Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] On the first day of summer, US President Joe Biden announced details of a plan to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The head of the White House emphasized that the document was proposed by the Israeli authorities, and they have already transferred it to the Hamas movement through representatives of Qatar.
The plan involves three stages. In the first, within six weeks, all Israeli forces must be withdrawn from the populated areas of Gaza, and 600 trucks with humanitarian aid will enter the Strip itself daily. In addition, Hamas must "release a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners."
At the second stage, after negotiations held against the backdrop of a ceasefire, no matter how long they last, it is planned to “exchange all living hostages, including male soldiers.” And if Hamas fulfills its obligations, the document states, the temporary truce will turn into a permanent ceasefire.
In the third stage, a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza will be adopted and the bodies of the dead hostages will be returned.
The proposals voiced are not new, explains IA Regnum international political scientist, RIAC expert Elena Suponina. The points that have been discussed for several months under the leadership of CIA Director William Burns together with his colleagues from Egypt, Israel and Palestine are practically repeated, the expert adds.
“What is new is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally begun to understand that his goals in the Gaza Strip, including the complete destruction of radical groups, cannot be completely achieved, as opposition representatives, former prime ministers Ehud Barak and Ehud initially said Olmert,” says Suponina.
At the same time, Biden is positioning the plan as a victory for Israel, since, in his opinion, Tel Aviv has already achieved “realistic goals” during the military operation.
“At the moment, Hamas is no longer capable of organizing another October 7th, and depriving it of such opportunities was one of Israel’s main goals in this war. Fair goals, in general,” said the American president.
The Palestinians, however, do not think so - but agreed with the plan.
“The Biden plan is generally beneficial to Hamas: the movement proposed approximately the same scheme,” international political scientist Abbas Juma told IA Regnum in a commentary.
"ISRAEL DOESN'T WANT TO STOP, BUT IT CAN BE STOPPED"
Hamas officials said the movement is "ready to work constructively with any proposal that is based on a permanent truce, complete withdrawal of troops from Gaza, reconstruction of the strip and the return of temporarily displaced persons." Hamas is also ready to “complete a serious prisoner exchange” if Israel agrees to it.
At the same time, in Israel itself, despite Netanyahu’s supposed consent, fermentation began. At first, the prime minister's aides said that the plan was creaky, but they accepted it. Then the Prime Minister actually rejected him.
“The war will not end until we achieve all our goals, including the return of all our hostages, as well as the destruction of Hamas’s military and administrative capabilities,” the prime minister said, casting doubt on Biden’s words that Israel proposed the plan.
Because of this, Biden is being called a liar.
“ Biden is already accustomed to Netanyahu’s humiliation. In early May, he warned that if the IDF entered Rafah, it would not supply weapons to the Israelis.
Three weeks later, Israeli tanks entered central and western Rafah. After this, Biden administration officials decided to define what it means to “enter Rafah,” writes the British publication The Guardian.
There are also opinions that Netanyahu may pay for what he said.
“Israel has already said it has accepted the deal. If he abandons it now, it will be a death sentence for the hostages and will cause a crisis of confidence in relations with the Americans and intermediary countries,” says Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid.
At the same time, stopping now for Israel is tantamount to defeat and shame, followed by irreversible political processes, Abbas Juma believes.
“Israel is not capable of stopping, but it can be stopped. The Americans can do this - by force, by blackmail. But all this will turn out to be meaningless if the United States does not take a number of real steps, letting Israeli politicians understand that tomorrow Washington may no longer help,” says the international political scientist.
Biden, the expert recalled, openly called on the Israelis to disobey Netanyahu.
"I need your help. “Everyone who wants peace must speak out about it now and convince your leaders to accept the deal,” the head of the White House said.
New coalition as Netanyahu's salvation
The Israeli prime minister with his ambitions has long been considered the main obstacle to peace. But by “leaders,” Biden now means not only Netanyahu, but also the far-right members of his cabinet.
“The Israeli prime minister's political career is in the hands of far-right coalition members who say they will quit if Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire,” writes The Guardian.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have already announced their readiness to leave the cabinet - in their understanding, the war should continue until Hamas is destroyed.
The possible withdrawal of ministers from the coalition is a big problem for Netanyahu.
Smotrich’s party has 7 seats in the Knesset, Ben Gvir’s has 6. In general, the government coalition has 64 seats out of 120. Yes, Yair Lapid (who has 17 seats in the Knesset) has already made it clear that he is theoretically ready to compensate for the 13 who drop out of the coalition far-right mandates. But first, it will make Netanyahu dependent on his political rival. Secondly, Lapid may change his mind.
“Netanyahu is now discussing with other Israeli politicians the possibility of creating a new coalition. However, the negotiations are not easy: many Israeli politicians have previously worked with Netanyahu, and some do not want to repeat this experience. They just don't trust him. But Netanyahu will not implement the plan alone,” Elena Suponina is convinced.
BIDEN IS NOT A DECREE
Thus, the fate of the “Biden peace plan” depends not only on American pressure, but also on the outcome of internal political negotiations in Israel. Netanyahu cannot remain without a coalition majority under any circumstances—his resignation will inevitably entail criminal prosecution. Therefore, it is possible that if negotiations with Lapid and other opposition leaders do not succeed, Netanyahu will continue the war.
And he will even try to enlist the support of pro-Israeli forces in the United States (Netanyahu is due to speak before Congress in the near future). That is, says Abbas Juma, he will hope for a favorable outcome of the elections in the United States and that he will be able to finish off the Palestinians.
Simply because he has no other choice.
“Yes, the Netanyahu government in Gaza has driven itself into a strategic impasse, and the Americans are offering at least some way out. However, it is very difficult for Netanyahu to exit through this door. This is largely due to his personal ambitions and the future of his government,” summarizes Elena Suponina.
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