Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Strelnikov
[RIA] The election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States in 2016 was remembered for the genuine jubilation of a certain part of the Russian establishment and the popping of champagne corks. Many respected people seriously believed that now relations with the United States would return to the time of bouquets and candy, friendly pats on the back, safe studies for their offspring at Yale and other attributes of the “well-fed noughties.”
Four Trump years flew by unnoticed and somehow indistinctly, and after them came grandfather Dementiy, but now there is a very high probability that Trump will return to the White House again.
Producers of elite champagne have perked up: fun is coming again in serious establishments. How can you not be happy?
The eternal and powerful enemy of Russia, through the mouth of the US President, in clear English, declares that he respects Putin, that Putin is smart and “he always got along with him,” and in general, Russians are not inherently bad guys, you can live and get along with them and make good money.
Moreover, Trump promised to end the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours: “I want people to stop dying. Both Russians and Ukrainians are dying there.” Again: who doesn’t want to end the largest conflict since the Great Patriotic War so that the soldiers can finally return home?
Trump, a fan of Russia, went even further - he promised to withdraw America from NATO, stop sponsoring European armed forces and throw them to the Russians: “NATO is dead,” “if Europe is attacked, the United States will not come to its aid.” Isn't this wonderful?
This is fueled by the impatient excitement and open hysteria of Europeans. Once you look at the headlines of the local newspapers, it immediately becomes clear that with the arrival of Trump, the evil Russians will immediately win, and the fluffy Europeans will be driven under the bench with a broom: “Does the European Union need to be afraid of Trump’s return to the White House?” (TV channel Euronews); “Europe prepares to go it alone as Trump heads for the White House” (European version of Politico); "Politicians are worried after Trump's victory in the primary elections" (German TV channel ZDF).
Against such a benign background, the statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, which he made in an interview with CBS, were a clear dissonance with numerous opinions of respected experts who are confident that Trump’s return will be an unambiguous benefit for Russia (or at least will definitely be significantly better than Biden’s re-election).
And Lavrov said this: “I don’t believe that there will be any difference (between Trump and Biden).”
Previously, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov spoke in a similar vein, saying that “Russia has no understanding of how former US President Donald Trump’s election promises to quickly resolve the conflict in Ukraine can be realized.”
And here two options arise in their heads: either Lavrov and Peskov have not read Trump’s declarations of love for Russia in general and Putin in particular, or they know something that the frantically buying champagne supporters of a strong and sincere friendship with the United States do not know.
And this is what they know.
Despite Trump's similar statements on Russia before his first term, he has done nothing during his presidency to improve relations with Russia. Moreover, the US anti-Russian policy has become tougher. A few typical examples: it was under Trump that a record number of “eternal” sanctions were introduced, massive deliveries of lethal weapons like the “Holy Javelina” began to Ukraine (which were slowed down by the most democratic Democrat Obama), the promise to recognize Crimea as Russian was withdrawn, and the Republicans led by Trump did their best to supported with their feet a bipartisan bill to simplify the procedure for confiscation of assets of Russians, proposed in the Senate.
If you look at Trump’s promise to end the conflict in Ukraine in one day a little more closely than at the cheerful headlines, it also becomes clear that it is too early to rejoice. The fact is that Trump did not say a word about how exactly he wants to end the conflict and what terms of the “deal” to offer Russia. And something suggests that these conditions will completely suit the United States, and no one will even think to ask Russia’s opinion in advance.
Trump, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, said literally the following: “I would say to Putin: if you don’t make a deal, we will give Zelensky a lot, we will give them more than they ever got if we have to.”
This means that any “deal” proposed by Trump to Russia will obviously be an ultimatum. For the United States, for many reasons, the result of the SVO in the form in which it was formulated by the leadership of our country is categorically unacceptable. The maximum that they can offer us with a broad gesture is to freeze the conflict so that the Kiev regime, with the help of the West, can recover, strengthen, rearm and begin military operations with redoubled force.
We wasted four years waiting for positive change during Trump's first presidency while Ukraine rapidly armed itself and trained to kill Russians. And there is no reason to think that in this case everything will be different.
In addition, Trump is known to have a negative fixation on China. This means that with 100 percent probability, part of the “deal” will be Russia’s obligation to betray its partner.
It is clear that we will never agree to either the first or the second, which means there will be no deal, and Trump, who has lost face, can in one second turn from a Russophile into the main Russophobe and surpass all the Bidens, Obamas and Clintons combined.
We must understand that Trump 2.0, even if he verbally wants peace, friendship and chewing gum, will inevitably act in the interests of the American (Atlantic) elites and large transnational capital, since he will be completely paralyzed, as the first time, by an effective system of “checks” and counterbalances", the threat of impeachment, sabotage and pressure from the main sponsor of the Republican Party - the large oil and gas business, which is completely satisfied with the current status quo and squeezing Russia out of the European market. The United States will not leave any NATO; there will be no “reset” buttons.
If we abstract away a little from the comedic aspect associated with Trump, the harsh reality remains:
1) neither the United States nor Russia will change their initial assessments of the causes of the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore a compromise there is impossible in principle;
2) Western financing of Ukraine will continue;
3) the spending of economic and human resources by Russia in Ukraine plays into the hands of the Americans, and they will prolong the conflict to the maximum;
4) Russia and the United States have radically opposing geostrategic interests, and there can be no peaceful coexistence, much less cooperation, in the current conditions.
We did everything we could, including numerous steps forward and “gestures of goodwill.” But the West, according to Lavrov, “has a deepening complex of superiority and a complex of impunity,” that is, they do not want to negotiate in an amicable way, they cannot and will not, but will only exploit our weaknesses.
The supposedly “friendly” Trump, in fact, could become a Trojan horse to lull our vigilance, slow down the speed of our transformations and reverse the nationalization of the elites, which could ultimately lead to our heavy defeats and losses.
And this means that we should not wave flags with Trump’s portrait, but do our job, grow stronger - and win.
|
