|
2024-05-13 Africa North
|
|
Russia's victory, US problems. What did the presidential elections in Chad show?
|
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Viktor Vasiliev
[REGNUM] The results of the presidential elections have been announced in Chad. The winner was determined in the first round of voting, the result was predictable. The representative of the ruling Movement of Patriotic Salvation (MPS) party and the leader of the “Deby clan”, General Mahamat Deby dealt with the formalities and entered into a period of legitimate rule of the country (the presidential term in Chad is 5 years).
Continued from Page 2
The top three looks like this: Mahamat Deby, the current head of the transition period, - 61.03%, the current head of government and the main opponent of the military authorities and the Deby clan, Syukse Masra, - 18.53%, ex-head of government and leader of the systemic opposition (representing interests of the southern peoples of Chad) Albert Padaké - 16.91%.
THE MEANING OF ELECTIONS
The past elections attracted significant attention from the Western media - this is rare; usually they practically ignore the political life of African countries. We followed what was happening, of course, throughout the entire region of West and Central Africa.
There are several reasons for this.
Firstly, the issue of the power of a separate family, which has held it for more than 30 years, was being resolved, which would one way or another affect the stability of similar family-ethnocratic regimes in the region.
Secondly, Chad, being a key ally of France in the region and possessing the most trained army in the region, regularly showed examples of successful resistance to jihadism. We are talking about confronting the Boko Haram group (recognized as terrorist, its activities are prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation) in the Lake Chad basin, as well as numerous groups associated with both the traditional opposition of Debi and the ethnic groups of the Tibesti highlands (north of the country), and with new groups, formed after the armed invasion of the Western coalition in Libya and its actual collapse.
Thirdly, around the fate and future of the country, for at least the last 3 years (since the death of Marshal Idriss Deby ), geopolitical tensions have been noticeable due to the competition of major Western powers in the struggle for influence.
Fourthly, the active inclusion of Russia in this competition added particular urgency to the situation. We are talking not only about the January visit of Mahamat Deby and the emerging development of bilateral relations, but also about the direct participation of Russian civilian specialists in the country’s electoral process. In particular, Russian sociologist Maxim Shugaley was present in N'Djamena. It was also reported that shortly before the presidential election day, May 6, a group of Russian military specialists arrived in the country - there is no official confirmation of this.
THE DÉBY CLAN AND THE POWER SYSTEM IN CHAD
Even by the standards of African realities, the 30-year period in which the “Deby clan” was in power in a key country for a number of macro-regions is not only an indicative, but also in many ways a unique story. Since it was in Chad that the familial and informal (most often through marriage unions) nature of the distribution of power acquired its most acute and complete forms.
The history of political movements and leaders on the Dark Continent is not only the history of ethnic groups, but also the history of families. With any prolonged retention of power and, as a consequence, access to resources, any family instantly grows and turns into a clan (or union of families), which covers with its interests all zones and spheres of the national economy and politics.
In Chad this sometimes took absurd forms. The main struggle for power in the country takes place within one large clan, created over a long period of rule and a series of dynastic marriages by the last dictator of Black Africa, Idris Deby. It comes to the point that the armed opposition to the “Deby clan” is also represented by people from the “Deby clan”. That is, with a high degree of probability, even if the country’s leadership falls, power will still remain in the hands of the “Debi clan.”
Under the French colonial system, traditionally the emphasis was placed on the southern ethnic groups of the country, predominantly Christian - in particular, the Doba and Sara peoples. As a result, after gaining independence, they initially retained influence.
After gaining independence, people from the southern regions, primarily representatives of the Sara ethnic group, which included the first president of Chad, François Tombalbaye, who enjoyed great attention from the French authorities, retained supreme power in their hands.
The northerners, represented by the Tubu ethnic group, decided to challenge this state of affairs. Subsequently, it was they who were represented in power in the person of presidents Goukouni Oueddei and Hissene Habré, who led to a bias towards the northerners.
President Idriss Deby, who died on April 20, 2021, was a representative of the even more northern and extremely small, but militant Zaghawa ethnic group, the Bideyat subethnic group (this is the northeast of the country, the border with Libya). Despite its large number in comparison with the other 200 ethnic groups in the country, the “Debi clan” continues to firmly hold power in its hands for 30 years.
Almost the entire officer corps of the most combat-ready African army, according to many authoritative experts, consists of the Zaghawa people. In fact, less than 1% of the population keeps a country of 18 million in strict obedience.
In fact, the political and power center of gravity in Chad since its independence has constantly shifted vertically from the predominantly Christian and densely populated agricultural South to the sparsely populated Muslim pastoral North. This is the main axis, the pattern and, frankly, the tragedy of Chad's political system.
In conditions of limited resources, and Chad remains one of the poorest countries on the Dark Continent, this state of affairs cannot but cause discontent - and there have always been opponents. But the challenge is, as a rule, again posed by representatives of northern and northeastern nomadic and more warlike peoples. For example, the most irreconcilable opponent of the rule of Idriss Deby is the rebel “Front for Change and Accord” (Front pour l'Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad, FACT), at the hands of which Deby died 3 years ago.
At the same time, the rebels interrupted the last presidential campaign, launching an offensive on election day. Western publications then linked the activity of the armed opposition with the interests of the Libyan Marshal Haftar, and through him with the Russian PMC Wagner. They say that the Russians thus decided to get even with Deby for his systematic support of militants in the north of the Central African Republic.
Be that as it may, the main composition of the FACT group was represented by the Gorane people, who are also represented by Mahamat Debi on their mother’s side. When he came to power after the death of his father, he was able to establish a dialogue with his fellow tribesmen and, obviously, enlist their informal support. The fact that this time the elections were held peacefully eloquently confirms this version.
At the same time, the elections that took place actually changed little. The issue of power was resolved within the “Debi clan” much earlier.
POLITICAL TRADITIONS IN CHAD
Often, political disputes and contradictions in Chad, which constitute the struggle for power, were preferred to be resolved by armed means. And in recent decades, as already mentioned, this happened within the “Debi clan”, between relatives.
Here are the most striking examples.
Timane Erdim was one of the most famous rebels in Chad, the leader of the Chadian group “Unification of Democratic Forces” (Rassemblement des Forces pour le Changement, RFC). At the same time, he comes from the Zaghawa ethnic group and is the nephew of Idris Deby.
Erdimi left N'Djamena in 2005 and tried to overthrow his uncle twice, in 2008 and 2019. He lived in exile in Qatar for more than 10 years. From there he tried to command loyal rebel forces based in southern Libya. In August 2022, after the death of his uncle, rebel leader Timan Erdimi returned to Chad as part of the national dialogue announced by Déby Jr. And the “clan” accepted him!
Another nephew of Idris Deby is Yaya Dillo, an iconic figure in the current power struggle. As a teenager, he took part in the offensive that culminated in Idriss Déby's overthrow of President Hissène Habré following a 1990 coup.
In 2005, Dillo joined the armed rebels, forming his own alliance called the Platform for Change, Unity and Democracy (SCUD). The group has said it plans to overthrow the ruling authoritarian ruler Deby. But then Dillo laid down his arms and even became Minister of Mines and Energy in Deby's government - from September 2008 to March 2009.
From 2018 to 2020, he was Chad's Ambassador to the Economic Community of Central African States (ECOCAS, equivalent to ECOWAS). He was fired after a conflict with the first lady of Chad, Hinda Déby Itno.
In the new conditions, after the death of Deby and with the rise of his son to power, Dillo became president of the Socialist Party without Borders (PSF), planning to compete for power in the upcoming presidential elections. He is also supported by a number of influential opposition figures. And it was he, and not Syukse Masra, that many experts considered the most dangerous competitor for Mahamat Deby.
On the night of February 27-28, 2024, a shooting occurred in N'Djamena, as a result of which representatives of the security services were killed. Authorities blamed the incident on the Socialist Party Without Borders, led by Dillo. Army military equipment surrounded the party headquarters, and the assault led to the death of Dillo and a dozen of his supporters. Just a day earlier, the politician told France Presse that they were going to “physically eliminate” him.
In response to the death of Yaya Dillo, part of the opposition called for a boycott of the elections. Three candidates withdrew, including former Prime Minister Saleh Kebzabo of the National Union for Democracy and Renewal. On March 13, 2024, the authorities banned and dissolved the Socialist Party Without Borders.
Yahya Dillo's body was handed over to one of his relatives, Timan Erdimi.
OPPOSITION STRATEGY
The background above was necessary to understand the situation in the May 6 elections. The main opponents were Mahamat Deby as the leader of the “Deby clan” and the successor to the course that his father implemented, and Syuxe Masra, on whom the United States had long relied. Masra expressed the interests of the urban opposition-minded youth of the capital.
The opposition's chances were initially slim. Masra, a Harvard- and Oxford-educated economist, was and remains the leader of the Party of Change (Les Transformateurs). He was also one of the leaders of the opposition coalition "Wakit Tama", known for its violent protests against the rule of the "Deby clan".
The young opposition leader had to flee the country to the United States after the army opened fire on hundreds of protesters in N'Djamena on October 20, 2022. The reason for the mass protests was Mahamat Deby's announcement of his intention to run for office rather than hand over power to a civilian leader. About 50 people died that day.
However, Masra returned to Chad in December 2023 after peace talks with Déby's government organized by the Economic Community of Central African States. Then, on January 1, 2024, he was appointed prime minister, which caused utter bewilderment and criticism from many opposition groups.
Among the opposition, this was considered a “dirty agreement.” Indeed, there were probably agreements between Debi and Xuxe, but at some point Masra clearly believed that he could win. During the presidential campaign, he made full use of his main resource - social networks and the support of the world's Western media. The campaign was extensive and loud, that is, there was obviously order with the sponsors.
From a political technology point of view, Masra’s campaign was built on constant provocations, a stream of endless, although not always justified, accusations against the current authorities. At the same time, Masra declared from the first day of the campaign that he would confidently win in the first round, citing “sociological data.” In reality, this is absolutely not the case.
Surely his goal was to provoke mass protests on the day the election results were announced and, at a minimum, with the support of Western countries, achieve their non-recognition. The maximum task is to demand a second round of elections and win there.
But there was also obvious success in Masr’s company: an attempt by the headquarters of the “Party of Change” to attract... Elon Musk. Masra, on X, the former Twitter, a week before voting day, asked Musk to help hold fair elections. He asked Starlink, which has a presence in Central Africa, to provide Internet access via satellite on election day.
The fact is that the former leader of Chad, Idriss Deby, has repeatedly limited the operation of the Internet and social networks in the country in the event of the slightest threat to his own power. Moreover, the threat could come from both the civil opposition and from rebels or jihadists. If Musk had given the go-ahead, such a maneuver would have become unavailable to the current authorities. But the billionaire did not cooperate.
RESULTS AND CONSEQUENCES
The elections were held peacefully, this was noted by all observers and experts. To achieve high results, the authorities used not only traditional tools - the work of the special services and the administrative apparatus, but also got creative.
Deby did not wait for the statutory date for announcing the election results, May 21, and on the evening of May 9, the local election commission, represented by the National Election Management Agency (Agence Nationale de Gestion des elections), held a ceremony to announce the preliminary results of the presidential election. Previously, army units were introduced into the capital and deployed at the main intersections of N'Djamena.
This came as a complete surprise to the opposition.
“I have thousands of proofs of our victory. You have them too, because you yourself documented the truth at the ballot box, because you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free,” Syuxe Masra addressed his supporters an hour before the announcement of the preliminary results.
Masra went on to say that Deby, whom the army proclaimed as head of the transition three years ago, would soon declare victory and “steal victory from the people.” Masra called on Chadians to “peacefully mobilize to prove our victory.”
But all this looked, to put it mildly, unconvincing. Significant protests in Chad should not be expected. Masra himself, at a minimum, loses the post of prime minister, and may soon become involved in a criminal case.
Commenting on the results of the elections in Chad, EU officials expressed regret over the exclusion of 3,000 observers from the non-governmental sector, which, in their opinion, “damages the transparency” of the elections. And the electoral commission appointed by Déby "blocked its contribution to the transparency of the electoral process, financed by European funds in the amount of 3.8 million euros", the EU said.
Chad, for its part, said that more than 2,500 national and international observers from 120 groups were accredited to observe the elections. Applications from another 60 groups, including Western-funded NGOs, were rejected for failing to comply with the country's laws.
RUSSIA WON, THE US LOST
Yes, we can say that the past elections became a formality from the point of view of the internal political situation in the country and in the region as a whole. But the elections were important for external players, and the “Deby clan” took risks, given the opposition from the United States. However, the clan overcame the risks. Including thanks to the fact that he has secured the support of Moscow, which automatically means full support in the region - from the Central African Republic and the Alliance of Sahel States.
The only problematic area in the region is Sudan.
As a result of the current elections, Moscow can count on expanding its presence in Chad. The American bet did not work.
Other additional advantages are the security of the northern borders of the Central African Republic, an additional corridor in case of a blockade of the Alliance of Sahel States, and the building of a pro-Russian belt in the Sahel. In the case of Chad, this is quite consistent with the continued French presence in the region.
|
Posted by badanov 2024-05-13 00:00||
||
Front Page|| [11139 views ]
Top
|
|
Posted by Huputle+Cherelet4131 2024-05-13 09:20||
2024-05-13 09:20||
Front Page
Top
|
|
Posted by Grom the reflective 2024-05-13 09:51||
2024-05-13 09:51||
Front Page
Top
|
|
10:39 trailing wife
10:32 Procopius2k
10:20 MikeKozlowski
10:20 swksvolFF
09:59 Gleng Whaick2262
09:53 SteveS
09:45 Mercutio
09:44 Glenmore
09:44 trailing wife
09:43 Beavis
09:38 Mercutio
09:34 Glenmore
09:22 SteveS
09:04 SteveS
08:56 Gravilet Snanter4154
08:51 SteveS
08:50 ed in texas
08:47 ed in texas
08:44 ed in texas
08:34 NN2N1
08:25 DarthVader
08:14 Super Hose
08:11 Super Hose
08:09 technochitlin
|
