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2024-08-09 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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'The Butcher of Khan Yunis': Hamas's New Leadership Reveals War Prospects
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Official representatives of the Hamas movement announced the appointment of a new head of the Politburo in place of Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed earlier in Tehran. The post was taken by Yahya Sinwar, known among Israelis by the telling nickname the Butcher of Khan Yunis.
Sinwar's appointment came as a surprise to many (including the US and Israel) - until recently, the "pragmatist" Khaled Meshal was tipped to head the movement's Politburo. Apparently, this was based on the expectation that his diplomatic and political experience would allow the situation in Gaza to be brought to a "draw" and the line of gradual settlement laid down by Haniyeh to be continued.
However, it was Sinwar who opposed Mashal's candidacy and took his place in the movement's imaginary management structure, which came as a surprise to many.
A LIVING SYMBOL OF RESISTANCE
Sinwar's political biography is replete with high-profile events, and his public image is almost entirely built on the idea of opposing Israel.
In addition to being at the origins of the "military wing" of Hamas, Sinwar's brainchild is the Majd intelligence service, which is designed to identify Israeli agents and informants in the ranks of the resistance. Sinwar played an important role in developing Operation Al-Aqsa Flood (which began the current confrontation in the Gaza Strip). It is not surprising that "super terrorist" and "7/10 ideologist" were later added to his already existing nickname, the Butcher of Khan Yunis.
Official Hamas sources emphasize that Sinwar was elected head of the Politburo unanimously, although until recently it was believed that the movement’s leadership had split into factions and did not support any of Haniyeh’s potential replacements (with the possible exception of Meshal, who is “relatively equidistant” from all camps).
What makes the situation interesting is that the political wing of the movement has de facto completely subordinated itself to the military, where from the first days the readiness to “fight to victory” and not make concessions to the Israelis prevailed.
The reshuffle in the Hamas politburo, given some of Sinwar's personal characteristics, casts doubt on the likelihood of continuing the course towards a peaceful settlement.
Quite the opposite: with the strengthening of the “military” camp, forceful methods of solving problems come to the forefront.
THE SHADOW OF THE "SHALIT DEAL"
Israel reacted to the news of Sinwar's appointment as head of the Politburo in a completely expected manner, promising to "catch and punish" him in the near future.
Although this is more of a routine reminder – threats against the new head of the Politburo were voiced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the first days of the crisis, thus preceding Israel’s Operation Iron Swords.
Sinwar's assassination does indeed have significant symbolic significance for the Israeli leadership.
Of course, the new head of the Politburo is one of the "architects" of the current crisis, and his death will raise the cabinet's ratings to incredible heights. But Netanyahu also faces the unspoken task of nullifying the negative effect of the "Shalit deal" of 2011, under which Israel exchanged a large number of Palestinian prisoners, including Sinwar.
It is especially important for the Israeli Prime Minister to put an end to the story of the “deal” of the last decade – its legacy prevents him from objectively assessing the progress of the negotiations on the exchange of prisoners. Moreover, the Israelis still hold many important figures for the Palestinian movement in custody – among them the former head of Fatah, Marwan Barghouti, whose release could strengthen the position of the Palestinian Authority, which is disadvantageous for Tel Aviv. Netanyahu does not want to repeat the previous mistakes.
On the other hand, the elimination of Sinwar, which the Israeli “hawks” are insisting on, is guaranteed to put an end to the negotiation process and will finally undermine trust in Israel not only on the part of Hamas, but also other Palestinian factions, including the quite negotiable Fatah.
WASHINGTON'S POSITION
The US is warning Israel against trying to inadvertently "push" Hamas into withdrawing from the Gaza deal discussions. And it's not even about the image losses the White House could suffer from the failure of the "peace plan" proposed by the Democrats.
Washington estimates that of the 24 Hamas battalions operating in the Gaza Strip at the start of Operation Iron Swords, only three had suffered irreparable losses. The rest remained relatively combat-ready, with at least eight units suffering virtually no losses.
These data differ significantly from the victorious reports of the Israeli General Staff, which claims that 22 Hamas battalions have been “irrevocably defeated.”
In addition, the movement can quickly increase its striking power by recruiting relatives of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes on the enclave. At the same time, there is a danger of Hamas's networks of influence "spreading" to the West Bank, where anti-Israeli sentiment has also increased, including amid reports of a possible Barghouti swap.
The White House also has good reason to fear that if diplomatic settlement fails, Hamas will focus all available resources on driving the Israelis out of the enclave. This, coupled with the growing activity of Lebanese Hezbollah, creates the risk of constant pressure on Israel's defense system, which Iran will not fail to take advantage of.
However, there are also those who remain optimistic about what is happening.
Thus, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken believes that the election of Sinwar as head of the Politburo will change little in the negotiation process, and the finalization of the Gaza deal (in one form or another) is a matter of time.
Blinken argues his position by the fact that Sinwar, being one of the most influential figures in the Hamas structure, could not help but influence the course of the negotiations on Gaza while the head of the Politburo was still alive. This is indirectly confirmed by Palestinian negotiators, who noted that not a single step of the Hamas delegation took place without Sinwar's approval.
DELAYED FINAL
It is possible that Israel will take Washington's position into account and will not take any drastic steps in the near future, especially since it is receiving quite tempting offers from Iran through third countries: renunciation of revenge for Haniyeh in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Such a scenario would hypothetically suit everyone, including Sinwar. However, the latter could clearly demand more, including a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the enclave.
In this context, Netanyahu will most likely allow the new head of the Politburo to act as freely as possible and even put the issue point-blank, dictating to Tel Aviv the terms of ending the conflict. With the sole purpose of Hamas being the first to leave the Gaza deal and thereby absolving the Israelis of responsibility for its collapse.
And only after this can one recall the previous promises to eliminate the Butcher from Khan Yunis.
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Posted by badanov 2024-08-09 00:00||
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