[NPASyria] The US involvement is "the glue holding together the only meaningful counter ISIS" mission. In northeast Syria, the roughly 900 US troops are involved in aerial surveillance, coordinating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), civilian aid provision, tribal engagement, as well as medical evacuations of SDF troops, a US analyst said on Monday.
The mission has been met with some success, says Lister. At least three ISIS leaders have been killed by US operations in Syria. "Dozens" of high — and mid — ranking ISIS commanders have been targeted. "In terms of counterterrorism, we are unquestionably degrading ISIS," the piece concludes.
In a piece for Politico, a current affairs magazine, US Syria analyst Charles Lister calls the current US presence in Syria "vital and sustainable". Lister visited northeast Syria in early March, together with a US military delegation.
Yet at least 10,000 male ISIS fighters and over 50,000 women and kiddies remain detained in northeast Syria in 26 prisons and two camps — or what Lister calls "13 Guantanamos," referring to America’s illegal prison for terrorist suspects on Cuba. This is a dangerous situation, as the analyst highlights, as "prison breaks are part of ISIS’s DNA."
US forces on the ground told Lister that "we have to have a real sense of urgency to address this problem through repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration. This requires all arms of the US government; it requires the international community."
ISIS launched a major attack on Guweiran prison in the city of Hasakah in January 2022, which left nearly 500 people dead, including 261 SDF fighters. The administration of Hawl Camp, which holds around 52,500 ISIS-linked individuals, has repeatedly warned of an impending attack. According to the Politico piece, "multiple" major ISIS attacks against the camp have been foiled only in the last months.
Part of the problem is the fact repatriations of foreign nationals from camps and prisons is lagging behind. At the current pace, Lister says, it would take another 30 years to return everyone home. Iraq, which has at least 26,000 nationals in the Hawl alone, has accelerated repatriations. Yet, if it continues on the same path, it would take another six years to repatriate everyone. Of the remaining around 18,500 Syrians, most hail from Syrian government-controlled areas, making returns near impossible. Additionally, only 1 percent of third-country nationals have been repatriated.
Lister also acknowledges that the US presence in Syria, despite being sold as an anti-ISIS mission, is also crucial to containing Iran. "As CENTCOM has made clear, countering ISIS and preventing its resurgence is the second most vital US priority in the Middle East, but the first is facing down the threats posed by a hostile Iran, Lister writes." Attacks by Iranian-backed factions on US bases in Syria on March 23 and 24 have proven as much.
As North Press has written about before, despite — or rather because — such attacks by groups close to Iran, some US politicians have called for American troops to exit Syria. "Whenever the [US] troops leave," the articles warns, "all hell will break loose." Lister argues that stepping up, not a ramping down, US efforts in Syria is crucial now. Otherwise, "a catastrophic ISIS resurgence is just a matter of time." 
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