[GreyDynamics] Since the achievement of independence in 2011, South Sudan has been experiencing persistent insecurity. The civil war erupted in 2013 between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-opposition (SPLM-IO). Despite the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan in 2015 and its revitalisation (R-ARCRSS) in 2018, violence remains endemic. Additionally, the National Security Service systematically violates civil liberties and political rights. As the 2024 elections approach, the tensions between SPLM and SPLM-IO and civil society’s repression will likely rise.
Splitters!
Key Judgement 1: Despite the 2018 renewed peace agreement between SPLM and SPLM-IO, violence will highly likely remain endemic in South Sudan over the next 12 months. In particular, communal confrontations are a major insecurity factor.
- In December 2013, inner divisions inside the SSD leadership led to civil war. SSD former vice president, Riek Machar, organised the SPLM-IO opposing presidential faction, the SPLM and the national army. [source] [source]
- The conflict soon assumed an ethnic dimension. While Dinka’s majority sided with president Kiir, the Nuer people aligned with the SPLM-IO. [source]
And so forth. The other key points are below — details can be seen, with links to sources, at the original article — just click on the headline, above.
Key Judgement 2: It is highly likely that the multi-layered humanitarian insecurity in South Sudan will not improve over the next 12 months. Floods are heavily affecting the population, causing displacement, food insecurity and health issues.
Key Judgement 3: As the 2024 elections approach, South Sudan’s internal political situation will likely worsen over the next 12 months. The National Security Service arbitrarily represses dissent.
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