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2024-01-13 Arabia
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Mission Impossible. How the US-Yemen war will develop
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Artemy Sharapov
[REGNUM] On the night of January 11-12, the combined forces of the United States and Great Britain launched a series of missile attacks on Yemen. On the American side, the operation was attended by ships and submarines belonging to the US Navy squadron in the Red Sea, aircraft from US Air Force bases in the Middle East and the aviation group of the aircraft carrier Dwight Eisenhower. On the British side, four multirole fighters from the Akortiri base in Cyprus and one refueling aircraft were involved.
Continued from Page 4
Washington said the attack on Yemen was a response to ongoing incidents of aggression against civilian ships in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Unlike, for example, the “Powell test tube,” in this case the casus belli (cause for war) was not fictitious.
WHAT PRECEDED THE ATTACK
In October, the military-religious Shiite movement Ansar Allah (Supporters of Allah, whose members are also known as the Houthis), which has been the de facto government in northern Yemen since 2015, announced the launch of a naval operation in support of Palestine.
It was officially stated that any ships traveling both to and from Israel, as well as those belonging to Israeli citizens, become a military target.
| ...along with any other ships that pass within reach that aren’t Russian, Chinese, or Iranian, because they aren’t clever enough to stick with their designated targets. |
Subsequently, the attacks were expanded to ships registered in countries that in one way or another supported Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip.
In November, the Houthis seized the Galaxy Leader, which was towed to the port of Hodeidah.
The use of anti-ship missiles and drones against civilian ships, as well as raids by the Houthi navy, have threatened shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a natural waterway through which ships travel from the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea and back.
The US has formed a coalition to fight the Houthis. As a result, ten countries are participating in Operation Prosperity Defender.
However, for the time being, the United States refrained from direct military confrontation, limiting itself to escorting civilian ships and destroying drones launched from Yemen.
The situation escalated sharply on the night of January 8-9, when the Houthis launched a large-scale combined attack aimed directly at warships of the international squadron.
Anglo-American forces shot down 18 kamikaze drones, two anti-ship cruise missiles and one anti-ship ballistic missile.
According to British media reports, after the attack, Washington and London began planning a joint attack against the Houthis.
SUBTOTALS
In total, about one hundred munitions were fired into Yemen. According to the head of the US Central Command, Lieutenant General Alex Grinkevich, the strike hit more than 60 targets in 16 locations of Houthi military forces.
The US Air Force used a wide range of aircraft ammunition. Tomahawk cruise missile carriers were also involved in the operation. The RAF operated an arsenal of GPS/laser-guided Paveway IV bombs.
The Paveway IV bomb was adopted by the RAF in 2008. De facto, we are talking about American Mark 82 aerial bombs weighing 227 kg, equipped with a control complex, a laser guidance system and equipment that allows them to overcome interference created by electronic warfare systems.
But, despite the scale of the attack, its results are very doubtful. The command of the Houthi military wing reported 73 attacks, the targets of which were targets in Sanaa, the provinces of Saada, Taiz, Hajjah and Hodeidah.
As a result of these attacks, five soldiers were killed and six more were injured. The Houthis also said the attacks did not significantly affect their military capabilities.
HOW WILL THE HOUTHIS RESPOND?
And it seems that the United States really does not have the resources to suppress the Houthis, military expert and author of a number of publications on the military-political situation in the Middle East, Yuri Lyamin,
| ...a Russian blogger who has been tweeting on military subjects since 2010... |
told IA Regnum.
“The strikes will not fundamentally change the situation, they will only make the situation even more tense and dangerous,” noted Yuri Lyamin.
He believes that the Houthis will most likely respond by launching new attacks against US and British ships using drones and missiles, only the response will be more powerful than all previous attacks.
The expert recalled that the Houthis have been in a state of permanent war since 2015.
They’re Yemenis. There’s nothing else for them to do with their time.
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The civil war that began after the group seized power in the country quickly escalated into an international conflict.
The united forces of the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia fought against Ansar Allah for seven years, but were unable to achieve a decisive turning point. At the same time, the group has extensive experience in fighting an enemy with total air superiority.
Although the Houthis do not have modern air defense, they have extensive experience in camouflaging their military installations and missiles from a potential enemy. Therefore, it is possible that most of the rebel arsenal was hidden on the eve of the Anglo-American attack and was actually not damaged.
This means that the Houthis can not only continue their attacks, but also expand their geography.
"ATTACK HIM AS HE WOULD ATTACK YOU"
On the eve of the Anglo-American operation, the Houthi media wing published a video warning against potential aggressors. The video captured the launch of dozens of kamikaze drones, ready to strike. The video is also accompanied by the Koranic quote “If anyone attacks you, respond to him in accordance with his actions.”
Later, the official representative of the Houthi military wing, Yahya Sari, issued an official statement in which he confirmed his readiness to strike military targets of the aggressors.
According to experts, the international squadron in the Red Sea will remain a priority target for the rebels. However, the Houthis have ballistic missiles capable of striking at distances of thousands of kilometers, which seriously expands their capabilities.
Among the targets that could be attacked by the rebels is the largest US Air Force airbase in the Al-Dhafra region, located in the UAE.
Some of the planes involved in the attack on Yemen took off from this airfield. Electronic reconnaissance aircraft, tanker aircraft and other equipment are also based here.
In January 2022, the Houthis launched a combined attack using missiles and kamikaze drones, which managed to overcome air defenses and hit Abu Dhabi airport.
That is, the Houthis have the necessary resources and experience to launch a “retaliation strike.”
The rebels have ammunition in their arsenal that can reach American military bases. In September 2023, the Houthis demonstrated Aqeel ballistic missiles with detachable warheads and Quds-4 cruise missiles. Both types of weapons are capable of hitting targets at a distance of two to two and a half thousand kilometers.
The Houthis also use Wa'id-2 kamikaze drones, a copy of the Iranian Shahed-136 drones with a range of up to 2,500 km.
The US Air Force base "Al-Udeid" in Qatar and other military facilities may also come under attack.
DUBIOUS PROSPECTS
It can be stated that the Anglo-American attack was more of a demonstration than a real attempt to influence the situation in the Red Sea.
De facto, the United States and its allies have neither the desire nor the ability to inflict any serious damage on the Houthis. A full-scale intervention of NATO forces in Yemen and the subsequent military defeat of the Houthis “on the ground” could change the situation, but it is extremely unlikely that Washington will do this in the current geopolitical realities.
“I don’t expect a US ground operation. The United States does not have sufficient forces for this in the region, nor does it have the desire to divert them from the forces that they have to restrain China and Russia,” notes Yuri Lyamin.
A similar point of view is shared by most Western and Arabic-speaking experts.
For the United States, decisive victory in such a war would require enormous military, diplomatic and economic costs, notes the Washington Post. Moreover, the Biden administration does not intend to drag the country into another conflict in the Middle East on the eve of the presidential elections.
On the other hand, for the Houthis, the involvement of the United States in a long-term conflict could become a reason for consolidating the Yemeni population and asserting their control over part of the country’s territory. While the United States does not have the resources to defeat the Houthi group.
“The Houthis actually won this confrontation the same day they started it,” Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies in Sanaa, told Qatari television channel Al Jazeera.
On the other hand, Washington will not be able to quietly watch the Houthis influence global trade and will be forced to continue limited military operations and targeted strikes with no hope of significant success.
How much this will cost the United States and what the Houthis’ response will be will become known in the near future. However, it seems that the United States has gradually begun to be drawn into another Middle East conflict without a chance for a quick victory and without the possibility of retreat.
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