Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov
 [REGNUM] On Saturday evening, at his weekly press conference, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans for an offensive on Rafah, the southernmost area of the Gaza Strip, which remained the last refuge for 1.5 million Palestinians. This is how Netanyahu responded to international criticism. Israel is ready to move on to an even more bloody stage of the confrontation, ignoring the calls of not only the international community, but also its closest allies.
ISRAEL REJECTS COMPROMISE
Netanyahu said those who opposed the Rafah offensive were effectively calling for his country to "lose the war" against Hamas. The head of the cabinet also indicated that troops would enter Rafah as part of the “Israeli hunt” for Hamas leaders, regardless of whether an agreement is reached on the release of the hostages or not.
“Even if we achieve this, we will enter Rafah,” he said.
Netanyahu also said that although he sent a delegation to ceasefire talks in Cairo last week at the request of US President Joe Biden, he saw no point in sending it again.
Thus, the diplomatic mediation efforts of Egypt, Qatar and the United States again did not lead to any results.
 Previously, Netanyahu quickly rejected the last of the already agreed upon draft ceasefire in Gaza, drawn up with great effort by CIA Director William Burns, Mossad chief David Barney and their Egyptian and Qatari counterparts at a meeting in Paris on February 1, and also sharply criticized the official Hamas response to it document.
Last Sunday, Qatari officials acknowledged that indirect talks in Cairo between Israel and Hamas, which resumed last week through the mediation of Egypt, Qatar and the United States, had also reached an impasse.
Earlier, CIA Director Burns arrived in Cairo to negotiate a hostage release agreement that would include a temporary ceasefire and a better plan for delivering aid to Gaza. Barney, director of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, also headed to the Egyptian capital.
The CIA chief's trip to Cairo coincided with the Biden administration's growing frustration with Israel's approach to the war against Hamas, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken's fifth trip to the Middle East a week earlier also failed to produce any progress in Tel Aviv's position.
USA HELD HOSTAGE BY ISRAEL
The United States, Israel's most important ally, continues to provide critical military support and diplomatic cover for Israeli military operations.
In particular, Washington has already announced that it will block Algeria’s initiative in the UN Security Council, calling for a stop to hostilities in Gaza. However, it can be said that Washington has found itself virtually hostage to Tel Aviv and is forced to continue supporting it, despite its rejection of what the Netanyahu regime is doing in Gaza.
Refusal to support Israel would mean the loss of a political future for any American politician.
| If “Washington” is so opposed to the general opinion of the voters that it feels constrained to act against its preferences, perhaps “Washington” should get out of the politics biz. |
Although Israel has essentially found itself highly dependent on American military and financial support in this conflict, the leverage that the United States can or is willing to exert over the Israeli government is close to zero.
| America is not the only country willing to sell Israel military supplies, Mr. Semenov. |
Netanyahu has long been accustomed to openly challenging US presidents, especially Democratic ones, and is aware that the American political system does not allow any negative consequences for Israel.
| That’s certainly one perspective. |
However, relations between Joe Biden and Netanyahu have reached their lowest point due to the colossal and growing death toll in the Gaza Strip,
| ...oh no, my dear — President Biden has been sure he knew better than the Israelis how to run their country since he was a brand new senator and Golda Meir had just won the Yom Kippur War... |
which Washington can no longer turn a blind eye to and is making efforts to persuade the Israeli leadership to de-escalate.
| The fact that Hamas has promised that a hudna will lead to as many repeats of October 7th as necessary for Hamas to conquer Israel from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea is of no interest to “Washington” as currently constituted |
The leaders of the two countries, Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Biden, as American analysts note, also have opposing domestic political interests: Netanyahu knows that “the day” after the end of this protracted war he will be removed from office or perhaps even end up in prison;
| Bibi knows no such thing. There are those who would like to help make that happen, but they are the same people who have been protesting to drive him from office since 2015 and earlier. |
Biden knows that the longer this war drags on and spreads, the more it will weigh against him in the November election.
This also applies to the White House’s concerns about a renewed confrontation with Iran, which Washington is trying in every possible way to avoid.
In addition, according to sources in the American publication The Washington Post, the US president, a “ staunch supporter of Israel ”
| ...make that “supporter” and I can go along with the claim... |
who has known Netanyahu for more than 40 years, has so far been reluctant to make public his personal disappointments with his activities. But he, too, is gradually beginning to lean toward public criticism as Netanyahu continues to “infuriate” Biden officials with “public humiliations” and rapid rejection of basic US demands.
RISK OF CLASH WITH IRAN
In this context, the United States opposes all three trajectories that the Netanyahu government is considering as possible steps: a prolonged war in the Gaza Strip, an escalation in the West Bank, and a large-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah.
 The latter trajectory is of particular concern to the White House.
The point may be that if the Americans manage to influence the Israelis to abandon a further campaign to destroy Gaza and its inhabitants, then there is a risk that Tel Aviv, immediately after curtailing the operation in the south, will begin a military campaign against Hezbollah. in the north.
For Netanyahu, this will be a solution because it will prolong his political future. At the same time, the consequences of such a military operation could significantly exceed all the losses and costs that Israel suffered in Gaza, and even lead to a major war in the Middle East with the participation of the United States and Iran, something that Washington is trying to avoid above all.
Another blow to American initiatives was Israel’s official refusal to talk about declaring a Palestinian state, the creation of which has also been called for by Western capitals, including Washington and London, as a condition for ending the bloodshed.
Last Sunday, Netanyahu decisively rejected Washington's post-war proposal, which could have included the creation of an independent Palestinian state in exchange for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The Israeli cabinet adopted a declaration on Sunday saying Israel " categorically rejects international decrees on a permanent agreement with the Palestinians" and "will continue to oppose unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state."
END OF CAREER
Thus, Netanyahu is not looking for an agreement that could end the war. He is determined to continue the war as the only means of ensuring his political survival.
At the same time, the Israeli prime minister is also leading a domestic political campaign against those forces in Israeli society who want to achieve a quick agreement on the release of hostages or a more comprehensive peace plan, as proposed by the American administration.
According to all public opinion polls, Netanyahu currently has one of the lowest ratings of any Israeli politician ever in power.
The events of October 7, for which most Israelis tend to blame Netanyahu personally, leave him with nothing but his most loyal base of supporters, that is, about 25% of the Israeli electorate, consisting mainly of religious radicals and settlers with extremist views.
Therefore, if there were no special conditions and a state of emergency, Netanyahu’s political life would already be over.
It is kept afloat by a 64-member ruling coalition consisting of “ the most extreme right-wing fanatics, messianic settlers and fringe figures,” as they are characterized in the opposition Israeli expert community.
| The opposition Israeli expert community being the same kinds of people as characterize American PTA members as far right, white supremacist terrorists. |
The top of this pyramid of power is the so-called war cabinet, which makes all decisions about plans for a military campaign.
Let us recall that the so-called wartime cabinet consists of Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant and the leader of the Ha-Mahane Ha-Mamlakhti faction (former Chief of the IDF General Staff) Benny Gantz.
| O.M.G.!!! He has a retired general in his war cabinet!! |
There are also two observers in the cabinet, Gadi Eizenkot and Ron Dermer.
In the event of a cessation of hostilities and the dissolution of the military cabinet, Netanyahu faces not only exclusion from any future elections, but also the very real possibility of a guilty verdict in his criminal trial, which consists of several cases.
| Trials of the same hatefulness and lack of legal rigour as the trials against President Trump going on just now, |
Added to this will be investigations into his role in the events of October 7, and even, probably, unacceptable actions to exterminate the civilian population in Gaza.
THE RATE OF THE HOUTHIS
Israel's plans to launch an offensive in Rafah are not only drawing harsh criticism from its neighbors such as Egypt, but could also have serious consequences for the region.
| Egypt is criticizing, but they’ve also dug in a space for a walled refugee camp to hold those fleeing Rafah while Israel hunts there for jihadis. Rhetoric and actions frequently mismatch when Egypt is involved. |
It cannot be ruled out that the new Israeli operation will provoke the Iran-linked “Axis of Resistance” to resume active actions not only against Israel, but also against the United States.
| They’re already actively acting against Israel. That they might act actively against America depends on the choices the Biden administration makes. |
At the moment, there is a certain de-escalation between pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq and American forces in these same countries.
| That’s because they don’t want America to go after them seriously. |
It occurred after the US Air Force launched strikes on the bases of pro-Iranian groups, which, however, actually did not suffer losses, since they were, in fact, warned in advance by the Americans themselves.
| Yeaaah... that was suggestive. |
In response, pro-Iranian formations reduced their activity, since Tehran itself, like Washington, is not interested in a new round of confrontation.
However, the current de-escalation may be disrupted by Israeli actions in Rafah, which will force pro-Iranian factions to respond to new massacres of civilians in Gaza.
It is obvious that the main targets of such attacks in this case will not be the Israelis, but the American military.
A strike on Israel by Hezbollah and, possibly, pro-Iranian groups from Syria will only become a reality if Hamas in Gaza is on the verge of complete destruction.
Despite the fact that in each of his statements Netanyahu names an increasing number of destroyed Hamas battalions, many facts indicate that this Palestinian resistance group retains its combat potential and is far from the critical situation that the Israeli leadership attributes to it.
In the meantime, the main role of the confrontation with Israel’s allies in the Middle East has been assumed by the Houthis from the Ansar Allah movement, who, despite the ongoing US strikes on military targets in Yemen, retain their military capabilities and demonstrate new weapons, such as underwater drones. kamikaze.
In addition, Houthi attacks are becoming increasingly destructive.
In particular, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saria said that the group attacked the Rubymar ship in the Gulf of Aden, and now it is in danger of sinking. Earlier, the Associated Press, citing the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office (UKMTO), reported that the Houthis fired at a Belize-flagged ship sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, as a result of which the crew was forced to abandon the ship.
In this context, it is important to clarify that the Houthis are a completely independent actor in the Middle East, and their contacts with Iran are of a “notifying” and not “permissive” nature.
| Prove it, Mr. Semenov. From where I sit, the Houthis look like a wholly owned subsidiary of Mad Mullahs, Incorporated. |
That is, Ansar Allah informs Tehran about its operations, but does not ask its permission. Washington is also aware of this. Therefore, the attacks of the Houthis, unlike the actions of, for example, the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, cannot lead to a clash between the United States and Iran.
| It won’t anyway. Because it is the job of the catspaws to act upon Iranian commands, not to make demands of their own. |
|
