 Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
By Viktor Vasiliev
[REGNUM] The armed coup in Niger, which on July 27 became a successful informational support for the Russia-Africa summit and gave rise to a significant number of memes, is far from over. The situation is developing rapidly, and the coming to power of the military on the Black Continent, which is quite familiar for the last two years, in this particular case, can turn into a major interregional conflict.
On August 1, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Nigeria (not to be confused with Niger), Christopher Musa, on the air of French Radio International (RFI) said that if the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) orders an invasion of Niger, the country's armed forces will carry it out.
And, perhaps, this is the most serious fact in favor of an armed invasion of Niger by ECOWAS. The armed forces of Nigeria have about 215 thousand people and impressive military equipment, this is the fourth most powerful military power on the continent.
The reorientation in solving the military-political problem in West Africa from Chad to Nigeria and the very fact of the firm intention of the Nigerian authorities to play a leading role in suppressing the rebellion speaks of one thing - the United States is behind the ongoing confrontation .
Paris does not and has never had any significant influence on Nigeria, and the latter has always preferred to bypass the conflicts of the Francophone part of Africa. Here we see a completely different situation.
An emergency conference - a meeting of ECOWAS leaders took place precisely in the capital of Nigeria, Abuja, and a communiqué, distinguished by unprecedented firmness, was adopted there demanding the restoration of the status quo:
"In the event that the requirements of the conference are not met within one week, take all necessary measures to ensure constitutional order in the Republic of Niger."
The demands were made on July 30, and if the putschists do not release and return to power Mohamed Bazum , then this Sunday an armed intervention may begin, threatening to develop into a major inter-regional conflict.
The meeting in Abuja on July 30 was attended by the heads of seven African states - Benin, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Togo and the host country itself, Nigeria. Obviously, it is these countries that will become participants in the military intervention in Niger in order to restore the overthrown government.
However, the legitimacy of such a move is questionable.
First, it is clear that both society and the political opposition within Niger fully supported the putschists. And this is the main asset of Abdurakhman Chiani, who came to power.
The overthrown President Bazum was not popular among the population and came to power through rather difficult elections (two rounds took place) with direct support from France and the United States.
Another factor is the origin of the deposed leader. Bazum is not an ethnic Niger and belongs to an Arab tribe living in southern Libya, born outside of Niger itself. This circumstance was the subject of Bazum's main criticism during the elections at the turn of 2020-2021 and during his reign.
In addition, the reforms and practices implemented by the new president did not suit both the former elites and the military.
Thus, the president of Niger, Bazum, did not enjoy either support or popularity, and this is confirmed by the very ideal format of the putsch - without a single shot or any bloodshed, in an atmosphere of absolute calm and routine.
Secondly, the new authorities have significant public support from their immediate neighbors.
Moreover, the rather tense political crisis between the authorities of Mali and President Bazum in the last couple of years allows us to speak, if not about a conspiracy version, then about the obvious fact of the presence of ties and preliminary agreements between the Niger putschists and the military junta of Mali.
Public support for the new authorities was also expressed by Burkina Faso. Moreover, the leaders of these two countries issued a statement in which they expressed their readiness to provide armed support to the new authorities of Niger, led by Chiani, in the event of armed aggression by third forces.
Moreover, the African media report that the leadership of Burkina Faso, represented by the head of the Transitional Council, Captain Ibrahim Traore , and the leadership of Mali, represented by the head of the Transitional Council, Colonel Assimi Goyot allegedly agreed during their meeting in St. in the event of any violation of its territorial integrity.
Support for the National Council for the Defense of the Fatherland (an organization of putschists) and the people of Niger was expressed by Guinea, where almost two years ago there was also a military coup.
The Guinean authorities opposed the intervention of ECOWAS, in a press release issued on July 31, they " pay tribute to the courageous people of Niger for their high sense of patriotism and salute the republican spirit and maturity " of the coup soldiers.
Thus, the leader of Guinea, Mamady Dumbua, spoke out against all sanctions, which he considers " illegal and inhuman ", and against armed intervention by ECOWAS.
The new authorities were also supported by famous Sudanese hackers (hackers from the Anonymous Sudan group became famous for attacks on Israeli companies, as well as hacking and stealing data from Microsoft).
In general, public opinion on the African continent is completely on the side of the putschists, who in many ways express pan-African sentiments in their political rhetoric.
It is also curious that the Economic Community of West African Countries, which was actually conceived and created by France, is increasingly turning from an economic organization into a military-political one, and among its goals the fight against coups is now a priority. This, in particular, was announced during the appointment of a new chairman of the organization of the President of Guinea-Bissau Umar Sissoko.
According to some African media, on Wednesday, August 2, a meeting of the chiefs of military staffs of the ECOWAS countries is to be held in the Nigerian capital: an emergency meeting during which a military strategy will be developed in case troops enter Niger.
Interesting in the context of the above is an attempt to involve the President of Chad , Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno , in the negotiations and mediation, who himself actually came to power with the help of a military putsch.
His visit to the capital of Niger, Niamey, is considered unsuccessful, since the aggressiveness of the coup's rhetoric towards France and the previous authorities only increased.
At the same time, it can be assumed that Chad will refrain from direct participation in the intervention. At least due to the fact that Mahamat Debi, when he was a brigadier general in the army of Chad, probably had and maintains today personal friendly relations with many of the military of Niger, who came to power.
A possible line of confrontation could also involve Algeria, north of the Niger, which traditionally has a dislike for France.
The media are already reporting on the transition to increased combat readiness of the armed forces of Algeria in the regions bordering Niger. The unscheduled visit to Moscow of the Chief of Staff of the National People's Army of Algeria, Said Shangrih, is also indicative.
Of course, one cannot lose sight of the fact that Algeria remains Russia's traditional partner on the continent and our key ally. There are Russian military instructors in Mali and Burkina Faso. In the current emergency situation, the new authorities can objectively count only on Russia's support, both indirect and direct.
If the military who carried out the coup is kept in power in Niger with Russian assistance, it will be possible to plan the construction of a gas pipeline, the pipes for which will be supplied by Russian companies. In turn, Algeria will allow Gazprom to become a co-investor in large gas projects, and the Wagner Group will ensure the security of gas transit through the territory of Niger.
We are not talking about the fact that Russian companies will be able to apply for concessions for the extraction of uranium and gold in Niger. As you can see, the game is worth the candle. If successful, all so far rather local and episodic Russian successes in Africa will get a second wind and line up in a single successful strategy.
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