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2024-05-08 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Don't Believe the Washington War Machine: Putin Is Not Going to Invade Another NATO Ally
[Newsweek] The primary reason for continuing to flow billions of dollars in cash and weaponry to Ukraine for what is clearly becoming another Afghanistan, is that if we don't, Putin will march through Europe, invading a NATO country such as Poland or the Baltics. In this case, the U.S. would have to deploy armed forces to fight off the Russians to defend the Europeans. These are the talking points that the Washington Establishment politicians and their fellow commentariat members in the media have been using to convince the American people to continue parting with their hard-earned money. In fact, even Speaker Mike Johnson, who as a rank-and-file Right-wing Congressman opposed the funding of Ukraine's war effort, recently signed off on another massive foreign aid package, $95 billion worth, the bulk of which is designated for Kyiv.

"I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed," said Johnson, justifying the spending of another $61 billion on a what serious analysts assess as a unwinnable war. "I think he might go to the Baltics next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies," asserted Johnson.

But is it true?

Evidence indicates that this justification for depleting U.S. treasury and weapons arsenal represents a lack of understanding of Putin's thinking and Russia's security strategy—and the incompetence of our national security apparatus. At worst, it is a lie fed to the American people for some other reason.

Here's why Putin is highly unlikely to invade a NATO nation:
Posted by Besoeker 2024-05-08 03:52|| || Front Page|| [11167 views ]  Top

#1 ....lack of understanding of Putin's thinking and Russia's security strategy—and the incompetence of our national security apparatus. At worst, it is a lie fed to the American people for some other reason.

Lies, incompetence, and deception are beltway hallmarks. Other than France sending in a contingent of Legion, what is everyone else in Europe doing ?
Posted by Besoeker 2024-05-08 04:11||   2024-05-08 04:11|| Front Page Top

#2 As a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer and one of top three analysts on Russian Doctrine & Strategy who worked with the CIA's National Clandestine Service, I had access to the most sensitive intelligence—including Top Secret intelligence, with code word sub-compartments and red stripes indicating for President's Eyes Only.

Too bad you didn't supplement all the above sh*t with a course on Russian history, missy. Ivan the Terrible didn't try (and fail) to take the Baltics on a whim. Neither did Piotr I who, eventually, did. Access to Baltic sea is a matter of life & death for Russia.

The other side of the issue that USA can't do nothing about it - unless it's willing to go nuclear = suicide.
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-05-08 04:28||   2024-05-08 04:28|| Front Page Top

#3 Kaliningrad wasn't a Peter the Great acquisition.

The other side of the issue that USA can't do nothing about it - unless it's willing to go nuclear = suicide.

But we were for decades. That was fundamentally NATO was based upon.
Posted by Procopius2k 2024-05-08 07:12||   2024-05-08 07:12|| Front Page Top

#4 ^Not for "countries" like Estonia.
Face it P2K, the current conflict is matter of life and death to Russia but matter of face to USA.
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-05-08 07:17||   2024-05-08 07:17|| Front Page Top

#5 Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania and Croatia all had their fill of being 'befriended' by Russia (both Soviet and 'Free') and therefor joined NATO.

Finland and Sweden, after seeing how the current Russian state treats their neighbors property, decided to join too.

That's just it, Grom. It's always someone else's fault. When they don't get their own way with someone, everyone is a (nuclear) target.
Posted by Mullah Richard 2024-05-08 07:20||   2024-05-08 07:20|| Front Page Top

#6 Yea, so? Compare USA at founding with USA today.
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-05-08 07:29||   2024-05-08 07:29|| Front Page Top

#7 In fact, I just had an idea. Could be that USG* prolongs the current conflict in Ukraine to make Americans sick of Eastern Europe. So there's no public demand to protect the Baltics when the time comes?

*There gotta be some grown up & half-way intelligent people making decisions somewhere in USG.
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-05-08 07:34||   2024-05-08 07:34|| Front Page Top

#8 *There gotta be some grown up & half-way intelligent people making decisions somewhere in USG.

Surely you jest...
Posted by M. Murcek 2024-05-08 07:37||   2024-05-08 07:37|| Front Page Top

#9 ^Maybe, a little.
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-05-08 07:45||   2024-05-08 07:45|| Front Page Top

#10 Just remember, Grom. Around 15% of Israelis are 'Russian Speakers' and consider themselves as Russians.

That's only 4% less than in Ukraine (19%).

With the Russians operating right next door, could a new Lebensraum be in the planning?
Posted by Mullah Richard 2024-05-08 08:13||   2024-05-08 08:13|| Front Page Top

#11 ^I definitely hope on retaking Sinai at some stage, as well as ethnically cleansing Gaza, Judea, and Samaria.
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2024-05-08 11:03||   2024-05-08 11:03|| Front Page Top

#12 [insert Deadpool surprise expression here]
Posted by Procopius2k 2024-05-08 11:21||   2024-05-08 11:21|| Front Page Top

#13 All my life I've been hearing that the Russians are coming and they haven't made it yet.

Historically, Russians have only invaded Western Europe is response to Western European nations invading Russia.

Putin is well aware that Russia's birth rate is perilously low. It doesn't make since that he wants to lose his boys in needless wars. He thinks he needs Ukraine because he's afraid of what NATO will do there.

I believe the other theory which is the war in Ukraine is a gravy train for defense contractors and corrupt Western politicians. It's all about money and power. It's no good at all for the little people who have to pay and die no matter which flag is draped over their coffin. I mean, how believable is it when a guy like Joe Biden says he's fighting for democracy?
Posted by Abu Uluque 2024-05-08 13:01||   2024-05-08 13:01|| Front Page Top

#14 ...On the other hand, even the Japanese admitted that attacking the Allies would not work, that they would 'run wild' for six months and then it would be downhill.

And yet, we still have memorial services at Pearl Harbor and Hiroshima.

Mike
Posted by MikeKozlowski 2024-05-08 13:33||   2024-05-08 13:33|| Front Page Top

#15 When Georgia acted up in 2008, Russia gave all the land back once they settled down (minus russia majority S.Ossetia).

I recall one of the high level Duma guys mockingly asked, why would russia want to rule East Europe. I think there was a joke about emasculated males. Dont know what else was lost in translation.
Posted by mossomo 2024-05-08 13:46||   2024-05-08 13:46|| Front Page Top

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