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2024-06-16 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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Netanyahu sets his sights on Lebanon: will a trebuchet help against modern drones
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov
[REGNUM] The Israeli Air Force is carrying out massive strikes on southern Lebanon after an escalation of fighting between the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and Lebanese Hezbollah on the border of the two countries. The activity of modern Israeli aviation is complemented by the unexpected use by ground forces of medieval catapults and trebuchets to throw incendiary mixtures. The seemingly strange medieval tactic was probably the only way IDF commanders could think of to set fire to the bush on the Lebanese side where Hezbollah fighters might be hiding. This may also indicate the beginning of preparations for an Israeli ground invasion of Southern Lebanon and the creation of a safe pre-field for the deployment of larger forces directly along the border.
The escalation began on Tuesday, June 11, when an Israeli strike killed Taleb Abdullah,
| …alternative spelling Taleb Abdallah, killed with three henchmen in Jouaiyya, 15 km from the Israeli border … |
commander of the Nasr Division, one of Hezbollah's three main formations. In response, Hezbollah launched rocket attacks into northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights.
The Iran-backed group, whose name translates to "Party of God," fired 170 rockets at Israeli positions on Wednesday. The attacks continued on Thursday.
In particular, the strikes hit six Israeli military targets, and the arsenal of weapons used was supplemented by a squadron of drones that hit three Israeli bases. The targets included the main intelligence center in northern Israel.
The current escalation between Hezbollah and Israel is the largest since October 7, 2023, when Hezbollah came out in support of Palestinian Hamas allies and now threatens to escalate into a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon.
HIKE TO THE NORTH
It is worrying that the current round of confrontation occurred immediately after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on June 5, during a visit to border villages on the Lebanese-Israeli border, said that the Israeli army was ready “for very powerful actions” in the north of the country, and the government announced an additional conscription of 50 thousand reservists into the army.
| Why worrying? Israel warned —> Israel acts. Otherwise, why bother? |
Back in April, Israel's Channel 13 reported that the IDF had completed preparations for a potential military campaign in the north. According to him, the military’s initial plan is to push back Hezbollah fighters 8-10 kilometers deep into Lebanese territory. De facto, this would be consistent with the essence of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 adopted in 2006, which ordered Hezbollah to withdraw its military to the Litani River.
It should be borne in mind that Hezbollah itself did not set out to launch an invasion of Israel, only supporting its Hamas allies with rocket attacks and strikes on IDF positions in the border area. The red line after which the Party of God will be ready to move on to full-scale operations will be the threat of the complete destruction of Hamas. However, this has not happened so far.
The limiting factor for Hezbollah’s more active involvement in the conflict is its position in Lebanon.
The “Party of God” is primarily a Lebanese political force, represented in the country’s government and parliament, and only secondarily a member of the “axis of resistance” led by Iran.
Therefore, Hezbollah will correlate any of its steps with how the Lebanese themselves will perceive it, who are by no means eager to be drawn into the conflict and, to one degree or another, share the fate of the Palestinians of Gaza who are dying under bombs. Naturally, such a scenario will have a negative impact on Hezbollah’s popularity in Lebanon.
Based on this, Hezbollah itself is inclined to act from the position of not a “spear”, but a “shield” against Israel, and if Israel itself launches an invasion of Lebanon, then here the “Party of God”, acting as a defender of Lebanon, on the contrary, can strengthen positions. Especially if, as in 2006, the group manages to emerge victorious from the confrontation. Or at least not lose.
| It’s the not losing that’s key. Kind of like getting a pension from the CIA. |
Although it should be noted that, despite the success in 2006, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was still forced to make excuses to the Lebanese who suffered from the conflict, claiming that he did not expect such harsh and cruel actions by Israel, which decided to invade.
STRONG OPPONENT
For Israel, Hezbollah will still remain the “sword of Damocles”, which does not allow its residents to be safe.
The events of October 7 have already demonstrated how vulnerable Israeli defenses are. Now Israeli leaders need to reassure their population that this time the intelligence services can anticipate any attack and the military can stop it.
This is a difficult task given Hezbollah's capabilities, and the discreditation of military and intelligence officials following the Al-Aqsa Flood has made it even more difficult.
The Lebanese Party of God has a much higher military potential than the Palestinian Hamas. And if they decide to invade, the group’s DRGs could penetrate much deeper into Israeli territory, threatening large cities, such as Haifa.
In this context, the only option for the Netanyahu regime may be a preventive invasion of Lebanon. Until a buffer zone is created in southern Lebanon, the threat of a breach of the border line and a Hezbollah invasion of Israel will be a constant risk. This risk will also prevent the return of temporarily displaced Israelis, of whom there are more than 100 thousand, to the north of the country.
The Netanyahu government is already facing criticism for what happened on the northern border.
Thus, according to Avigdor Lieberman, a former finance minister who heads the opposition party, the Israeli government was weak in the north: “The red line turned into a white flag - the war cabinet surrendered to Hezbollah and lost the north.”
AT THE PEAK OF FORM
Israel does have something to fear, as Hezbollah is now at the peak of its military form.
The Party of God was able to fully recover from the losses it suffered during the Syrian civil war. The core of the most experienced fighters who went through the Syrian campaign remained in the ranks; appropriate conclusions were drawn and the experience of Hezbollah’s participation in that conflict was generalized.
| Good job, guys! You’re now thoroughly trained in fighting low tech, semi-trained jihadis specializing in mobile mass attacks, where the most important skill, as far as I can tell, is to hold your position as a unit and not flee in terror. Fighting the IDF requires you not to be a recognizable target or at/near a target location, a very different skill. But perhaps Allah will at some point change his mind and help you survive what’s to come… |
At the same time, the group received new modern weapons from Iran, which it did not yet have during the Syrian war. In addition, as a result of the Syrian conflict, the “Party of God” was able to acquire a fleet of armored vehicles, forming mechanized units equipped with T-72, T-62 and T-55 tanks. According to some reports, Hezbollah was also able to obtain the Pantsir air defense missile system.
| Oooohhhh…. is that one of the ones that is no help whatsoever against the IAF? |
The elite of Hezbollah’s armed wing is the Al-Haj Radwan regiment, a special forces assault unit that can be classified as “commando”, numbering 2.5 thousand fighters in its ranks.
But the backbone of Hezbollah’s forces remains the light infantry, which includes about 30 thousand active fighters, distributed across three infantry divisions “Nasr”, “Badr” and “Aziz”, and up to 20 thousand trained reservists. However, in a short time, the number of armed formations of the “Party of God” and allied forces can be increased to 100 thousand people.
| Do they come pre-trained, ready to fight as a unit? Because if not, what use are they in this kind of war? |
Some Lebanese Sunni factions are already operating in the ranks of Hezbollah, for example, the Dawn Forces, which represent the military wing of the Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood (banned in the Russian Federation).
The group can also count on fighters from its allied Lebanese Shiite movement Amal, which is capable of deploying up to 15 thousand people, using them under the Hezbollah flag. And this despite the fact that about 3 thousand Amal fighters are already forming the 6th brigade of the Lebanese ground forces.
It is obvious that help for Hezbollah will also come from Syria, where numerous units operating under the auspices of the “Islamic resistance” (the military wing of Hezbollah), consisting not only of Lebanese, but also of Syrians, as well as Iraqis, are deployed, and are known as "Syrian Hezbollah".
Hezbollah uses modern methods of warfare, its fighters and commanders are trained in stealth, mobility and autonomy, and its tactics are based on a concept that NATO calls “mission command”.
Under this methodology, subordinates are given the opportunity to make independent decisions on the battlefield only based on the general intentions of the commander. This force structure allows Hezbollah to operate effectively in small groups in the face of overwhelming Israeli firepower.
After the 2006 war, Hezbollah continued to exploit the strengths of this approach as it continued to decentralize its command and reorganize itself.
In the event of hostilities, it is capable of forcing the IDF to fight in mountainous or urban areas, where movement fighters can take advantage of hidden fortified positions and operate from ambushes in small groups.
ROCKET FIST
Hezbollah’s missile potential is also impressive, including various versions of the Soviet OTR SCUD, numbering up to 50 units with a range of 300–500 kilometers. In addition, a similar class of missiles is represented by the more modern Iranian Fateh-110, capable of hitting targets at a distance of 300 kilometers. The group has an arsenal of 400 such missiles.
Hezbollah is also armed with thousands of Iranian Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2 missiles with a 600-kilogram warhead and a range of up to 200 kilometers.
Finally, the “Party of God” has more than 100 thousand MLRS missiles Fajr, Falaq, Raad, Shahin, Burqan, etc., which can be used from various non-standard launchers with high mobility and stealth. Many launchers are designed on light vehicles or are generally portable. It may take only half a minute to dismantle them and cover them after a shot.
This arsenal is complemented by more than 2 thousand drones, among which there are modern Iranian-made UAVs of the Mohajer-4/Mirsad-2 (equipped with ATGM), Shahed-129/Ayoub (with two 34-kg bombs), Samed (KAS-04), Karrar (two 125-kilogram bombs, ATGM or anti-ship missiles), Saegheh and others. Hezbollah UAVs have already successfully overcome Israeli air defenses, hitting military targets on its territory after October 7, 2023.
The “Party of God” has the real ability, if necessary, to overload Israeli air defense and hit strategically important targets throughout Israel with the most effective and heaviest missiles.
| That has, indeed, been the key threat thus far. Though at one point the claim was that Hezbollah had 150,000 rockets and missiles. Where did the last third of them go? |
In general, Hezbollah's use of more advanced weapons, including missile-equipped UAVs, kamikaze drones and a new Iranian-made ATGM known as the Almas-4, which has proven highly effective, has already caused alarm among the Israeli military.
| The IDF like getting alarmed. It helps them focus beyond the immediate needs of the moment. |
Here we can also recall the Tharallah ATGM, created specifically to overcome the active protection of Israeli Merkava tanks.
All this is superimposed on the difficult terrain, where in the event of an invasion the Israeli army will have to advance along narrow mountain roads, exposing armored vehicles to attacks from ATGMs and remote mines.
THE HISTORY OF WARS IS NOT IN FAVOR OF ISRAEL
Israel has fought Hezbollah several times since its creation in the early 1980s, mostly unsuccessfully.
| They’ve fought to mow the grass thus far, not to win definitively. Looking at the war in Gaza, that seems to have changed. |
The first success of the “Party of God” was the withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon and the defeat of the local pro-Israeli puppet government in 2000.
Since early 1999, the group has intensified attacks against the Israeli military and its proxies in occupied Lebanon. The commander of the Israeli Golani brigade and an entire platoon of Israeli paratroopers were killed in the ambushes.
One of the commanders of the puppet forces of Southern Lebanon, Akl Hashem, was blown up in his own home. Israeli territory was periodically fired upon by Hezbollah rockets, which led to American strikes on the group’s positions.
In the spring of 2000, Hezbollah became significantly more active, operations were accompanied by constant attacks on Israeli military posts in the occupied territory of Lebanon. On May 24, Israel announced that it would withdraw all troops from southern Lebanon. His entire force left Lebanon by the end of the next day, more than six weeks before the deadline.
The IDF withdrawal led to the rapid advance of Hezbollah forces and the defection of the pro-Israeli army from southern Lebanon. This was seen as a landslide victory for Hezbollah and greatly increased its popularity in the country, especially after Lebanese Muslims were able to return to liberated territories from which they had previously been expelled by pro-Israeli Christian militias.
Despite Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, Hezbollah continued to attack it from time to time under the pretext that the small area at the intersection of the Lebanon-Syria-Israel border, Shebaa Farm, remained occupied. Hezbollah claimed that the farms were Lebanese territory and thus the Israeli occupation continued.
A low-intensity conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated into full-scale war in 2006 following a cross-border kidnapping operation by Hezbollah against Israeli military personnel.
It is significant that at that time the “Party of God” deflected the blow from Hamas, against which an invading army had already been deployed. As a result of Hezbollah's actions, it was transferred to the north and began an offensive in southern Lebanon.
Many Israelis considered the war a disaster due to the high death toll and huge losses of armored vehicles. Then the brigade set was knocked out, in particular 52 Merkava tanks, most of which, however, were restored and returned to service after the conflict. The IDF's performance on the battlefield was widely criticized.
The 2006 war ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, according to which Israeli troops were forced to leave Lebanon again. A buffer zone was created between the Blue Line (border) and the Litani River along the borders of Israel, Lebanon and Syria.
Hezbollah, however, rejected such language, saying its troops would not leave. Despite this, the IDF was still forced to leave Lebanon, unable to effectively confront Hezbollah and push it out of the buffer zone.
The lessons of the Lebanese wars are well remembered in Israel, which is why many politicians point out the risks that the IDF will face if the “Third Lebanon War” breaks out. Up to forecasts about the defeat of Israeli units in Southern Lebanon.
However, on the other side of the scale lies the risk of Hezbollah invading Israel itself, which forces the country to live under constant threat. In any case, Israel now has no good solutions.
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Posted by badanov 2024-06-16 00:00||
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