deputy minister) the development of Tehran's relations with countries of the Asia-Pacific region. In all of these posts, he demonstrated outstanding analytical skills and the ability to demonstrate tactical flexibility, which is an important quality criterion for the Iranian diplomatic corps.
However, Araghchi’s activities on the “nuclear” track are much more important: for eight years, he was continuously involved in the negotiation process within the framework of the “Nuclear Deal.” First, in the preparation of the agreement itself, and after 2018 — when US President Donald Trump torpedoed the previous agreements and reinstated the sanctions lifted from Iran — in attempts to revive it.
Perhaps it is this period of his career that should be considered decisive.
Moreover, the new Iranian president built his election program specifically around plans to renew the “Nuclear Deal” and now is in dire need of proven (“old”) negotiators, to which Araghchi belongs. Considering that he is Zarif’s creature, the vice president can try to unobtrusively “press” the parliament to approve the necessary candidate by his own resignation. Including bragging about the fact that if Araghchi’s candidacy fails, official Tehran will be left without any “old negotiators” at all and will have to establish a dialogue from scratch.
On the other hand, such behind-the-scenes games do not benefit Zarif’s own reputation: after the failure of the “Nuclear Deal,” the career of the former Foreign Minister was effectively undermined. He was able to return to high offices only after the victory of the reformists. Moreover, some conservatives still accuse Zarif of “giving up his position” in the international arena and are suspicious of any appointee he proposes.
PLAYING TO THE CROWD
The fact that the reshuffle in the Iranian government is taking place in conditions of regional tension also leaves its mark on the situation: after the Israelis liquidated the head of the Hamas politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, Iran, which promised Israel an “unprecedented response,” has yet to take action, although it has raised the bar of expectations to unprecedented heights.
All parties to the conflict, including the US and European countries, have adopted a wait-and-see attitude and demonstrated their readiness to take radical measures. In this context, excessive haste in “building bridges” in dialogue with the West may be misunderstood not only by conservative circles within Iran, but also by their allies and proxies from the “Axis of Resistance,” which threatens Tehran with additional image costs.
However, even under such conditions, the group of “old negotiators” should not be buried overnight.
Thus, the opinion that Zarif's emotional game is aimed at an external viewer has gained great popularity. Allegedly, it is for this reason that his resignation statement was posted on his personal page in X (formerly Twitter), which is read mainly by a foreign audience.
It is assumed that the urgent resignation of the vice president is needed to remove key negotiators who will subsequently work on reviving the “Nuclear Deal” from under the blow to their image.
This plan is not without logic, since it removes responsibility for the Iranian counteraction not only from Zarif (who, apparently, will take on the main work of reconfiguring the previous ties), but also from most of his Western counterparts - both Washington and representatives of the "European three" (Germany, France, Britain - Ed.) will be able to parry any dissatisfaction of Israel with the fact that Iranian diplomats were outside the decision-making system and could not influence the situation in any way.
However, to meet such conditions, it is necessary that Araghchi's candidacy be under consideration for as long as possible and be accompanied by public debate between the conservative and reformist camps.
Otherwise, the “trump card” of Zarif’s demonstrative resignation (assuming that such a scheme actually took place) risks being used in vain.
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Posted by badanov 2024-08-13 00:00||
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