Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Dmitry Kosyrev
[RIA] You might think that history repeats itself. In August last year, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited the capital of the island of Taiwan. Last week it was the same, but in reverse. Another woman, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, is dating Pelosi incumbent Kevin McCarthy.
And if for the first time China simply flexed its muscles and limited itself to warnings, then what it has now arranged can no longer be called an ordinary show of force. The Chinese Armed Forces deployed an entire strike force near Taiwan - it was about the complete encirclement of the island. To do this, they used the brand new aircraft carrier Shandong and all the required ships of the retinue, including (possibly) a nuclear submarine. They simulated strikes against all targets, including objects of "political significance." And this time the Americans did not climb into the dangerous area.
One thing is clear: China has begun working out real scenarios for a conflict around Taiwan — a conflict primarily with the United States or its allies (the military capabilities of the island itself are not so serious). That is, in August last year, Beijing , apparently, rather improvised, and now it is acting much more purposefully.
In the PRC, they probably believe that it is not so much logic and reason as the state of mind of the Washington administration that can really bring things to war, and if so, then you need to think not about why to seize Taiwan (a senseless undertaking for China from all points of view) and see what can really happen.
There are a few other differences in the aftermath of Pelosi's August visit and Ing-wen's return visit. These are particulars, but they add up to an interesting picture.
First, after the previous crisis, Xi Jinping met with Joe Biden in Bali , and the latter confirmed that the US continues to consider China as one, not supporting the idea of Taiwanese independence. The crisis seemed to have been settled. Nevertheless, Tsai Ing-wen still arranged her "transit" visit to Washington , ostensibly on her way to Central America . Conclusion: Biden is incapable of negotiating.
Second, in August last year, Beijing imposed sanctions on Taiwan, depriving it of its raw materials for the production of semiconductors. This year, the situation has become even more complicated - the United States is seriously trying to transfer all the production of the most complex (that is, primarily Taiwanese) chips to its territory, intending to leave the island with nothing. And then what should he do and who will need him? But they warned: look at Ukraine ...
Thirdly, we recall that French President Emmanuel Macron, who had just visited China, gave an interview upon his return, in which he warned Europeans against participating in new "crises that are not ours", because there would not be enough strength and resources for this. Again Ukraine, which taught them something?
And lastly, in the United States itself, publications have appeared with references to sane strategists and experts of the administration, where the obvious is mercilessly indicated: the conflict between the two nuclear superpowers will be terrible and destroy the whole world, and why, in fact, does America need it? Taiwan has nothing to do with protecting the country's fundamental interests, but the cost of the island in American lives alone will be enormous.
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