Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov
[Regnum] In the Syrian city of Jaraman, not far from Damascus, on Sunday night there were armed clashes between various groups of the population. The suburb, home to hundreds of thousands of residents, is located east of the capital Damascus and is directly adjacent to the East Ghouta region. The number of its inhabitants has increased many times in recent years. A significant part of the population of Jaramana are Syrian Druze (a special ethno-confessional community), including those who migrated from the province of Al-Suwayda, as well as Palestinian and Iraqi refugees, most of whom were born or raised in Syria, as well as other Syrians, including displaced persons from occupied Syrian Golan.
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Many of them come from rural areas, not adapted to living in the city. Moreover, the city itself has become the scene of a struggle for resources and other conflicts of interest between different groups of the population. And the overall difficult economic situation in Syria has only added fuel to the fire of local contradictions.
RIOTS IN JARAMAN
The private conflict between Druze and Palestinian youth, which official sources say, could indeed be the spark that provoked the riots. But their main reason was the general strike announced in the city a few days ago.
At the same time, not all of Jaramana's stores joined in, many of their owners refused to stop trading. They were defeated by the inhabitants of the city themselves, who supported the action.
The riots were provoked by supporters of Walid Wally Jumblat
 ...Druze politician, head of the Progressive Socialist Party, who's been on every side in Leb at least four times. He'll sell you his friends for a dollar, but family comes higher because of shipping and handling...
, one of the leaders of the Lebanese Druze, who has always been a consistent opponent of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad . At least part of the Druze population of the city, who permanently resides in Jaraman, is under his influence and has contacts with the Druze in Lebanon. From there, not only money, but also ideas come to Jaraman.
Thus, these riots or protests also had a pronounced anti-government component, given the difficult economic situation in the country.
As one of the residents of Jaramana told the Lebanese publication Al-Modon, “the city in all its districts suffers from deliberate marginalization and a sharp deterioration in living conditions, as in any part of Syria. Anger also rages in people's hearts, and it can explode in waves of violence elsewhere as well, as happened in Jaraman."
The fact that government troops and security forces did not immediately enter the city allowed the situation to be resolved relatively safely and to avoid casualties, preventing a scenario of how similar events developed in 2011.
The government apparently managed to stop the current wave of unrest by taking appropriate measures. But there is a risk that after some time, clashes in various regions controlled by the government, but with continuing protest potential, may flare up again.
THE DRUSE FACTOR AND THE LIMITS OF PATIENCE
Despite the spontaneous nature of the clashes, it is clear that this is a new serious signal for the Syrian government, along with clashes flaring up from time to time in the Druze-populated province of Suwayda, which Damascus controls only very loosely. Armed groups of Druze, who are not controlled by the government (but do not openly oppose it as long as it does not violate their rights), operate almost openly in Suwayda.
The situation also remains difficult in Deraa and Quneitra, where government control is limited to certain areas and where the presence of the armed opposition, although it has gone through the reconciliation process, still has a large number of unaccounted for weapons.
In this context, attention should be paid to the Druze factor, which should not be ignored.
At the moment, it is the Druze who are the carriers of protest anti-government sentiments in the territories controlled by the government. And they are not afraid to openly state their demands.
Recall that in the late 20s of the twentieth century, it was the Druze, headed by Sultan al-Atrash, who were the main driving force behind the anti-colonial “Great Syrian uprising” against France, which was later joined by representatives of other Syrian ethno-confessional groups.
On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that not only the Druze, but also other Syrians may be driven to despair by the plight, which will force them to take to the streets and start “hunger riots” with far-reaching consequences. The limits of the patience of the people are not unlimited.
So, according to the Russian military correspondent Alexander Kharchenko, who is well acquainted with the state of affairs in the country, the Syrian population simply does not have money even for basic necessities.
“Only the middle class can afford chicken. The humanitarian situation is close to catastrophic. It is urgent to deal with the reconstruction of Syria before this territory turns into a battlefield of all against all. Then the confrontation between the government and the militants will seem like a children's matinee. After all, Eastern people, having a choice between war and trade, will always choose trade. Well, if they are not given such an opportunity, then bad thoughts climb into their heads. We have to fight this, ” wrote Kharchenko in his telegram channel.
SANCTIONS AND CRISIS
Western sanctions against Syria maintain internal tension in the country and make the recovery process difficult to implement. Especially harmful to this is the so-called. The "Caesar Act" adopted by the United States, which imposes restrictions on any companies and firms, as well as individuals cooperating with Syrian official institutions, including for the sake of restoring the country.
All this complicates the already critical situation in the SAR and prevents Damascus from making full use of the process of establishing ties with wealthy Arab monarchies.
After eleven years of conflict, more than 60% of Syrians - 12 million people - face hunger and wonder every day how they will feed their families, and 90% of the Syrian population now lives in poverty. Average food prices in the country are higher than at any time in the last ten years.
High dependence on imports for a number of commodities, exacerbated by lean years, has left Syria vulnerable to high global food prices. In particular, between 2020 and 2022, food prices rose by 532%, and this increase has continued steadily to this day.
This month, the Syrian pound recorded a historic collapse against the US dollar, its exchange rate hit its lowest level ever, 12,000 Syrian pounds to the dollar. At the beginning of this year, the market rate was about 6,500 Syrian pounds to the dollar. Prior to the 2011 protests, the Syrian pound traded at 47 pounds to the dollar.
The problems are exacerbated by interruptions in the delivery of fuel, which comes from Iran.
Tehran is not always able to provide Damascus with the necessary volumes of hydrocarbons, including due to opposition from Washington and its allies, which provokes serious fuel crises. Actually, the Syrian oil and gas fields are currently under the control of pro-American (mainly left-wing Kurdish) groups of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
In addition to climate challenges and persistent droughts in recent years, food prices, fuel shortages and ongoing internal conflict, various humanitarian crises in the SAR were exacerbated in February 2023 by an earthquake in northwestern Syria and southwestern Turkey.
All this has already brought millions of Syrian families to the brink of starvation. According to OCHA, average household spending in Syria in 2022 exceeded income by as much as 50%. In 2023, this dynamic has become even more horrific.
THE COUNTRY NEEDS REFORM
The problems that led to the revolutionary situation in 2011 were never resolved during the war, but only intensified. The level of corruption and concentration of capital in a narrow circle of people has reached unprecedented heights.
A decrease in armed activity does not lead to a positive result for the SAR economy. On the contrary, the “war economy” is only blooming with new colors, and various field commanders of pro-government formations have turned their formations into shadow business cartels, taking control of smuggling flows and imposing tribute on any movement of people and goods, dividing the country into zones of influence with corresponding checkpoints that have become unspoken collection points. And this is an extremely dangerous phenomenon for the country.
All this is happening against the backdrop of the blatant incompetence of responsible persons who are unable to use even the means that are available to them for their intended purpose.
Therefore, in itself, the hypothetical lifting or easing of Western sanctions will not lead to a rapid improvement in the situation. To do this, it is necessary to carry out a whole range of measures that would allow the Syrians to open access to financial resources and other assistance, eliminating bureaucratic and corruption barriers.
There are well-founded fears that the increase in aid to Syria will primarily lead to the enrichment of various magnates associated with the ruling family, while the effectiveness of support for the population will remain extremely low.
If deep reforms are not carried out in Syria, which will affect the basis of the current system, the country is likely to collapse and a new round of escalation. However, the authorities, preserving the fullness of the administrative resource instead of real reforms, prefer half-measures and imitation of transformations.
UAE SCANDAL
Moreover, the Syrian government often acts overly emotionally and may even negate the results already achieved, such as the normalization of relations with some Arab countries.
In particular, as Ayman Abdel Noor, an analyst with the Syrian Christian Peace Initiative, reported on July 22, relations between Syria and the UAE have deteriorated after the latter refused to provide the regime with large sums in a critical situation for the Syrian government that has developed at the present time.
In response to this Emirati inaction, the Assad regime confiscated the accounts and properties of major Emirati real estate developer EMAAR in Syria.
The Emiratis were surprised at this reckless behavior and treated this issue coldly and formally, as the company's lawyers sent a letter stating that the delay in the implementation of projects in Syria was the subject of a contractual clause, namely FORCE MAJOR, due to the ongoing war in the country.
The response of the Syrian regime surprised the company's management, as it said that there was no war in Syria, but only the persecution of armed gangs.
ALGERIAN LESSON
The current state of affairs in Syria is in many ways reminiscent of the situation in 2011, when the government refused to allow representatives of the real opposition to rule the country, albeit in a very limited and dosed form, with the exception of individual “pocket” oppositionists.
At the same time, this is exactly what the Syrian authorities should be encouraged to do, to demand from them the implementation of the provisions laid down in UN Security Council Resolution 2254 regarding the formation of a new inclusive executive body, which should be headed by representatives of the current government, but with the participation of opposition representatives.
There is a positive example of Algeria.
There, in government structures, there is a place for everyone, although the country is still led by the forces that led it to independence back in 1962. But which, unlike the Syrian regime, are ready to share power, including with their yesterday's opponents. This allowed Algeria to successfully end the civil war and political crises of the 90s.
In the end, such a government will be more stable, which again was shown by the events in Algeria, where the country did not slide into another civil war against the backdrop of the "Arab Spring" and after it, and all the protests were quite peaceful, precisely because the correct conclusions were drawn on results of the civil war that took place at the end of the last century. And in this, of course, the personal merit of the head of the country, Abdel Aziz Bouteflika, is great .
In Syria, no work is being done to correct the mistakes, on the contrary, the government considered itself a clear winner and decided that it was possible to continue to rule as before 2011.
This seems to be an extremely risky way, given that Damascus is trying to promote the same narratives on international platforms, presenting itself as a winner over the forces supported by various foreign sponsors, with which Syria is now normalizing its relations.
At the same time, Damascus forgets that the Assad government also survived solely thanks to external support, first from Iran, and since 2015 from Russia. Without them, his fate would also be unenviable.
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