Article

2022-06-21 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

US intel officials admit they didn't see that Russia's military was a 'hollow force.' Here's what they did see and how they missed it.

[Business Insider] More than 100 days after Russia renewed its attack on Ukraine, and the world has seen that the Russian military isn't what it was believed to be.

The Russian force the US military and intelligence agencies believed to be a near-peer adversary hasn't shown up. The force that did appear had its main thrust blunted by smaller Ukrainian units. After taking heavy casualties and achieving few objects, Moscow pulled back its troops and lowered its ambitions.

Something was off in US assessments of Russia's military, and the Pentagon and intelligence community have admitted that they missed indications that Moscow was in fact fielding a "hollow force."

The US intelligence community is conducting an internal review of its processes after underestimating Ukrainian resolve and overestimating Russian military capabilities.

The faulty assessment in Ukraine comes after the Pentagon's extremely poor assessment of the Afghan military, which US leaders thought would be able to hold off the Taliban for months after the US withdrawal.

During a Senate Armed Services committee hearing in May, lawmakers questioned Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, about their agencies' assumptions in Ukraine, focusing on assessments that Kyiv would fall in three to four days and that the war would last only two weeks.

"We assessed their capacity to face the size of the Russian forces that were amassed on their border was going to be very difficult for them," Berrier said of the Ukrainians.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-21 09:17|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ] Top

#1 Too busy with the Trump-RU probe.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-21 09:23|| 2022-06-21 09:23|| Front Page Top

#2 Too busy being woke.

Posted by Chris 2022-06-21 09:47|| 2022-06-21 09:47|| Front Page Top

#3 You don't enhance your budget by saying the problems you are charged with monitoring / addressing are "meh..."

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-21 09:51|| 2022-06-21 09:51|| Front Page Top

#4 I seem to remember during the Obama administration officials saying Russia is a regional power with nucs. What changed?
Why were they correct then and not now?

Posted by Ebbuger Whuque4103 2022-06-21 10:13|| 2022-06-21 10:13|| Front Page Top

#5 ^ Then, the Bath House junta wanted to divert military spending to "other priorities." Now they just spend from the Magic Monetary Theory Tree™. No need to set priorities.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-21 10:23|| 2022-06-21 10:23|| Front Page Top

#6 Where's all the trolls?

Posted by Skidmark 2022-06-21 10:45|| 2022-06-21 10:45|| Front Page Top

#7 ...too early in the day to get the talking points out.

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-06-21 10:47|| 2022-06-21 10:47|| Front Page Top

#8 Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, about their agencies' assumptions in Ukraine, focusing on assessments that Kyiv would fall in three to four days and that the war would last only two weeks.

Remember this when the 'boys' keep citing 'experts' in their postings.

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-06-21 10:51|| 2022-06-21 10:51|| Front Page Top

#9 sadly, our military isn't in as good shape as it should be

and, like the Russian military, our problems are self inflicted

Posted by Lord Garth 2022-06-21 11:14|| 2022-06-21 11:14|| Front Page Top

#10 ^^^^
I actually laughed my ass off seeing this. My God, what a joke!

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/navy-lgbt-video-pronouns-military

Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-06-21 13:13|| 2022-06-21 13:13|| Front Page Top

#11 Actually, a few swabbies taking time off from critical pronoun indoctrination training pulled off a pretty cool multi-domain SINKEX recently.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-21 13:15|| 2022-06-21 13:15|| Front Page Top

#12 It's no surprise if our vaunted "intelligence" community is mistaken about Russia. It wouldn't be the first time. But remember that Hitler found out the hard way how badly mistaken he was about Russia in December 1941 outside Moscow. Even if he looks weak and pathetic, Putin might have reserves that Biden and Zelensky will learn about the hard way.

Posted by Abu Uluque 2022-06-21 13:33|| 2022-06-21 13:33|| Front Page Top

#13 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/navy-lgbt-video-pronouns-military

Posted by Skidmark 2022-06-21 14:11|| 2022-06-21 14:11|| Front Page Top

#14 But remember that Hitler found out the hard way how badly mistaken he was about Russia in December 1941 outside Moscow.

*Yawn*

If it weren't for lend-lease, Stalin would have made peace with Hitler in exchange for who knows how much territory.

Posted by Rob Crawford 2022-06-21 16:36|| 2022-06-21 16:36|| Front Page Top

07:39 Procopius2k
07:36 Procopius2k
07:35 Procopius2k
07:34 trailing wife
07:31 Procopius2k
07:30 NN2N1
07:22 NN2N1
07:18 trailing wife
07:14 Richard Aubrey
07:10 NN2N1
07:09 Besoeker
07:03 NN2N1
06:58 NN2N1
06:58 Besoeker
05:28 Whiskey Mike
05:23 Whiskey Mike
05:21 Whiskey Mike
05:18 Whiskey Mike
05:15 Whiskey Mike
05:13 Whiskey Mike
05:08 Whiskey Mike
05:05 Whiskey Mike
05:03 Whiskey Mike
03:23 Besoeker