Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Hasanov
| More on this story from yesterday. The odds are high his legacy will not last beyond his lifetime, if that long. |
[REGNUM] There have been many crises during Erdogan's administration. They tried to overthrow him twice. Once he lost in the city of which he was mayor. Nevertheless, the fourth and, probably, one of the most unpleasant blows could not be avoided.
The first time they tried to throw Erdogan over the Maidan was in 2013 due to the cutting down of trees in Gezi Park. The second time was in 2016 through a military coup. Everyone remembers his phrase: “Whoever controls Istanbul controls Turkey,” but in 2019 Erdogan lost in Istanbul - opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu was not stopped even by the second round, where he gained even more votes. However, having lost Istanbul in 2023, Erdogan still managed to win the presidential election.
On March 31, for the first time since 2002, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party lost regional elections. The opposition Republican People's Party not only received more votes throughout the country - 37% versus 35% for the AKP, but also won in key cities - Istanbul (accounting for a third of the country's GDP), Ankara (the capital), Izmir (the industrial center), Bursa (former capital of the Ottoman Empire) and Antalya (resort center).
| They beat the margin of cheating in so many cities? Wow. |
The defeat of Erdogan's party, on the one hand, is surprising.
After all, about a year ago, in the parliamentary elections, the government “People's Alliance”, the backbone of which is the AKP-MHP alliance, won a landslide victory, receiving 336 seats out of 600 mandates. Erdogan himself, albeit in the second round, defeated the opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu .
Why is it that, a year later, the results of the party in power are so different, and why is the opposition gaining the upper hand?
There are two explanations here.
The first factor is subjective. As we remember, last year the power-hungry Kılıçdaroğlu prevented the popular mayor of Istanbul Imamoglu from running as the main opposition candidate in the presidential elections. He also interfered with the no less popular mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas .
Each of the two candidates was toxic in their own way. Legal proceedings began against Imamoglu for insulting the Central Election Commission; Yavaş is a nationalist. Nevertheless, due to the absence of a bright candidate, Erdogan easily beat the opposition.
The same personal factor affected the results of the parliamentary elections.
Kılıçdaroğlu, as the head of the CHP party and the opposition National Alliance coalition, dragged his own people to the bottom in parliament.
In addition, the reputation of the opposition was affected by scandals. Three days before the elections, due to discrediting photos and videos on social networks, the chairman of the Fatherland Party, Muharrem Ince, withdrew his candidacy . In addition, a scandal broke out in the National Alliance due to the fact that the head of the Good Party, Meral Akşener, refused to support Kılıçdaroğlu, considering the candidacies of Imamoglu and Yavaş more successful.
On the other hand, the parallel holding of presidential elections helped Erdogan get additional votes for his coalition.
The objective factor in the defeat of the AKP is the economy.
Immediately after his victory last year, Erdogan began to move closer to the West and implement the IMF's recommendations to raise the key rate. For the first time since 2021, inflation in Turkey has slowed, but remains at a very high level of 85%. Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati stated that the peak of inflation has passed and the country is moving downward. GDP also looks decent, growing by 4.5% in 2023. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level (9.4%) over the past 10 years.
Yet, despite relative progress, the economic crisis dealt a serious blow to the well-being of citizens.
Everything is becoming more expensive: food, cars and apartments. Many Turks go abroad not because there is no work, but because they can earn much more abroad.
If the economy is the main problem, then a number of other minor issues could also play against the authorities. The fate of almost 5 million refugees, mainly from Syria, has not been decided. Migrants dump and create social conflicts. Neutral voters may also be annoyed by the strengthening of the vertical power structure, the arrests of opposition politicians and journalists, as well as the 20-year tenure of the same person in power.
If last year's elections, in which Erdogan barely retained his post in the second round, and the municipal elections of 2019, when he lost Istanbul, were a wake-up call, then yesterday's vote is a ringing alarm bell.
This time the bell is ringing for both Erdogan and his party.
There is still a lot of time until 2028. But if nothing changes, the president's heir could miserably lose the next presidential election, and the AKP-led alliance could lose parliament. Inspired by the victory, the opposition already wants early presidential elections, but presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum rejected such an idea.
Erdogan will not participate in the next elections. He has already announced that the current elections will be his last.
However, as a leader who built not only a new system, but also a new country, he must take care to preserve his legacy. After admitting defeat, Erdogan promised to “objectively and self-critically” analyze the message conveyed by citizens who cast ballots in the ballot boxes. The president committed himself and his administration to “work tirelessly” to improve the welfare and safety of the population and rebuild the earthquake-damaged regions. Presidential aide Uchum made it clear that the authorities will spend the next four years implementing reforms.
Erdogan has not yet decided on a successor.
| How can he? The minute he makes his choice known, even privately, that man will start plotting against him, or he will fear that the man plots. It’s the Byzantine and the Ottoman way, |
They call different names. Some talk about the experienced Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan , others about the successful businessman and UAV manufacturer Seljuk Bayraktar . The role of the individual will be of fundamental importance. But charisma alone won't get you far.
In 2028, Turks will judge the AKP candidate and the party itself by deeds. Time will tell whether the Turkish authorities will cope with the economy and migrants.
In principle, municipal elections should not affect foreign policy.
In 2019, Republicans became mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, but international policy was strictly subject to the will of the president. Erdogan carried out Operation Peace Spring in Syria, fought against Assad’s troops in Idlib in 2020, and at the same time helped the al-Sarraj government in Libya fight off General Haftar. At the same time, as we remember, against the backdrop of the peak of the economic crisis, aggravated by the earthquake, Erdogan softened towards the EU and the United States and approved Sweden’s membership in NATO.
To further improve the investment climate, Erdogan will have to continue to take measures to improve relations with the West. At the same time, he will take active steps to diversify trade and financial ties in favor of the east.
It is not for nothing that Turkey and the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf recently began negotiations on a free trade zone. Russia remains a key and energy partner for Turkey, so rapprochement with the West will not come at the expense of joint projects with Moscow, even if the risk of tertiary sanctions becomes real.
The ideal geopolitical scenario for Erdogan is normal relations with both Russia and the West. To skillfully play on both boards, Turkey needs to reduce the degree of confrontation between Moscow and Washington.
Therefore, in the coming years, Erdogan will continue efforts to resolve or at least freeze the conflict in Ukraine. A possible change of administration in the White House this fall could become a “tailwind” for him.
With more than 90% of ballot boxes counted, incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, was leading by a wide margin in The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
 ...just another cheapjack Moslem dictatorship, brought to you by the Moslem Brüderbund...
’s largest city and economic hub, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency. Mansur Yavas, the mayor of the capital, Ankara, retained his seat with a stunning 25-point difference over his challenger, the results indicated.
In all, the CHP won the municipalities of 36 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, according to Anadolu, making inroads into many strongholds of Erdogan’s party. It gained 37% of the votes nationwide, compared to 36% for the president’s party, marking the CHP’s greatest electoral victory since Erdogan came to power two decades ago.
Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank, said "the surprising outcome" was due to voters wanting to punish the ruling party over the "depth of an economic malaise." Skyrocketing inflation has left many Ottoman Turkish households struggling to afford basic goods.
AKP supporters opted to stay away from the ballot stations or voted for other parties, Ulgen said.
"Turnout was relatively low compared to past elections," he said. "There were cross-party shifts in the vote, which did not happen in the nationals elections because of stronger ideological attachments. This time around the economy prevailed over identity."
Some 61 million people, including more than a million first-time voters, were eligible to cast ballots for all metropolitan municipalities, town and district mayorships as well as neighborhood administrations.
Turnout was around 76%, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency, compared to 87% last year.
Some 594,000 security personnel were on duty across the country to ensure the vote goes smoothly. Nevertheless, one person was killed and 11 others hurt in the city of Diyarbakir where a dispute over the election of a neighborhood administrator turned violent mostly peaceful, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported. At least six people were also injured in fighting that erupted in the nearby province of Sanliurfa.
Analysts said a strong showing for Erdogan’s party would have hardened his resolve to usher in a new constitution — one that would reflect his conservative values and allow him to rule beyond 2028 when his current term ends.
Erdogan, who has presided over Turkey for more than two decades — as prime minister since 2003 and president since 2014 — has been advocating for a new constitution that would put family values at the forefront.
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