| A taste from a much longer piece. |
[Modern War Institute at West Point] As recently as March, the director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, described a "grinding, attritional war in which neither side has a definitive military advantage." Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, was recently quoted cautioning realism, saying, "There is not going to be a single magic-wand moment when Russia collapses." The Russians believe much of the same, calculating that they can hold off Ukraine defensively and play the waiting game until launching another offensive when Western support has waned.
But what if all of this turns out wrong? What if Ukraine ends up routing Russian occupation positions relatively swiftly and effectively, with the Russian military in a hopeless retreat?
Given recent reporting, it is not altogether clear that the United States and its allies are fully prepared for such a contingency, which, although perhaps less likely than the alternatives, is not as unlikely as many may think; and if leaders are not prepared, they should start preparing now, so as to avoid finding themselves on the back foot in a crisis of significant consequence
-------------------
we weren't prepared for the banking crisis
we weren't prepared for the collapse of the Afghan Army
we weren't prepared for deep inflation.
of course we are not prepared 
|
