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2023-10-16 Europe
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Elections in Poland: chaos and civil war are predicted for the country
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Stanislav Stremidlovsky
[REGNUM] On Sunday, October 15, elections to the Sejm and Senate are held in Poland. On the eve of the vote in the country, there was talk on the Vistula about the possible defeat of the currently ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, which would lead to anarchy and almost civil war. In an interview with the French publication Le Point, former Polish President Lech Walesa said that the situation is serious: “I do not exclude the risk of civil war in Poland. Ultimately, people will take to the streets in even greater numbers. I’m even afraid that they will use weapons.”
| They predicted the same thing if Donald Trump lost in 2020. |
This was also discussed in a conversation between the former head of the Polish Military Counterintelligence Service, General Piotr Pytel, and the opposition Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza. Pytel commented on the recent high-profile resignation of the Chief of the General Staff, General Raimund Andrzejczak (number one of the Polish Army) and the Chief of Operations Command, General Tomasz Piotrowski (number two).
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“It’s hard for me to say this, but it seems that General Andrzejczak did not rule out the possibility of the PiS party launching a military option if it loses the elections,” said the retired counterintelligence officer. “Taking into account the previous “achievements” of “Law and Justice” in the field of violation of the law, violation of the constitution, I will say the same thing that is being said in the public space - they will not give up power voluntarily.”
The hypothetical designs outlined by Walesa and Pytel should make some impression on both Polish voters and outside observers. But which one?
In the first case, it is obvious that the electorate of the opposition and the undecided is encouraged to go to the ballot boxes en masse,
so that “Law and Justice” takes only second place at the end of the elections. After all, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that he would issue a mandate to form a government to the party that becomes the first.
In the second case, loud warnings are directed at the European Commission, the European Parliament and other institutions. They are asked to deny legitimacy to the Polish government if PiS is able to form it again,
since this party is allegedly ready to go beyond the legal framework. And since, according to Walesa, such a “rebellion” can be expected not only in Poland, Law and Justice poses a danger to the entire European Union as the initiator of negative processes.
At the end of August, former Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz spoke about a similar scenario. On the air of the opposition Polish TV channel TVN24, he said that the secrecy of voting in the current elections will not be observed, which is why their results “will be called into question either in Poland on appeal or by the international community.”
However, this does not necessarily mean that PiS goes beyond the legal framework. Even Polish legal scholars who are critical of the ruling party note that Law and Justice can, in the event of its hypothetical defeat, disavow it by legal means. No later than 90 days after the elections, the Supreme Court of Poland will have to decide on the legality of the elections to the Sejm and Senate, which PiS can take advantage of.
But it's not only that. Intimidating the Poles with a “civil war” and a “forceful option” can play into the hands of the ruling party. Its leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has already promoted the topic of paralysis of the country in the event of an opposition victory at election rallies. At one of these events, Kaczynski stated that only his strength could ensure a stable government in Poland.
He painted the prospect of coalition governments consisting of several "hostile" parties fighting Polish President Andrzej Duda. According to the chairman of Law and Justice, this development foreshadows civil war or anarchy.
Polish society takes the threats of the leader of the ruling party seriously. According to a survey conducted by the Social Changes studio commissioned by the pro-government portal wPolityce. pl, almost half of Poles, 48%, agree with the opinion that “Poland will face political chaos if the opposition, consisting of several different parties, wins the next elections.” The opposite point of view is shared by 30% of respondents. 22% have no opinion on this issue.
Interestingly, from this survey it follows that it is predominantly voters of such opposition forces as Civic Platform and Poland 2050 who are not afraid of “chaos”. Therefore, it is unlikely that the pathos of the judgments of Walesa and Pytel will influence them. This once again suggests that the authors of judgments about the “civil war” and the “forceful option” are rather betting on the European Union and the United States, wanting to discredit PiS in their eyes.
And perhaps in this way they also appeal to voters of the ruling party, who oppose leaving the EU and consider the Americans to be Poland's main ally. They are trying to convince supporters of Law and Justice that the victory of their party will make the country an outcast, with which Brussels and Washington will not want to deal.
In addition, the game is for the votes of undecided voters who are skeptical about the opposition’s chances: such people find no reason to vote. Statements that Law and Justice does not recognize the election results should convince them of the possibility of defeat for the ruling party and motivate them to reach the ballot box.
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Posted by badanov 2023-10-16 00:00||
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Posted by Grom the Reflective 2023-10-16 04:10||
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Posted by Grom the Reflective 2023-10-16 12:02||
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