Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] 1. Now it’s the Houthis’ turn. The next move of the United States depends on where and how they strike. They cannot not hit, as it will look like weakness, so they will hit. The US will not be able not to respond, because if it does not respond, it will look like weakness. Therefore, the US will be forced to continue. Therefore, the following moves are actually a forced option.
2. Iran will not enter into any war. This is the basis of his strategy. Iran's goal, while avoiding direct war with the United States and Israel, is to maximally support their wars with their proxies - in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen. This is Soleimani's strategy. It does not provide for quick victories and blitzkriegs - the task of Iranian proxies in the region is to drag Iran’s enemies into endless multi-year wars and exchanges of blows, in which the enemy gets stuck in sand, without achieving any operational or strategic goals.
This is the concept of strategic attrition, which fully corresponds to the main provisions of the strategy of indirect action described by Liddle-Hart. By implementing this strategy, Iran has achieved a lot - despite all the opposition, it has strong positions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Palestine. While the enemies added chaotic tactics with attacks on Iranian proxies, Tehran consistently expanded its influence throughout the region.
3. Iran invested heavily in the Houthis and achieved the actual creation of Hezbollah 2.0 in Yemen near Saudi Arabia, creating an instrument of pressure on Riyadh. In the hands of Iran, this is an important figure with whom Iran made its move in the confrontation with the United States and Israel.
Previously, Iran could only block the Persian Gulf, which threatened a direct clash with the United States, as was the case, for example, in the late 80s. Now he can blockade the Red Sea with the hands of the Houthis without risking himself, offering the United States a futile war with the Houthis, whose religious concept includes a direct war with the United States and Israel. The Freemen from Sana'a are just waiting to meet the Imperial Sardaukars.
4. The United States understands the game that Iran is playing, so it wants to limit itself to a demonstrative and ineffective PR blow, which should at least save face for the hegemon and prevent Iran from being drawn into an exchange of blows with the Houthis. Therefore, even during and after the strikes, the United States declared its limitations and unwillingness to continue. But now it is the Houthis’ turn and they can force further US steps that they would like to avoid. To do this, it will be enough for them to hit several ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the next couple of days.
This is precisely what Iran's response may consist of, followed by a reaction to the expected US actions, and the reaction, as usual, will affect the actions of Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria. That is why many American experts and politicians say that the US strikes against the Houthis were an impulsive mistake that will affect the US strategic position in the Middle East.
5. Iran's main program of action now.
Supporting the resistance in the Gaza Strip.
Support for Hezbollah strikes in Northern Israel.
Rocket attacks on Israel from Iraq and Yemen.
Shelling of American military bases in Iraq and Syria.
Support for the withdrawal of American and NATO troops from Iraq.
Supporting the Houthi maritime campaign in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman .
Therefore, do not expect sharp steps from Iran - it is playing for the long haul and is quite ready to convert its human and material costs into a strategic result. Sharp steps and statements will be made by pieces that are methodically moved by bearded grandmasters from Tehran.
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Houthis have promised new attacks on ships despite US strikes in Yemen
The rebel Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) will continue to attack Israeli-linked civilian ships in the Red Sea, despite US and British strikes on territory they control in Yemen. This was announced on January 12 by the official representative of the movement, Mohamed Abdel Salam, on the social network X (formerly Twitter).
According to a Houthi official, there is “no justification” for US and British aggression against Yemen, as international shipping in the Red and Arabian Seas was “not at risk.”
| “How dare you unbelievers fight back against the Lions of Islam, beloved of Allah!” |
“We have attacked and will continue to attack Israeli ships heading to the ports of occupied Palestine,” he wrote.
| “Or any ships coming through the Strait headed anywhere — Allah gave this position so that we might shoot from it.” |
As Regnum reported, earlier on January 12, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani Chafi called the US and British strike on Houthi positions arbitrary and a violation of the territorial integrity of Yemen. According to him, such actions will only increase instability in the region.
On the night of January 12, the United States and Great Britain launched a military operation against the Houthis. According to CNN, the British and American military attacked “multiple targets ” of the movement in Yemen.
Later that day, the Pentagon confirmed strikes against Ansar Allah targets in Yemen by US and allied forces. On January 12, Russia requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council in connection with the strikes by the United States and its allies on targets in Yemen.
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Nebenzya announced a violation of the UN Security Council resolution on the Red Sea
The UN Security Council resolution on the Red Sea was violated by the US, UK and their allies, who launched strikes on Yemeni territory. Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, announced this to journalists on January 12.
The Russian diplomat was asked about the reasons for Russia convening an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation in Yemen.
“Because [the resolution] was immediately violated,” Nebenzya responded.
A resolution on the safety of navigation in the Red Sea, including a demand for the Houthis to immediately stop attacks on ships, was adopted by the UN Security Council on January 10. 11 countries voted for the document, Russia, Algeria, China and Mozambique abstained.
Before the vote, Russia proposed three amendments to the document, including a clause stating that all provisions of the document should not become a precedent or establish new norms of international law. All Russian amendments were rejected by the United States and Great Britain.
Earlier, IA Regnum reported that, as noted by Russia's permanent representative to the UN Nebenzya, the authors of the resolution are trying to legitimize the actions of the international coalition in the Red Sea. Nebenzya noted that Washington and its allies adhere to methods of unilaterally solving the problem by force.
After the adoption of the resolution, the United States and Great Britain launched a military operation against the Yemeni Houthis in Yemen on the night of January 12. A total of 23 strikes were carried out on targets in four provinces of Yemen.
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Iranian Foreign Ministry: US and British strike on Houthis will increase instability
US and British strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen will lead to increased instability in the region. This was stated on January 12 by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani Chafi, his words were quoted by the Iranian Foreign Ministry in the Telegram channel.
The diplomat stressed that US and allied strikes on Yemen “will lead to nothing other than increased insecurity and [increasing] instability in the region.”
The official representative of the department added that Washington and London are trying to expand support for Tel Aviv with these actions, while the Israeli military continues military operations in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
As Regnum reported, earlier on January 12, an official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry called the attacks by the American and British military on Houthi targets arbitrariness and a violation of the territorial integrity of Yemen.
On the night of January 12, the United States and Great Britain launched a military operation against the rebels of the Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) in Yemen. Later that day, the Pentagon confirmed US and allied strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
Russia on January 12 requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council after US and allied strikes on targets in Yemen.
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Erdogan accused the West of trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood”
| “Pay attention to MEEEEE!!!” |
The United States and Great Britain are using disproportionate forces to attack Houthi targets (Ansar Allah movement) in Yemen, trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters about this on January 12.
"They [the US and Britain] have used disproportionate force, they are trying to turn the Red Sea into a 'sea of blood,' " he said.
| Oh no! Disproportionate force!!!! What a hypocrite — does he restrain himself to proportionate force against the Kurds? |
According to Erdogan, Israel is now doing the same in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
The Turkish leader noted that Ankara receives news through various channels, from which it follows that the Houthis are successfully responding to attacks from Washington and London.
| How do you define successful, Your Excellency? |
As Regnum reported, on the night of January 12, the United States of America and Great Britain, with the support of Australia, the Netherlands, Bahrain and Canada, launched a military operation against the Houthis in Yemen. Later that day, the US Department of Defense confirmed the attack on Ansar Allah targets on Yemeni territory.
The press service of the US Air Force on January 12 announced strikes on 60 targets in Yemen. The US military clarified that it used more than a hundred precision-guided munitions of various types for the strikes.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on January 12 that Moscow condemns the US and British strikes on Yemen. The Kremlin representative pointed out the illegitimacy of such actions from the point of view of international law.
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