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2023-12-28 Arabia
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CDR Salamander: The Good, the Bad and the Red Sea
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| As always, thought provoking. Herewith a few paragraphs: |
I hope everyone is recovering from the holiday season enough to gird your loins and livers for New Years and bowl season … but when you get a chance, make sure and keep your eyes open to the rapidly developing events in the Red Sea.
Reason why I’m pondering this is simple; I’m not all that sure this is sustainable.
Someone is going to run out of missiles (Winchester) eventually. We are not making efforts to take out their launchers and magazines ashore, so they are at liberty to pop off at will.
Huh. We’re not buying all that much considering what we’ve been sending downrange this year.
What am I missing budget pros?
Anyway, not to channel my inner Elbridge Colby here, but … I keep thinking of the varsity game in the Western Pacific. If you want to sober up - get the classified briefing on the Red Sea engagements and then look at any of your garden variety Taiwan scenarios.
The math it hard. Industrial capacity is harder. Logistics is a nightmare.
There’s your math problem, but I have a larger issue with our OPERATION ROPE-A-DOPE - what are we actually trying to accomplish?
If our mission is to intercept as many outbound weapons from Houthi controlled Yemen - sent to everyone from Israel, to shipping, to USN DDGs - with the hope to avoid anything that might escalate the Gaza conflict, then perhaps we’re doing OK in the short run.
If our mission is to deter the Houthis from attacking Israel or shipping, then I’m not sure we are doing all that well. To paraphrase something I said last night SEPCOR; if you are in a bar and some jerk starts taking swings at you and you dodge every punch he throws, side step every kick he makes without touching him - why should he feel deterred from continuing his attacks? If all his friends and big brother are cheering him on while he talks smack to you, insults your mom, sister, the scooter you drove in on - the whole shebang - why should he stop as long as he has the energy to continue? In reality, this will just lead him to grab an empty bottle, a bar stool, or a pool cue and try to bash your brain in with that instead.
Nothing we’re doing is deterring the Houthis. We have done absolutely nothing but encourage their behavior. As we are not taking out their launch sites or magazines, really we’re just in a competition to see if they run out of missiles before we run out of fresh VLS cells east of Rota. 
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Posted by Griter Slash1619 2023-12-28 00:00||
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