Article

2023-01-17 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Ukrainian Perspective: Invasion of Ukraine: January 16th, 2023

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Korrespondent] 23:16 The appointment of Gerasimov as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine means a return to the Russian offensive, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace believes: "The fact that Gerasimov personally assumed field command is certainly significant. This is the visible tip of the iceberg of factionalism in the Russian command. Putin, appears to be optimistic, and since Gerasimov's deference to the president is beyond doubt, a return to the Russian offensive can now be expected - no matter how many human lives it will require.

23:09 German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht resigned amid a series of political mistakes, as well as growing pressure on Berlin regarding military assistance to Ukraine. Lambrecht decided to leave her post ahead of the decisive meeting of the Western Allies at Ramstein Air Base. At this meeting, Berlin must decide whether it will send the Leopard to Kyiv and whether it will give a green light to Poland to re-export the tanks. Read more in the article Is Kiev to blame?

23:03 Investigators of the Dossier Center found out that the Wagner PMC units in Soledar are commanded by Anton Elizarov - he previously served in the Airborne Forces and in the special forces department of the GRU. In 2014, Elizarov received three years in prison for fraud in the case of the privatization of a service apartment. He sued the Ministry of Defense, but ultimately lost the case, after which he was evicted from his apartment in 2016. Then he signed a contract with PMC Wagner.

22:59 Zelensky, following a meeting with the head of the OSCE, Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia Bujar Osmani, said that this is "one of those international organizations that have significant potential, but for various reasons in critical situations have a large lack of specific actions, a large lack of determination ".

"The OSCE can significantly increase attention and act accordingly on the issue of deportation of our people from the occupied territory to Russia. And on the situation with Ukrainian prisoners. Not a single international organization has yet found the strength to gain access to the places where our prisoners are kept on the territory Russia. This should be corrected. I hope that the chairmanship of North Macedonia in the OSCE will contribute to this," the President stressed.

22:46 Zelensky said that he had discussed protection against Russian missiles and Iranian drones with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte: "And it is very important that our conversation took place on the eve of the visit of the Prime Minister of the Netherlands to the United States. What happened in Dnipro , the fact that Russia is preparing a new attempt to seize the initiative in the war, the fact that the nature of hostilities at the front requires new solutions in defense supply - all this only emphasizes how important it is to coordinate our efforts of all members of the coalition for the defense of Ukraine and freedom. decisions".

22:32 In an evening video message, Zelensky announced a very active week in terms of diplomacy: "The forum in Davos will start - Ukraine will be heard at this globally important platform. At the end of the week, another meeting in the Ramstein format is to be held. We expect fundamental decisions from the coalition of our partners. Bilateral talks are also planned.

According to the president, every day of such a diplomatic marathon brings Ukraine "very concrete defensive fruits." In particular, he cited an example from the UK: "A new package of defense assistance has been announced - what is needed. Tanks, other armored vehicles, artillery. What we discussed with Prime Minister Sunak."

21:47 The United States understands Ukraine's need to hit more distant targets than the existing systems are capable of reaching, and are conducting an appropriate dialogue with the Ukrainian side, US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs Colin Kahl said during a visit to Kiev: "As for long-range systems, such like ATACMS, we continue to hear interest in these systems. I think it is useful to focus not so much on this particular system, but on the need to hit more distant targets. "

"I will not go into details and say: we are aware of this need in the current status, and we are discussing how Ukraine can cope with this challenge. I will not specify what systems we can talk about, but we will continue the appropriate dialogue with Ukrainian colleagues," - added a Pentagon spokesman.

21:40 In Dnipro, after a missile attack on an apartment building, 25 more people are wanted, the State Emergency Service reported. According to the latest data, 39 people were rescued (of which 6 were children), 40 people were killed (including 3 children), 77 people were injured (of which 14 were children). Also, a total of 47 reports of missing persons were received - of which 18 were found dead, four were found alive with relatives, in hospitals, and 25 people are wanted.

20:52 More than 12 attempts have been made on Zelensky since the beginning of the war, writes The Independent. According to the publication, at least two of them were prevented thanks to CIA intelligence. Thus, US intelligence warned Zelensky about the threat of assassination at a secret meeting in Kyiv before the start of the war.

20:25 A delegation of high-ranking US officials headed by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman visited Ukraine, Shmyhal said. "Our focus is on supporting people affected by the war, restoring energy after shelling, financial support. We also count on US assistance in restoring Ukraine. First of all, these funds will be used to restore people's housing," the prime minister said.

20:17 Putin instructed Gerasimov to seize Donbass by March, Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, said: “Still, we can talk about the priority direction for Rashists - this is Donbass. the leader of the war against Ukraine is the capture of Donbass and the formation of a certain security zone already before March."

Yusov recalled that Moscow has repeatedly changed the timing of the tasks. He also said that intelligence has information about signs that the Russians are preparing an offensive in the Zaporozhye direction: “This may indicate both direct preparation for offensive actions by the enemy, and certain deceptive actions in order to hide true intentions. All information is monitored ".

20:12 Russia may try to make a "final push" on the anniversary of a full-scale invasion or already in March, Danilov said in an interview with Suspilny: "It could be an anniversary. For them, these dates are for some reason sacred things. It could be in March. We must prepare for such events every day, and we are preparing."

19:39 Russia keeps about 11 thousand military personnel in Belarus, but there is no increase in groupings in the border areas, head of the State Border Service Sergei Deineko said: “Today, the number of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus is about 11 thousand military personnel. However, this figure changes daily due to the fact that the rotation of Russian units is taking place right now. We keep this under constant control."

19:27 Russia is dispersing a fake about a "big offensive": allegedly in the near future, a 600-700 thousandth group of invaders is ready to make a new attack. More details in the material Information Operation of the Russian Federation .

19:18 OSCE Chairman, Foreign Minister of North Macedonia Bujar Osmani, following a meeting with Zelensky in Kiev, called for the immediate return of the organization's field mission to Ukraine: "The mission will be of great importance on the ground, contributing to stability, security and human rights for all citizens."

19:09 Germany is deploying Patriot air defense systems to Poland - they will cover the logistics point where they collect military assistance to Ukraine, Spiegel writes. Three batteries will protect critical infrastructure near the border with Ukraine.

19:03 Great Britain announced the provision of the largest combat aid package to Ukraine to date. According to Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace, it includes:

a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks;

8 AS90 artillery mounts (more - at different stages of readiness);

100 armored vehicles, including the Bulldog armored personnel carrier;

dozens of UAVs;

100,000 artillery shells;

100 advanced missiles;

spare parts to support Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles.

19:01 Turkish Ombudsman Seref Malkok said that Ukraine and Russia are working on a large exchange in which 1,000 people can take part: "The Ukrainian Ombudsman handed over to the Russian side a list of 800 people. The Russian Ombudsman handed over a list of 200 people to the Ukrainian Ombudsman. If we can create the Istanbul Platform, these issues can be discussed more easily. We are in the process of creating this mechanism."

18:57 Zelensky said that for the second time since the beginning of the year he had a conversation with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte: “I am grateful to him for his willingness to continue working on strengthening Ukrainian air defense. In addition, they talked about possible scenarios for the development of events at the front and our joint activities in the near future".

18:20 With the beginning of joint tactical flight training with Russia in Belarus, the threat of air and missile strikes from the airspace of the Republic of Belarus is growing, because under the guise of joint training, the enemy has strengthened a combat aviation group near the Ukrainian border, the General Staff said in an evening summary . At the same time, no enemy offensive groupings were found in this direction.

According to the General Staff, on the territory of Russia, foreigners who are in line for obtaining Russian citizenship are invited to voluntarily be drafted into the Armed Forces and automatically receive a Russian passport. Also in Moscow, there is pressure on commercial structures in order to financially support the RF Armed Forces by transferring funds in the amount of 10 million rubles or more.

At the training ground of the Kadamovskaya Rostov region, in order to train and recruit the troops of the Russian Federation, the arrival of units with mobilized ones is expected. First of all, the additional staffing will concern PMC Wagner and BARS detachments, which are constantly losing personnel in Ukraine.

17:49 At the next meeting in the Ramstein format on January 20, the issue of supplying Leopard tanks to Ukraine will be discussed, Finnish Defense Minister Mikko Savola said. He stressed that in order to provide these tanks to Ukraine, a German permit for re-export is needed.

17:43 Slovakia has handed over to Ukraine the last of the promised - the eighth - Zuzana 2 self-propelled cannon howitzer, Defense Minister Yaroslav Nagy said. In addition to fulfilling the contract for the supply of eight howitzers, Slovakia has pledged to produce another 16 such vehicles for Ukraine, which will be jointly financed by Denmark, Germany and Norway.

17:35 The Norwegian authorities have confirmed that the Russian Andrey Medvedev, a former high-ranking member of the PMC Wagner, illegally crossed the border and asked for asylum. Medvedev's case was handed over to the Norwegian immigration police, and the Russian was transferred to Oslo, where he was placed in a center for violators of migration laws.

According to the Norwegian news agency NTB, Medvedev has been in hiding since he left the Wagner group on July 6 after a four-month contract expired. Russian Meduza writes that Medvedev was the commander of a unit that included Yevgeny Nuzhin, a Wagner mercenary whose execution was videotaped after returning from Ukrainian captivity in November.

The founder of the human rights project Gulagu.net, Vladimir Osechkin, said that this was the first time during the war that a former commander of one of Wagner's units fled from Russia to Europe. In addition, Medvedev agreed to testify against Prigogine. According to Osechkin, Medvedev witnessed many executions and extrajudicial killings by Prigozhin's security service. After Medvedev escaped, Prigozhin himself and his security service tried to detain him. Medvedev feared that he might be executed.

17:26 Attorney General Andrei Kostin claims that the GPU is aware of who gave the order to destroy a residential building in Dnipro: "We know for certain who exactly gave the order to destroy this residential building ... A missile, which, we are 99% sure , this house was destroyed - this is the same type of rocket that has already been used in other cases. We are talking about the strike on June 27 on the shopping center in Kremenchug, on July 1 - on Sergeevka in the Odessa region.

Kostin added that this missile is "virtually hypersonic" and very difficult to track. However, it is not an accurate weapon. The Prosecutor General stressed that in Sergeevka, Odessa region, and in Kremenchug, and in the Dnieper there was no military facility nearby.

Kostin also assured that the leadership of the Russian Aerospace Forces unit, which is responsible for all three of these strikes, has not changed: “That is, what they did in Sergeevka, in Kremenchug, in the Dnieper - all this, probably, is fully supported by the highest military political command of the aggressor country".

17:08 The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to defend in Soledar and on the outskirts of the city, said the speaker of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Cherevaty: "East of Ukraine remains the main direction of the aggressor's strike. The enemy has concentrated the main attack on the Bakhmut direction, especially in the Soledar area, where fighting is taking place .Ukrainian units continue to hold the defense in the city itself and on the outskirts."

Cherevaty also said that Russia lost more soldiers in the Bakhmut direction than the USSR during the ten years of the war in Afghanistan. According to him, the Russians continue to storm the entire Bakhmut direction using "cannon fodder": they launch numerous attacks on the corpses of their own soldiers. Their strategy has not changed since the Second World War.

16:47 Russia has hundreds of X-22 missiles, one of which hit an apartment building in Dnipro. According to Yury Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukraine used to have them in service as well, but some of them were transferred to Russia as payment for gas debts, and the other part was disposed of. Ukraine will be able to shoot down such missiles when it receives Patriot or SAMP / T systems from partners.

16:38 Putin spoke on the phone with Erdogan. The parties touched upon the issue of the exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine, primarily the wounded, discussed the implementation of the grain deal, the Kremlin said.

15:43 As a result of a rocket attack on a multi-storey building in the Dnieper, the death of 40 people was confirmed , including three children. 75 residents of the house were injured, including 14 children, the SBU reported. The security service has identified the Russians involved in this missile attack. According to preliminary data from the investigation, several dozen Russian servicemen were involved in the crime .

15:27 Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki during his visit to Berlin called on the German government to act decisively and supply Ukraine with all the necessary types of weapons: "We loudly demanded the presence of Patriot missile systems in Ukraine, and our voice was heard, for which we thank you. The defeat of Ukraine may become a prelude to World War III. Therefore, today there is no reason to block support for Kiev and postpone it indefinitely. I call on the German government to act decisively, providing Ukraine with all types of weapons."

14:50 Zelensky announced that he had held a meeting of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander: "We discussed the events on the front line, separately analyzed the situation in the Donetsk region and the South. We heard information about the possible actions of the aggressor in the near future. We do not lose sight of the fact that the enemy will prepare new missile strikes, Therefore, we are developing the most effective countermeasures. In conclusion, we settled on providing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with ammunition and training tactical level commanders."

14:38 The EU regards the missile attack on a residential high-rise building in Dnipro as a sign of escalation and discusses its possible response to this, EU speaker Peter Stano said: "This is another example of how the Putin regime continues to foment this conflict, and the position of the EU has always been respond to any signs of escalation.We are now talking about the increase in targeting civilians in their homes after Russia decided to hit critical infrastructure important for people to survive the winter.This is another sign that the regime wants to escalate and doesn't want de-escalation."

In light of the approaching anniversary of the Russian invasion, the EU is keeping a close eye on the situation, he said: “This issue will be discussed at the upcoming meeting of EU foreign ministers next Monday. how to respond to the ongoing aggression and what to do in response to the latest signs of the Kremlin's escalation continues."

14:07 "Governor" of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev said that the air defense and the Black Sea Fleet allegedly shot down ten out of ten "Ukrainian drones" today, there are no damaged objects.

13:58 The OSCE stated that there are no observers in the Donbas, and cars with the corresponding logo that could be seen in eastern Ukraine are not used by the organization: "If you see any cars with OSCE markings in the Donbas, you can be sure that they are not being used for OSCE purposes."

Earlier, videos appeared on social networks with allegedly OSCE vehicles in Donbas. The special monitoring mission of the organization finally left Ukraine in March 2022.

13:36 In the Lugansk region, the Russians are closing cities for entry and exit due to the approaching front line, said the head of the OVA Serhiy Gaidai. According to him, the Ukrainian command understands the plans of the enemy and is proactive. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving towards Kremennaya and Svatovo.

13:03 Speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat considers the scenario of a Russian landing in Kiev or on the territory of Ukraine unrealistic: “Today, this is generally an unrealistic scenario ... Then the enemy failed, and it will not succeed now. Because it’s easy to fly so it will not be possible to land troops from the Il-76 to the capital in any way. I think that it will not be possible to fly to the border either. "

According to Ignat, the situation now is different from February 24, when the occupiers made a surprise attack on the outskirts of Kyiv. Now the defense forces are ready to adequately meet the enemy. The main thing is to get help from Western partners.

12:51 Trucks with enemy manpower began to arrive in Mariupol from the Donetsk direction, Petr Andryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of the city, said. Some of them are located in Belosaraiskaya Spit. More than ten trucks arrived this morning alone. In this regard, Mariupol began additional recruitment of cooks and service personnel in "boarding houses", which are actually new barracks.

12:35 Peskov said that the Russian military allegedly does not strike at residential buildings and the social infrastructure of Ukraine. And the conflict between the Ministry of Defense and Wagner, in his words, "exists only in the information space."

12:26 Ukraine and the EU signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the provision of 18 billion euros of macro-financial assistance in 2023, Shmyhal said. This week, the first tranche of 3 billion euros is expected to arrive. The Prime Minister noted that this will help maintain macroeconomic stability and finance all critical expenses in a war.

12:23 German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has resigned. She was criticized, in particular, for insufficient assistance to Ukraine and for her lack of experience in defense matters.

12:14 In the morning, the Russians hit Kherson with artillery. As a result of getting into an apartment building and a boarding school building in the Dnipro district, according to preliminary information, one person died, said the head of the OVA, Yaroslav Yanushevich. Also, the Russians once again attacked the regional children's clinical hospital - the neonatal building was damaged, which was empty, so there were no wounded.

11:58 OSCE Chairman, Foreign Minister of North Macedonia Bujar Osmani said that he had arrived in Kiev: "We are looking forward to productive meetings with Ukrainian leaders to discuss ways to strengthen security and stability in the region and provide assistance to people on the ground."

11:52 Ukraine's allies have provided more than 4,000 weapons since the start of the full-scale war, Bloomberg calculated. These are ballpark figures that may include weapons promised but not yet delivered:

410 Soviet-era tanks from Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and other post-Soviet countries;

300 armored vehicles, including 250 Soviet-made infantry fighting vehicles from post-Soviet countries;

1100 armored personnel carriers, including 300 M113 and 250 M117, more than 160 M113;

mobile infantry vehicles - 1540 units, including 1250 HMMWVs;

300 towed howitzers, of which more than 210 M777 155mm howitzers and 72 US 105mm howitzers;

more than 400 units of self-propelled artillery, of which 180 are on order;

38 HIMARS systems and over 40 Soviet-era 122mm MLRS from Poland and the Czech Republic;

18 Su-25 attack aircraft, 31 Soviet-made helicopters, 30 Bayraktar drones, hundreds of Switchblades;

37 German self-propelled anti-aircraft systems Gepard;

8 US-made NASAMS rocket batteries;

one American and one German Patriot missile battery;

6 Strela-10Ms missile systems from the Czech Republic and 6 Stormer missile systems from the UK.

11:29 As of the morning of January 16, the deficit in the energy system has grown significantly, Ukrenergo reported. This is due to a decrease in electricity production due to rocket attacks on power plants, as well as an increase in consumption with the start of the working week. Reduced consumption limits for the whole day have been brought to the oblenergos. Due to their excess, emergency shutdowns were introduced in four regions from 9:00, and from 10:00 - in five regions of Ukraine. It is also possible to use emergency shutdowns in other regions.

The situation is complicated by weather conditions (gusty wind, icing of wires), in the central region there are blackouts due to damage in distribution networks.

11:03 As a result of a night rocket attack on a residential area in the center of Zaporozhye, a five-story house was damaged by a blast wave, five people were injured from debris and glass, including two children, said the head of the OVA Alexander Starukh.

11:00 "Governor" of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev said that today three drones have already been shot down over the sea, air defense allegedly continues to repel the attack.

10:27 About 100 Ukrainian soldiers arrived in Oklahoma to be trained on the Patriot air defense system. The Pentagon said it has developed an accelerated training program for the Ukrainians, which should take several months. Standard training lasts from six months to a year.

10:19 According to the specialized publication Defense Express, on January 14, the Russians attacked Kiev with new S-400 missiles. While working on ground targets, its range is 230 km, and the weight of the warhead is 180 kg. Russia used such missiles for the second time - the first time the same debris was found near the destroyed private house in Protasov Yar and in the destroyed Alfavito hotel during rocket attacks on the capital on December 31.

10:15 A joint tactical flight exercise with Russia has started in Belarus, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus reports. The main goal of the exercise, as stated in the department, is "increasing interoperability in the joint performance of combat training tasks." All airfields and ranges of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are involved in the exercise.

09:48 An expanded training program for the Ukrainian military from American instructors has begun in Germany, said Mark Milley, head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. According to him, over the next 5-8 weeks, it is planned to train about 500 people. The program includes work with different types of weapons and the development of joint actions and coordination of units of different types - infantry, mechanized brigades, artillery. The training will begin with theory and small group work and will gradually progress to the stage of complex exercises at the BTG level.

09:29 British intelligence reports that Ukraine probably maintains positions in Soledar despite the attacks of Wagner PMCs - fierce battles continued there over the weekend. Analysts also write about the fighting in the Kremennaya Lugansk region, which was characterized by a complex series of local attacks and counterattacks in a wooded area. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their gradual advance towards the outskirts of Kremennaya.

The key task for both sides is to create units of combat-ready troops not yet involved in the front, which will be able to use tactical successes to create operational breakthroughs, according to the British Ministry of Defense.

09:23 In the Kherson region over the past day due to Russian shelling, three people were killed, 14 were injured, the head of the OVA, Yaroslav Yanushevich, said.

09:21 In the Donetsk region over the past day, as a result of Russian shelling, seven civilians were injured - two each in Bakhmut and Avdiivka, one each in Velyka Novoselka, Liman and Soledar, said the head of the OVA Pavel Kirilenko.

09:10 In the morning, the enemy once again fired at Kupyansk - a private household and an apartment building were damaged, two people were injured, Oleg Sinegubov, head of the OVA, said.

08:59 The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Kremlin is likely to launch a decisive strategic operation over the next six months to seize the initiative and end Ukraine's string of operational successes. Analysts recalled that over the past 11 months, Russia has failed to achieve most of its main operational goals in Ukraine - to capture Kyiv, as well as the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, to hold onto gains in the Kharkiv region or Kherson. The Russian air and missile campaign directed against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, led by General Sergei Surovikin, also did not lead to significant operational consequences and did not demoralize Ukrainian society, as the Kremlin probably intended.

At the same time, ISW experts are convinced that Putin has not abandoned his aggressive goals and is already changing the fundamental approaches to the conduct of the war. In particular, the Kremlin is stepping up both short-term and long-term efforts to build up its armed forces, trying to rebuild its military-industrial base. Putin also recentralizes control over military operations in Ukraine under the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and appointed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov as commander of military operations. The Kremlin is also strengthening the preparation of the Russian information space to support the war.

08:47 The General Staff announced the approximate losses of the enemy as of the morning of January 16th.

personnel - about 116,080 (+790) people liquidated,

tanks - 3118 (+12),

armored combat vehicles - 6204 (+21),

artillery systems - 2099 (+5),

MLRS - 438 (+1),

air defense systems - 220 (+1),

aircraft - 286 (+0),

helicopters - 276 (+0),

UAV operational-tactical level - 1872 (+0),

cruise missiles - 749 (+0),

ships/boats - 17 (+0),

automotive equipment and tankers - 4870 (+24),

special equipment - 190 (+3).

08:26 The enemy is conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdeevsky directions and suffers significant losses in manpower, the General Staff said in the morning report . Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the invaders in the areas of the settlements of Belogorovka, Luhansk region and Verkhnekamenskoe, Krasnopolevka, Spornoe, Sol, Bakhmut, Kleshcheevka, Novobakhmutovka, Velyka Novoselka, Prechistovka, Krasnogorovka, Pobeda, Novomikhailovka, Vodianoe, Mayorsk and Marinka, Donetsk region.

07:28 In Dnipro, the number of people killed as a result of an enemy strike on a multi-storey building has increased to 35 people, including two children. 75 people were injured, including 14 children. 39 residents of the house were saved, the fate of another 35 is unknown , said the head of the OVA, Valentin Reznichenko. The search and rescue operation lasts almost 40 hours.

05:51 U.S. military officials are amazed at the ingenuity of Ukrainian defenders on the battlefield. At the same time, Ukraine has become a military laboratory for finding cheap but effective solutions, CNN writes, citing unnamed US officials. According to them, Ukraine has developed dozens of innovations on the battlefield , "often finding cheap solutions to expensive problems."

02:55 As a result of the Russian attack on Zaporozhye, three people were hospitalized with injuries, including two children of nine and 15 years old, said Anatoly Kurtev, secretary of the City Council.

01:37 The enemy launched a missile attack on Zaporozhye and the suburbs. There is destruction of civil, residential and industrial infrastructure. Information was received about several lightly wounded, said the head of the OVA Alexander Starukh.

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