[REGNUM] Vladimir Putin called what is happening in Gaza a disaster, but despite the inhumanity of what is already happening, the situation can become much worse.The fire has long gone beyond Gaza. Israel is conducting clean-up operations in the Western Jordan River, where many hundreds of people have already been killed and thousands arrested, and is conducting firefights with the Lebanese Hezbollah. Yemen is shelling tankers heading to Israel in the Red Sea, which has already led to a virtual halt in the work of the Israeli port of Eilat.

Bibi is giving the shipping nations the opportunity to burn out the Houthi pirate strongholds while Israel is occupied with Hamas. If nothing is done, the IAF will send a couple of bombers over to handle it.

And yet there was hope that a major war in the Middle East could be avoided. But US Presidential Adviser Jake Sullivan, who arrived in Israel on December 14, actually gave the green light to the escalation of the disaster.

Si vis pacem, para bellum. He also made a bunch of “Yes, but” statements, as have other members of the Biden administration, so one can cherry pick something to support any and all positions.

The risk of a major war is dangerous because both its course and the number of participants are completely unpredictable. It was in order to secure Israel that the United States brought in its navy, threatening Iran with a strike if it attempted to intervene directly or with the help of the Lebanese Hezbollah it supported.

The American military umbrella guaranteed Israel that no Islamic country would be able to stand up for Gaza by starting shelling of the Jewish state or opening a second front against it. The United States thereby gave Israel time to destroy Hamas. But everything did not go at all as planned for Binyamin Netanyahu.

The military operation turned out to be difficult and long.

As promised...

Despite the total superiority of the Israeli army, destroying the Hamas military forces on their homeland turned out to be far from easy.

As predicted...

Nobody knows the real state of affairs - the foreign press is not allowed into the sector, there is no reason to trust the victorious statements of Israel and Hamas. But it is clear that battles in the format of urban battles in ruins and tunnels will continue for a very long time. However, neither Israel nor the United States simply have time.

Including because the barbaric bombings, the special destruction of housing and infrastructure, the death toll approaching 20 thousand (of which the absolute majority are women and children),

...the ratios are no doubt true, even if the numbers are exaggerated, because the fighters surround themselves with human shields, both domestic and foreign, willing or not...

more than a million refugees, the refusal to supply medicines, and the lack of food led to a real catastrophe. Almost the entire world places responsibility for it on Israel, demanding a ceasefire.

Almost the entire world are Jew-hating idiots, it seems, with no power to enforce their demands.

But Israel cannot stop the punitive operation against Hamas, because by doing so it admits defeat. After all, the declared goal - the destruction of the Palestinian resistance structure - will not be achieved.

There was peace and no destruction on October 6th. What happened since is why starting a war against a strong and determined neighbour is a colossally stupid idea.

The Israeli leadership cannot admit that the goal was initially unattainable, because to achieve it the entire Gaza Strip would have to be razed to the ground.

Actually, they knew that. Razed below the ground, too.

Therefore, it wants to continue not only fighting with Hamas, but also all-out bombing.

Yes.

How does the United States behave in this situation? They are pushing to scale back the operation to reassure both Joe Biden's future voters and the increasingly tense Islamic world. But Netanyahu has more than once refused to listen to Washington’s recommendations, realizing that all this is just words. In reality, the Americans will continue to supply weapons and provide military-political cover for Israel.

Also Germany, among others. The Netherlands is supplying replacement parts for Israel’s F-35s.

And on Thursday, Councilor Sullivan met with the Israeli military cabinet. Judging by leaks in the American and Israeli press, he announced the US desire to “complete a large-scale ground and air campaign in Gaza” before the New Year. And move on to targeted operations against Hamas.

You can’t always get what you want, as the song goes.

What the Israelis answered him is not difficult to guess. Literally on the eve of the meeting with Sullivan, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the operation in Gaza would last more than several months. That is, there is no question of any completion.

Or Hamas could give up the fight tomorrow, and then the operation will be over.

Moreover, the same Gallant has repeatedly threatened Lebanon that it will turn it into Gaza if Hezbollah tries to attack Israel.

A clear message.

And no one is embarrassed by threats to an independent state. Since Israel calls the Lebanese Hezbollah a terrorist organization, does that mean it can raise hell in Lebanon too?

Yes. It’s done so before. No one interfered then to save Hezbollah, so it seems likely no one will now.

After all, anything can be called an attack on Israel. Mutual shelling on the border has been going on for two months, not to mention the fact that Israel has not stood on ceremony before when it needed to invade Lebanon.

The problem is that Israel both wants and is afraid to strike Lebanon first - the 2006 operation showed that Hezbollah can give a serious rebuff. Since then, its power has only grown, now it is a much more serious force than the lightly armed Hamas.

When Israel finally does go after Hezbollah, the secondaries from those 150,000 rockets and missiles cooking off is going to be awesome.

Why does Israel still believe in its ability to defeat Hezbollah? Yes, because the United States is behind it. And Netanyahu expects that the United States will be drawn into the war in Lebanon.

I imagine PM Netanyahu is hoping America keeps well back and doesn’t jog the Israeli elbow.

Alas, this scenario is becoming more and more real. This is evidenced by another statement Sullivan made during his visit to Israel. The statement is non-public, but has not yet been refuted by anyone. According to statements in the Israeli press, Sullivan said that if diplomatic efforts to address the risk from Hezbollah fail, the United States would support Israel if it attacks the group.

That is, the States gave Netanyahu carte blanche to attack Lebanon, because “diplomatic efforts” in Israel are completely misunderstood. According to the Israeli government, Hezbollah must withdraw its formations from the border, which the Shiite group, naturally, will never do.

Then they made their choice.

And Israel then attacks Lebanon, with the promise of US support in its pocket. And counting on the fact that if Hezbollah fails to be broken—and this will happen—then the American army will intervene in the conflict on Israel’s side.

Do you think so? I don’t.

If this really happens, we will find ourselves on the verge of a catastrophe no longer on the scale of Gaza or the scale of Lebanon. Direct US involvement in the conflict will force Iran to change its position of forced non-intervention. Not to mention the fact that Israel will provoke Iran in order to expose it to US attacks.

This could start a full-scale multilateral war in the Middle East, a catastrophe on a global scale.

Israel has nukes and bunker busters, and knows where Iran’s hidey holes are. I suspect Israel’s response to Iran will be precise, devastating, fast, and was planned shortly after Mossad returned with the contents of that Iranian government warehouse.